Africa accounts for only 4% of global wheat production

Deidre Carter — Wed, 08 Aug 2018 09:09:24 +0000

The International Grains Council forecasts Africa’s 2018/19 wheat production at 27.4 million tonnes, up by 3 percent from the previous season due to expectations of a fairly good harvest in South Africa. While this is a welcome development, the continent remains a small player in the global wheat market accounting for roughly 4 percent of the expected 721 million tonnes in the 2018/19 season.
The leading wheat producing countries within the African continent are Egypt, Morocco, Ethiopia, Algeria, South Africa and Tunisia, accounting for 31 percent, 26 percent, 16 percent, 11 percent, 7 percent and 4 percent, respectively. The remaining 5 percent is produced by other countries within the continent.
This, however, will not fulfil the continent’s annual wheat needs. Africa’s 2018/19 wheat imports are estimated at 52 million tonnes, roughly unchanged from the previous season. The North African countries are the largest importers as bread is one of the staple foods in a number of countries such as Egypt, Algeria and Morocco. These three countries collectively account for 47 percent of Africa’s wheat imports.
In the Sub-Saharan region, the largest wheat importers are Nigeria, Sudan, Kenya, South Africa and Ethiopia, which collectively account for 25 percent of Africa’s wheat imports in the 2018/19 season. The key supplies of wheat to the continent are largely the Black Sea countries, the US, and as well as the European Union countries.
On the domestic front, the International Grains Council forecasts South Africa’s 2018/19 wheat production at 1.7 million tonnes, which is 13 percent higher than the previous season’s harvest. This is on the back an expansion in area planted and expectations of better yields in some parts of the country.
This past weekend, the leading wheat producing province, Western Cape, received light and scattered showers which are a welcome development, albeit not being sufficient to replenish soil moisture. The weather forecast for the week shows prospects of continuous rainfall over most parts the province.

Click HERE to read the full report by Wandile Sihlobo

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The African continent is far from being self-sufficient in wheat production

Arithmus — Tue, 09 Oct 2018 13:12:01 +0000

The African continent is far from being self-sufficient in wheat production. The 2018/19 wheat imports are estimated at 51 million tonnes, which is almost double the volume produced in the same season.
This, however, is concentrated in a few countries, namely; Egypt, Algeria and Nigeria which account for more than half of the expected import volume. This is partially explained by the fact that bread is a staple food, specifically in Egypt and Algeria. The other notable wheat importers in the African continent are Morocco, Tunisia, Libya, Kenya, Ethiopia, South Africa and Sudan.
This is likely to remain the key theme over the next couple of years as there are no convincing wheat breeding or production plans in the pipeline in many countries. In South Africa, the wheat industry is currently doing research on ways to boost yields, but the outcome of these efforts might take time to materialise.
The expected 18 percent annual improvement in South Africa’s wheat production in the 2018/19 production season to 1.8 million tonnes has largely been driven by an increase in area planted and expected higher yield following improvement in weather conditions.
The other countries that set to record an uptick in wheat production, albeit remaining net importers, are Algeria and Morocco with the 2018/19 harvest estimate at 2.9 million tonnes and 7.3 million tonnes, respectively.
The import dependency exposes the African continent exposed to shocks in the global wheat market. A case in point is the 2018/19 production season, where the expected 6 percent annual decline in global wheat production to 717 million tonnes could lead to tight supplies and in turn higher prices. These higher prices might translate to food price increases for the net importing African markets, which could reduce local demand.

Click HERE for the full report.

Sourced: Agbiz Morning Market Viewpoint on Agri-Commodities

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Africa accounts for only 4% of global wheat production

The African continent is far from being self-sufficient in wheat production