Dit is só dat die jaarlikse nasionale begrotingsrede ‘n geleentheid in Suid-Afrika is waarvan daar groot gewag gemaak word. Tesame met die positiewe veranderinge wat tans plaasvind in die politieke landskap, word daar verwag dat die Februarie 2018-begrotingsrede beslis aandag sal geniet – nie net van die besigheidsektor en individue binne Suid-Afrika nie maar ook buite die land.

Graderingsagentskappe sal fyn luister na die begrotingsrede. Volgens Agri SA se president, Dan Kriek, bestaan daar ‘n risiko dat Suid-Afrika verdere kredietafgradings in die gesig kan staar indien die begrotingsrede nie die graderingsagentskappe gerusstel nie; daarom sal die begroting hierdie agentskappe tevrede moet stel dat Suid-Afrika verbind is tot handhawing van die geloofwaardigheid van sy fiskale raamwerk en bestedingsplafon.

Volgens die mediumtermynbegrotingsraamwerk (MTBR) van Oktober verlede jaar, sou Suid-Afrika belastinginkomstetekorte van ongeveer R50,8 miljard vir 2017 en R69,3 miljard in 2018 aanteken. Teen 2020/21 sal ongeveer 15% van die staat se inkomste bestee word om skuld af te betaal. Die land se begrotingstekort word gestel op 61% van die bruto binnelandse produk (BBP) teen 2020/21.

Die befondsing van gratis tersiêre onderrig[1] en sukkelende ondernemings in staatsbesit (SOE’s) is sleutel oorwegings vir die opkomende begroting. Die Suid-Afrikaanse Lugdiens (SAA) en Eskom is voorbeelde van SOE’s wat ‘n geweldige las op die fiskus plaas. Daar word geraam dat SAA befondsing van ongeveer R8 miljard teen Maart 2018 en Eskom ongeveer R20 miljard teen Mei/Junie 2018 sal benodig.

Die begroting sal ‘n duidelike aanduiding moet gee van die spesifieke stappe en strategieë wat gevolg sal word om te verseker dat die stygende begrotingstekort in toom gehou word. Gedempte ekonomiese groei, beperk die potensiaal vir aansienlike belastingverhogings sonder om ekonomiese groei verder te kortwiek. Die Wêreldbank verwag dat Suid-Afrika se BBP op 1,1% in 2018 en 1,7% in 2019/20 te staan sal kom.

Die verwagting is egter dat belastinginkomste met ten minste R30 miljard sal toeneem. Agri SA hoop dat uitgawe-besnoeiing, en veral verkwisting, asook besparingsmaatreëls, ‘n aansienlike komponent van die spesifieke stappe en strategieë soos uiteengesit in die begrotingsrede sal uitmaak. Enige belastingverhoging moet die bestaande las op ‘n reeds oorbelaste belastingbasis in ag neem.

Terwyl beter toegang tot tersiêre onderrig ‘n prysenswaardige doelwit is, behoort verhoogde effektiwiteit van bestaande besteding aan onderrig, byvoorbeeld beter gehalte primêre en sekondêre onderwys, ook oorweeg word. Stappe om die doeltreffendheid en effektiwiteit van SOE’s te verbeter is uiters noodsaaklik. Verkwiste uitgawes moet uitgeskakel word en uitermatige vergoeding aan die senior bestuur van sukkelende SOE’s moet herevalueer word.

Die landbou het ongelukkig relatief min aandag in die mediumtermynbegrotingsraamwerk (MTBR) van Oktober verlede jaar geniet. Die landbousektor was die beste presteerder oor drie kwartale van 2017 en die grootste bydraer tot die 2%-groei in BBP in die derde kwartaal. Daar was geen verwysing in die MTBR na die landbousektor se bydrae tot ekonomiese groei of na die swaarkry van boere wat deur voortslepende droogtes geaffekteer word nie. ‘n Verdere rede vir kommer is die gebeurlikheidsreserwe wat tot ‘n skamele R16 miljard oor die volgende drie jaar verminder is. Dit was onduidelik watter impak dit sou hê op noodhulp in krisissituasies soos die hardnekkige droogte.

Die droogtesituasie in die Oos-, Noord- en veral Wes-Kaap hou steeds ‘n geweldige risiko in vir voedselproduksie, die impak waarvan mettertyd duidelik sal word, en verg dus dringend aandag.

Agri SA hoop dat die landbou meer aandag in die 2018-begroting sal geniet. Die organisasie beveel aan dat die begroting toereikende hulpbronne beskikbaar sal stel om die impak van die droogte op boere te versag en voorsiening sal maak vir die nodige infrastruktuur om die landboubedryf se mededingendheid ‘n hupstoot te gee en sodoende ‘n verbetering in voedselproduksie en werksgeleenthede in die sektor bewerkstellig.

[1] Vir studente in huishoudings met ‘n gesamentlike jaarlikse inkomste van R350 000.

Uitgereik deur Agri SA, Direktoraat:  Korporatiewe Skakeling

Navrae

Dr Requier Wait, Hoof: Ekonomie en Handel, Agri SA, 012-643 3400 of 073 304 0932

Mnr Hamlet Hlomendlini, Hoof-ekonoom, Agri SA, 012-643 3400 of 082 957 9064

The post Agri SA se verwagtinge van die 2018-begrotingsrede appeared first on Agri Limpopo.

“Agri SA therefore wholeheartedly supports the economic solutions outlined in the State of the Nation Address to turn the country around and to create a future of hope, social cohesion and prosperity for all” Dan Kriek, President of Agri SA stated.

Significant emphasis was placed on the need to create jobs, advancing transformation and establishing an ethical, caring and service orientated state fraternity at municipal level, provincial and national level. Agri SA also welcomes the announcement to clamp down on corruption in state departments as well as the private sector.

We enthusiastically applaud the practical steps outlined to ensure policy certainty, reduce government departments, grow the local economy, attract investments, boost the manufacturing sector and grow the small business environment, Kriek added.

The establishment of local economic zones, the review of SARS and state-owned enterprises, appointment of the right people as well as implementing a wide range of social and economic interventions in the small business sector, agriculture, mining, tourism and other sectors are also welcomed. Agri SA pledges its co-operation to ensure the achievement of all the outcomes related to these plans.

Prioritising the economy and the role of entrepreneurs was also a key feature of the address. Agri SA, therefore, calls on the President to seize the opportunity and exploit the goodwill on offer from local and international investors. The emphasis on promoting partnerships between business, labour, government and the public is to be welcomed as well as the plans outlined to develop our young people.

However, such a bold vision cannot be tarnished by excluding anyone or a particular community. The plans announced by the President should be inclusive of all the people of South Africa regardless of race, colour, religious creed, national origin, ancestry, sex, sexual orientation, age or physical constraints.

The National Constitution demands of all of us to build a united and non-racial society and to nurture the talent and honour the contribution of all our people. South Africa remains a highly divided nation and it is through honouring the dignity of every South African, inclusivity and mutual respect that this divide can be bridged.

However, Agri SA is highly concerned with the contradictory statements related to acknowledging agriculture as the biggest contributor the past quarters in terms of economic growth and job creation, whilst in the same breath calling for the expropriation of land without compensation. Not only does it subvert the letter and spirit of Section 25 of our National Constitution, but it also entrenches the perception that the governing party has no regard for the founding principles of our newly founded democracy.

The question also remains: From whom will land be expropriated and to whom will it be given? Such populist statements will do more harm than good and contradicts the underlying theme of the State of the Nation Address to grow the sector through investment to unleash its fullest potential.

Agri SA, therefore, appeals to the President to rather desist from such populist rhetoric and to engage with the commercial agricultural industry to find amicable solutions to the land question.

Agri SA is developing its own land transformation plan that will be commercially driven and will aim to increase national production significantly without having to change the constitution – Omri van Zyl (Executive Director) added.

“Undermining the notion of private ownership and still expecting the private sector to enthusiastically embrace partnerships between themselves and the state will not happen” van Zyl added.

It is through win-win partnerships and policy certainty that the vision of a safe, productive and content South African society can be realised.   

 Issued by Agri SA, Directorate:  Corporate Liaison

Enquiries

Mr Dan Kriek, President Agri SA, 082 944 0566

Mr Omri van Zyl, Executive Director, Agri SA, 082 417 5724

The post Agri SA Media Release: State of Nation Address appeared first on Agri Limpopo.

Click HERE to read the full report by Wandile Sihlobo

The post SA maize harvest activity is gaining momentum appeared first on Agri Limpopo.

I keep a close eye on the Zimbabwe agricultural sector because of its potential impact on regional demand. Since the collapse of the sector after the land reform programme in the early 2000s, the country has been one of the key markets for South African maize.

On average, South Africa’s maize exports to Zimbabwe accounted for nearly a third of overall maize exports between 2001 and 2017, according to Trade Map data. This came to a halt in October, when Zimbabwe banned maize imports after a recovery in domestic production to 2.2 million tons – its largest harvest in 23 years.

However, this season’s production estimates point to a lower harvest.

Recent data from the US Department of Agriculture shows that Zimbabwe’s 2017-18 maize production could reach 1.2million tons, 46% lower than last season’s bumper crop. This is largely due to a reduction in area planted, lower yields in some areas and unfavourable weather early in the season.

The expected decline puts the country in a net importing position, but it might not require the large volume seen in the past couple of years as the expected harvest is still higher than some years before the drought of 2015-16. Moreover, if the Zimbabwe Grain Marketing Board is to be relied on, there are about 500 000 tons of maize from the previous season. This means the total supply for the 2018-19 marketing year could amount to about 1.7 million tons.

Given that Zimbabwe’s annual maize consumption could vary between 1.8million and 1.9million tons, the country will still need to import to supplement domestic supplies, so the government would have to lift the maize import ban. This presents a small window of opportunity for South African farmers and traders to exploit.

The volume available is not large – about 720 000 tons, according to national supply and demand estimates committee data. The rest of the estimated 2.4 million tons of maize exports for the 2018-19 marketing year is yellow maize, which should flow to the world market. A large share of white maize exports may go to other regional markets.

It is worth noting that there might be limited competition in the 2018-19 marketing year in traditional African export markets from countries such as Zambia and Malawi. They are set to record a decline in maize production.

South Africa will also record a decline in production from last season’s record, but there will still be large supplies. This week, the crop estimates committee lifted its estimate from last month for 2017-18 maize production by 2% to 13.2 million tons.

Considering the domestic annual maize need of about 10.8 million tons, on the back of expected production coupled with an opening stock of 3.7 million tons, South Africa could see maize exports exceed the aforementioned estimate of 2.4 million tons in the 2018-19 marketing year, which ends on April 30.

Overall, the key fact is that Zimbabwe will again be a net importer of maize in the 2018-19 marketing year.

Most important, South African maize traders and farmers will have to look further afield for maize export markets, as the surplus might not all be absorbed by regional markets.

Sihlobo is head of agribusiness research at the Agricultural Business Chamber. 

Source: Business Live

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Click HERE to read the full report by Wandile Sihlobo

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Click HERE to read the full report by Wandile Sihlobo

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Every farmer, land owner and disappointed beneficiary or aspirant beneficiary of land reform, who had been delivered to these land officials, know this. The High Level Panel of previous president Kgalema Mothlante wrote this in its report, and
no one knows why their findings are being ignored by the ANC in its position on Expropriation without Compensation.

The ANC government could not meet any of its land reform targets since 1996, simply because it never budgeted to buy the land it identified for transfers. Underspending of budgets, legal battles lost with costs, and suspicious transactions such as Mala-Mala, where a billion rand had been spent on a shady deal to benefit everyone involved but the intended land claims beneficiaries, are only a few stones in the shoes of land reform which are covered up by blaming the constitution.

The ANC now wants to “test “ the constitution by expropriating 139 farms for different reasons and in different circumstances, to see how close it will allow the state to expropriate without compensation. It expects landowners and their representatives to take the matter to the courts, which will apply the “just and equatable” principle to determine compensation.

Agri Limpopo fears that the ANC is holding a gun to the heads of the judges, who know that the party will use their judgements as an excuse to change the constitution when the outcomes don’t go their way. The ANC is not clear on whether they expect all, or most, or only some judgements to limit the state’s powers to act beyond what is just and equatable before they use it as an excuse
to change the constitution.

The real judges in these 139 expropriation cases will however not be the judges in the courts, but investors both locally and internationally, and South Africa will read their judgements in the growth statistics and gains or losses in the rural jobs
markets. The ANC is yet to regain the moral high ground for embarking on this trajectory of expropriation without compensation, given its sad recent history of state capture, failing basic services and parastatals, and massive job losses under its watch.

Agri Limpopo is clear on this issue: government needs to be honest with itself and all stakeholders about land reform and what they really mean by it, ensure that the state does have the capacity to seen their plan through, do proper budgeting and see to it that budgets are spent on what it is intended for, stop the deviding rethoric based on false assumptions of land theft and populistic racial jargon.

Agri Limpopo has a long standing record for promoting the implementation of the amended model for land reform in chapter 6 of the NDP. Time wasted on searching somewhere else for solutions to failed land reform, could have been better spent if the High Level Report and the NDP were searched for the answers and time was spend to build onto much work already done to fine tune the model of chapter 6.

Enquiries:
Dr Theo de Jager – Chair of Agri Limpopo’s Agri Development committee 082 332 2110
Willem van Jaarsveld CEO Agri Limpopo 082 451 7913

The post Testing the constitution on expropriation appeared first on Agri Limpopo.

Click HERE to read the full report by Wandile Sihlobo

The post South African Agricultural Commodities Weekly Wrap appeared first on Agri Limpopo.

Agri SA again appeals to South Africans to contribute to Agri SA’s drought disaster fund in any way. Contributions have ranged from feed, diesel, trucks and financial donations and remains welcome. Since 2015, thousands of farmers and farm workers have benefitted from the fund. Agri SA is thankful – these communities need all the help we can give.

Agri SA could, with the help of various donations, make more than 200 deliveries of feed in drought areas to date. Food parcels and water were delivered to farmers, farmworkers and rural areas in 2016.

“Agri SA collaborates with other non-governmental organisations and role-players so as to help more people,” said Christo van der Rheede, Agri SA deputy executive director. “This cooperation is crucial to ensuring that drought aid is distributed as cost-effective, transparent and fair as possible.”

The Agri SA Drought Disaster Fund ensures that farms remain in production and that jobs and food security are protected.

“Let’s stand by our farmers and their workers by supporting them in their time of need.”

For more information visit Agri SA’s website at www.agrisa.co.za

For donations to Agri SA Drought Disaster Fund:

Agri SA

Bank: ABSA

Account Type: Cheque

Account Number: 40-6854-0775

Branch Code: 632 005

Reference: RAMP

 Enquiries:

 Christo van der Rheede

Agri SA Deputy Executive Director

C: 083 380 3492

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• The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is an important player in global agricultural trade, ranked the world’s 20th largest importer of agricultural products in 2017. Therefore, last week’s engagement between South Africa and the Kingdom’s Minister of Agriculture is of particular interest, as it focused on key areas that South Africa is already perusing as a way to ignite inclusive growth within the agricultural sector. These are areas of trade, investment, capacity building, research and development in the field of agriculture.
• From a data perspective, although expanded in the third quarter of last year, we expect South Africa’s agricultural economic growth to have contracted by roughly 4%-5% on a quarter-on-quarter seasonally-adjusted annualised rate in the fourth quarter of 2018.
• After registering a notable decline in January 2019, South Africa’s tractor sales could somewhat recover in February.
• South Africa’s weekly grain trade data is due for release on Thursday, 06 March 2019. This will mainly be maize and wheat. In terms of maize, we expect South Africa to be a net exporter in 2018/19 marketing year, with about 2.3 million tonnes (white and yellow maize). Looking ahead, South Africa is likely to remain a net exporter of maize in the 2019/20 marketing year which commences on 01 May 2019. The exports, however, could decline by half from the 2018/19 marketing year to about 1.1 million tonnes

In terms of wheat, we expect a 36% year-on-year decline to 1.4 million tonnes in South Africa’s 2018/19 imports.

Click here to view the full report.

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