RSA fruit: Yesterday the fruit market managed to claw back some of its recent losses with support coming from strong buying interest. The price of apples was up by 9% from the previous day, closing at R6.91 per kilogramme. The bananas and oranges prices were, respectively, up by 0.14% and 11% from the previous day, closing at R7.01 per kilogramme and R3.09 per kilogramme. 

Maize: The National Crop Estimate Committee (CEC) revised its maize production estimates up by 2% from the previous month to 15.97 million tonnes. This is above the market expectations of 15.80 million tonnes and doubles the previous season’s production of 7.78 million tonnes.

Wheat: The CEC’s preliminary wheat planting data shows that farmers reduced the area planted in 2017 by 2% from the previous season to 498 850 hectares. This decline in the area was due to some farmers switching to barley and canola owing to profitability reasons.  

Click here to read the Morning Market Viewpoint on Agri-Commodities for today.

Soybeans: In its sixth production estimate, the CEC maintained its soybean production estimate unchanged from last month at 1.34 million tonnes. This is 81% higher than the previous season and the biggest crop on record. 

Sunflower seed: The CEC left its production estimate unchanged from the previous month at 821 970 tonnes. This is 9% higher than the previous season due to expected higher yields. The harvest process is virtually over with above average yields reported in many areas of the country. This supports the CEC’s view of a relatively large crop this season. 

RSA Potatoes: The South African potatoes market lost ground in yesterday’s trade session and closed in negative territory due to relatively large stocks of 846 765 bags (10kg bags). The price was down by 5% from the previous day, closing at R28.67 per kilogramme.

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The annual food producer price inflation decelerated to 4.7% y/y in June 2017, from 5.7% y/y in May 2017. This shows the benefits of the higher agricultural output this year following good summer rainfall across the country. The deceleration was largely in grain, sugar, dairy, starches, and vegetable and fruit products. Meanwhile, meat and meat products accelerated due to on-going cattle herds restocking process resulting from the 2015-16 drought, as well as low base factors.

The general deceleration in food producer inflation is due to the recovery in agricultural production. The total production of summer grains and oilseeds is estimated at 18.44 million tonnes, which is a 96% annual increase. This has led to a widespread decline in agricultural commodity prices. White maize spot price currently trades at levels around R1 768 tonnes, which is 59% lower than the same period last year. Yellow maize spot price is trading at levels around R1 889 per tonne, which is 42% lower than the same period last year. Soybean spot price is at a level around R4 711 per tonne, which is a 31% annual decline. The decline in yellow maize and soybean prices will also benefit other sectors, such as the livestock and poultry.

While meat price inflation increased at the fastest pace of 17% y/y, there seems to be some level of improvement in slaughtering which could lift meat supply. The most recent data from the Red Meat Levy shows that farmers slaughtered 202 886 head of cattle in May 2017, up by 5% from the previous month.

Click here to read more.

Looking ahead – the large agricultural output will keep agricultural commodity prices under pressure over the short-to-medium term. This essentially means that food inflation also could remain at relatively lower levels. With that said, the recent outbreak of avian influenza in the poultry sector remains a risk. The virus has been reported in isolated farms in Mpumalanga, Free State and Gauteng. We will closely monitor the developments within the poultry industry in order to ascertain the impact on food inflation in the coming months.

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RSA fruit:

The fruit market was once again mixed in yesterday’s trade session. The price of apples was down by 2% from the previous day, closing at R7.16 per tonne due to large stocks of 240 969 tonnes. Meanwhile, the other products managed to claw back the recent losses due to strong buying interest and a subsequent decline in daily stocks. The prices of bananas and oranges were up by 1% and 10% from the previous day, closing at R6.04 per kilogramme and R3.20 per kilogramme, respectively.

Maize:

In areas that have already harvested, farmers received exceptional yields which support the National Crop Estimate Committee’s view of a possible record crop of 15.97 million tonnes this season. This is well above the 2016/17 crop of 7.78 million tonnes and a long term average production of 12.50 million tonnes.

Click here to read more.

Wheat:

The weather forecast has changed drastically. It currently shows a possibility of rainfall of between 16 and 30 millimetres across the Western Cape province within the next two weeks. This will not be sufficient to improve soil moisture but could bring relief after weeks of dryness. In order to realise notable improvements, the province needs roughly 60 millimetres.

Soybeans:

In the absence of major data releases, the domestic soybean market performance will largely be guided by the Chicago (soybean) price and domestic currency movements throughout the week. 

RSA Potatoes:

Large daily potatoes stocks of 1.049 million pockets (10kg) at the start of yesterday’s trade session added bearish pressure to the market. The price ended the day in negative territory, down 2% from the previous day and closing at R28.32 per 10kg pocket.

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The country will have over 4.00 million tonnes of maize in total as an exportable surplus for the 2017/18 marketing season.

Highlights in today’s morning note

Maize:

After the National Crop Estimate Committee revised its maize production forecast to 15.96 million tonnes in July, it has further lifted its forecast to 16.41 million tonnes – making this season’s crop the largest on record. White and yellow maize production estimates were revised up by 2% and 5% respectively from the previous estimate to 9.65 million and 6.76 million tonnes. In total, reaching a record level of 16.41 million tonnes.

Wheat:

The National Crop Estimate Committee’s first production estimate for wheat confirmed the market expectations of a possible lower harvest due to continuous drier weather conditions in key wheat producing provinces, as well as a decline in acreage.

Soybeans:

It almost seems as if the market has run out of the bullish news, the spot and March 18 contract month prices opened lower in yesterday’s trade session and remained under pressure throughout. The relatively stronger domestic currency, selling pressure and lower Chicago soybean prices were the key factors driving the market.

Click here to read more.

Sunflower seed:

The National Crop Estimate Committee surprised the market with an upward revision of 6% in sunflower seed production from the previous estimate to 870 095 tonnes. This is 15% higher than the previous season due to an increase in area plantings, as well as higher yields.

SAFEX Beef Carcass:

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, it was again a quiet day in the SAFEX beef carcass market. The price remained flat at R46.00 per kilogramme due to thinly traded volumes. This means that the SAFEX beef carcass prices could differ from the physical market prices.

RSA Fruit:

The fruit market closed on a mixed footing in yesterday’s trade session. The prices of bananas and oranges were up by 13% and 5% from the previous day, closing at R4.54 per kilogramme and R3.40 per kilogramme, respectively. Meanwhile, the price of apples was down by 3% from the previous day, closing at R7.28 per kilogramme. 

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This was a data-packed week for grain and oilseed markets with releases that include production estimates updates, producer deliveries and weekly trade figures data, amongst others.

The most anticipated of the lot was the CEC’s seventh production estimate which showed a 3% month-on-month upward revision in estimated maize production to an all-time high of 16.41 million tonnes.

Overall, the market ended the week on a mixed footing, with wheat showing a notable loss of 9% from last week. The calendar for the week ahead is fairly light with only weekly grain trade and deliveries data due for release.

Apart from this, the fruit and vegetable prices were volatile throughout the week with daily stock levels underpinning the market. The SAFEX beef market remained flat throughout the week.

Click here for the South African Agricultural Commodities Weekly Wrap.

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Data from the South African Supply and Demand Estimates Committee shows that the country’s soybean supplies for the 2017/18 season could reach 1.39 million tonnes.

Highlights in today’s morning note

Soybeans:

Data from the South African Supply and Demand Estimates Committee shows that the country’s soybean supplies for the 2017/18 season could reach 1.39 million tonnes. This includes an opening stock of 84 792 tonnes for this season, commercial deliveries of 1.28 million tonnes and a small volume of imports. Overall, this is 29% higher than the previous season.

Click here to read more.

Wheat:

Although the past few weeks’ rainfall was not sufficient to replenish soil moisture across many fields in the Western Cape province, it benefited the crop as it is currently in a fair condition. Whilst in the Free State province, the crop is in fair to poor condition due to persistent dryness. There is an urgent need for follow up rains as the crop approaches the pollination stage which requires high moisture. 

Maize:

The most recent data from the South African Supply and Demand Estimates Committee shows that the country’s 2017/18 total maize supplies could reach 16.7 million tonnes. This figure includes opening stock of 1.0 million tonnes, as well as expected commercial deliveries of 15.7 million tonnes. Overall, this is 36% higher than the previous season’s supplies.

Sunflower seed:

South Africa’s sunflower seed supplies could reach 1.04 million tonnes this season (2017/18). This figure includes opening stock of 163 086 tonnes and commercial deliveries of 849 400 tonnes, amongst other variables . This essentially means that this season’s supplies will be 18% higher than the 2016/17 season.

RSA Potatoes:

The South African potatoes market gained ground on Friday’s trade session with the price up by 5% from the previous day, closing at R41.10 per pocket (10kg). These gains came on the back of relatively lower stocks of 737 760 pockets (10kg bag) at the start of the session.

SAFEX beef:

On Friday, there was not much happening in the SAFEX beef carcass market. The price remained flat at R46.00 per kilogramme due to thinly traded volumes. This means that the SAFEX beef carcass prices could differ from the physical market prices.

RSA fruit:

The fruit market closed on a mixed footing on Friday’s trade session. The prices of bananas and oranges were up by 1% and 3% from the previous day, closing at R5.11 per kilogramme and R2.78 per kilogramme, respectively. Meanwhile, the price of apples was marginally down by 1% from the previous day, closing at R7.28 per kilogramme. 

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The season is just kicking off in the warmer areas of Limpopo Province like Mooketsi and Levubu with Fuerte and Maluma, and the very first export consignments have left to reach the market in week 12. Early South African exports are primarily Fuerte. The South African harvest will get underway in all earnest by the beginning of March.

ZZ2 harvests some of the first Maluma avocados, a South African Hass-type cultivar, of the season. This allows them to provide the European market with a Hass-type avocado at a time when there is a huge window for Hass in Europe and prices are excellent. Apart from the early Mooketsi area, the company also grows avocados around Tzaneen, Politsi and Houtboschdorp (Magoebaskloof) and have about doubled their avocado acreage over the past five years to reach 1,000ha of avocados in a Hass: greenskin ratio of 60:40. Last year sizing was a challenge, due to the drought, but ZZ2 is currently peaking at sizes 12 to 16, says Clive Garrett, ZZ2 marketing manager.

South African greenskinned avocados are primarily destined for Russia, Eastern and Southern European countries, but there, too, demand for Hass is growing.

Allesbeste Boerdery, the owners and developers of the Maluma avocado, are hosting their annual Maluma Day next week and international interest in the cultivar has never been as strong, as evidenced by the sizeable foreign contingent confirmed for this year’s event. In their area of Tzaneen, avocado harvesting could start towards the end of the week.

The South African avocado industry is waiting for bilateral negotiations on pears to conclude, for work to start on access for South African avocados to China. At present the bulk of South African avocados still go to the EU, a market which is growing at a brisk clip, not least because of the work done by the World Avocado Organisation in which South Africa and Peru are driving forces.

Source: Fresh Plaza

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South Africa’s sub-soil moisture – 02 March 2018

Source: World Weather Inc.

Maize:

Last week’s showers were mainly concentrated in areas around the eastern sections of Limpopo and Mpumalanga provinces, whereas other regions remained cool and dry. With that said, the most recent report from World Weather Inc. shows that soil moisture has improved significantly across the maize belt from dryness experienced at the beginning of the year, particularly the western sections.

As a result, the maize crop is generally in good condition in most sections of the maize belt. Moreover, The expected rainfall within the next two weeks should further improve soil moisture and crop conditions.

It is worth highlighting again that the South African Weather Service forecasts a weak La Niña phase through to early autumn. This means that the maize growing regions of the country could receive good rainfall within the next two month. Overall, this reinforces the National Crop Estimates Committee’s view of a fairly good crop of 12.2 million tonnes in the 2017/18 production season.

In the region, the most recent data from Botswana’s Ministry of Agriculture shows that 2017/18 grain area plantings were at 42 800 hectares by end of February 2018, well below the area 167 562 hectares planted at the corresponding period last year.

Wheat:

Yesterday there was no new news in the domestic wheat market. The main focus today will be SAGIS weekly trade data which should give an indication of the wheat import activity.

To reiterate a point made in yesterday’s note, the upward revision of domestic wheat production to 1.5 million tonnes led a 3% downward revision of 2017/18 wheat import estimate from last month to 1.85 million tonnes. This is however still the second largest import volume on record in a dataset starting from 1936.

On the global front – The International Grains Council forecasts 2017/18 global wheat imports at 180 million tonnes, up by 1% from the previous season. The key importing regions are North Africa and Southeast Asia, with imports estimated at 29 million and 27 million tonnes, respectively. In North Africa region, the key buyers are Egypt, Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia.

Sub-Saharan Africa is also amongst the key wheat importing regions with 2017/18 wheat imports estimated at 23 million tonnes, up by 7% from the previous season. The leading buyers within this region are Nigeria, Sudan, South Africa and Kenya.

Soybeans:

South Africa’s 2017/18 soybean production season started in a better position than other crops due to rainfall in the eastern sections of the country. The crop is currently in good conditions, despite the dry and cool conditions experienced in the past few days.

Looking ahead, the weather forecasts promise higher rainfall within the next two weeks, which should further improve soil moisture and benefit the crop. This actually reinforces the National Crop Estimates Committee’s view of a possible record harvest of 1.4 million tonnes in 2017/18 production, up by 5% y/y.

While this is a welcome development, hail is always a key concern for the eastern sections of South Africa, especially when there are expectations of heavy rainfall. In the past few weeks, hail affected some areas in KwaZulu Natal and Mpumalanga provinces, but the impact on crops was minimal.

From a global demand perspective, China recently bought 198 000 tonnes of soybeans from the US. In fact, the Chinese soybean demand will remain solid throughout the season. The USDA forecasts China’s 2017/18 soybean imports at 97 million tonnes, up by 4% from the previous season. Moreover, this constitutes 65% of 2017/18 global soybean imports.

From a supply point of view, Informa Economics revised its estimate for Brazil’s 2017/18 soybean production up by 2 million tonnes from the previous month to 114 million tonnes. This is almost in line with the previous season’s harvest. Meanwhile, Argentina’s 2017/18 soybean production estimate was revision down by 7 million tonnes from last month to 44 million tonnes, owing to persistent dryness. This is roughly 20% lower than the previous season.

RSA Potatoes:

After recording losses on Friday’s trade session, the South African potatoes market was fairly quiet in yesterday’s trade session despite the large stock of 1.1 million pockets (10kg bag) at the start of the session.

However, towards the end of the session the market experienced commercial buying interest, coupled with relatively lower deliveries on the back of slow harvest activity during the weekend. This subsequently led to a 38% decline in daily stocks to 666 195 pockets (10kg bag).

RSA Fruit:

The fruit market started the week on a negative footing owing to large stocks. The prices of apples and bananas were down by 2% and 8% from the previous day, closing at R7.23 and R6.47 per kilogram, respectively. This was on the back of large stock of 216 00 tonnes of apples and 346 000 tonnes of bananas.

Moreover, the price of oranges declined by 30% from the previous day, closing at R8.31 per kilogram due to commercial selling. Looking ahead, the oranges market should soon gain ground as stocks are at lower levels of 4 000 tonnes, compared to levels of over 50 000 tonnes in December 2017.

Full report available below.

Agbiz Morning Market Viewpoint on Agri-Commodities 06 March 2018

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South Africa’s average dam levels: week ended 26 March 2018, with the same week last year in brackets

Source: Department of Water and Sanitation and Agbiz Research

Maize:

In the fields, the maize crop is in good condition and could improve further following the recent rainfall. This week started on a dry and cool note, with clear skies over most sections of the maize belt. However, more rainfall could soon return but is expected to be in the form of fairly light and scattered showers.

The weather updates show a possibility of between 16 and 30 millimetres of rainfall over the maize growing areas of the country within the next two weeks. This will further improve soil moisture and benefit the crop, particularly the western sections of the Free State and North West provinces as the late planted maize is at stages of development that require high moisture.

Today the National Crop Estimates Committee will release its 2017/18 second production estimate for maize. Last month, the Committee placed its estimate at 12.2 million tonnes, higher than market expectations (although well below the previous season’s bumper harvest of 16.8 million tonnes). As highlighted in yesterday’s note, the International Grains Council recently revised South Africa’s 2017/18 maize production upwards by 900 000 tonnes from last month to 12.7 million tonnes.

From a trade perspective, South Africa exported 29 107 tonnes of maize in the week of 23 March 2018, up by 5 percent from the previous week. About 88 percent of these exports were white maize, with 12 percent being yellow maize. The leading buyer was again Venezuela with a share of 59 percent. The rest went to other regional markets, such as Namibia, Lesotho, Swaziland and Mozambique, amongst others. Overall, this placed South Africa’s 2017/18 maize marketing year exports at 2.1 million tonnes, which equates to 88 percent of the season’s export forecast of 2.4 million tonnes.

Wheat:

South Africa’s wheat market is currently off-season, but the recent weather developments in the major winter wheat production province, Western Cape, are worth mentioning. Yesterday, the South African Weather Service indicated that between April and June 2018, parts of the south-western cape regions could receive above-normal rainfall .

Moreover, the near-term prospects are also positive. The weather charts for the next two weeks show a possibility of light showers of about 16 millimetres over the Western Cape province. While a welcome development, this will nonetheless not make a meaningful improvement on dam levels which are critically low, estimated at 18 percent in the week of 26 March 2018, down by a percentage point from the previous week and 8-percentage points from the corresponding period last year.

From a trade front, there were no imports last week, the last imports were in the week of 16 March 2018, recorded at 30 635 tonnes. All of this originated from Latvia. This placed 2017/18 marketing year’s wheat imports at 1.17 million tonnes, which equates to 63 percent of the seasonal import forecast of 1.85 million tonnes.

While a net importer of wheat, South Africa continues to export wheat to regional markets. The 23rd batch of exports this season was recorded at 1 228 tonnes, up by 85 percent from the volume seen in the week of 16 March 2018. The exports were destined to Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland. Overall, this placed South Africa’s 2017/18 wheat exports at 19 144 tonnes.

Soybeans:

South Africa’s soybean crop is in generally good condition across the country. The recent heavy rainfall over the eastern parts of South Africa did not cause crop damage. Instead, there was an improvement in soil moisture which is conducive for the late-planted crop.

The key focus today is on the National Crop Estimates Committee which will release its second production estimates for South Africa’s 2017/18 soybeans in the afternoon. Last month, the Committee placed its estimate at a new record harvest of 1.4 million tonnes. We don’t foresee major changes in this estimate as weather conditions have been fairly favourable since the last assessment.

Aside from production aspects, the most recent data from SAGIS shows that South Africa’s soybean stocks were at 330 566 tonnes in February 2018, which is almost treble the volume seen in the corresponding period last month. Also worth noting is that soybean consumption (crushed oil and cake) was at 78 073 tonnes in February 2018, double the volume utilised in February 2017.

Using an estimate of 2.2 million tonnes of South Africa’s soybean crushing capacity, which equates to 183 333 tonnes per month, the country utilised 43% of its monthly soybean processing capacity in February 2018, which is also 2 percentage points lower than the previous month but double the capacity utilisation in February 2017.

Sunflower seed:

After good rainfall in the past few days, the start of this week provided a breather, characterised by dry and cool weather conditions over sunflower seed growing areas. The crop is in good shape and could remain in a fair condition throughout the season as light showers are expected over the next two weeks.

Last month, the National Crop Estimates Committee placed South Africa’s 2017/18 sunflower seed production at 731 505 tonnes, down by 16 percent from the 2016/17 production season due to a decline in area planted. The Committee will release an update in the afternoon today. This month’s estimate could remain fairly unchanged from last month, and if there are any adjustments, it will possibly be upwards.

Apart from the production dynamics, South Africa’s sunflower seed consumption (crushed oil and cake) increased by 3 percent month-on-month to 81 347 tonnes in February 2018. Moreover, this is 17 percent higher than the volume utilised in the corresponding period last year.

RSA Fruit:

Yesterday the fruit market saw widespread losses owing commercial selling and large stocks. The prices for apples and bananas were down by 17 percent and 8 percent from the previous day, closing at R6.44 and R6.84 per kilogram, respectively.

In addition, the price of oranges was down by 26 percent from the previous day due to commercial selling and settled at R3.51 per kilogram. However, these losses could soon be reversed due to lower stocks of 32 000 tonnes, compared to levels of 73 000 the previous day.

Full report by Wandile Sihlobo available below.

Agbiz Morning Market Viewpoint on Agri-Commodities 28 March 2018

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Various tactics – both old and new – are being tested to try and control the Fall armyworm in Africa. These include the use of inter-cropping technology, natural enemies, early warning systems and use of biopesticides. 

To combat the voracious pest, and prevent the huge losses, policymakers, extension agencies and growers could learn from the experiences of farmers in the Americas, and adapt the same to suit the smallholder African production system. This knowledge must be shared with farmers and agricultural officers. And any policy developed must involve local and international stakeholders before being rolled out. 

Stopping the outbreak

The pest, an alien from the Americas, was first reported in Africa in 2016. Starting in the São Tomé and Príncipe islands and Nigeria, in just two years it spread to over 38 African countries. 

The speed with which they spread could be due to a few factors. Firstly, female armyworms produce a huge number of eggs (between 50 – 200 eggs per batch), and can have up to 10 batches within her lifespan. Secondly, the moths are carried by the wind across vast distances. Some have been known to travel up to 1,000km. Thirdly, numbers aren’t being reduced by their natural enemies which means they can multiply uninhibited. 

All these factors are crucial to keep in mind when managing an outbreak. 

Pesticides:  In sub-Saharan Africa, most food is produced by smallholder farmers. When they try to control an outbreak they will often use pesticides as these are believed to instantly suppress the pest. The use of chemical pesticides seems to be the most common practice that is currently heavily supported by the government. But pesticides can be harmful, particularly to the environment as they affect non-targeted organisms, like bees. 

Though often overlooked, there are other, more natural approaches which have proven effective. 

Push-pull and other intercropping technology: In this approach crops are grown alongside one another. Some act as a deterrent to insect pests and weeds. The system has reduced pest infestation drastically. This technology has the additional benefit of providing high-quality fodder for livestock and improving yields and soil fertility. For example, when a “trap” crop (such as Napier grass) is planted around maize rows, it attracts stemborer moths to lay eggs on it. But, because the grass isn’t nutritious, very few stem borer larvae will survive. 

In the case of fall armyworm, this has proven effective when maize is inter-cropped with drought-tolerant Greenleaf desmodium and planting Brachiaria as a border crop around this intercrop. When compared to mono-crop areas, data collected from over 250 farmers, who adopted this technology in drier areas of Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania, showed a reduction of 82.7% in the average number of larvae per plant and 86.7% in plant damage per plot. Intercropping maize with edible legumes can also result in up to 40% reduction in armyworm incidence and damage.

On the basis of these multiple benefits, the International Centre of Insect Physiology and Ecology and partners are rolling out the approach in sub-Saharan Africa.

Early warning, surveillance and monitoring systems:  Surveillance and monitoring are crucial to managing an outbreak. They ensure that identification happens very early, before a full outbreak, and allows for proper response management.  Pheromone traps, which use the smell of a female armyworm to attract a male, can be a very useful surveillance tool. Judging by the number of moths captured, an infestation can be quickly recognised. These types of surveillance systems are already being demonstrated within some communities. The traps can also be used for mass trappings to reduce the numbers.

Biocontrol: Several ecologically sustainable biocontrol solutions are available to farmers. The release of natural enemies is one of them. Parasitic wasps for example can provide (up to 70%) control for Fall armyworm by laying their eggs on or inside the Fall armyworm eggs or larvae.  Scientists at International Centre of Insect Physiology and Ecology have also identified locally available natural enemies, such as the wasp Cotesia icipe, which has proven effective against the armyworm larvae in the lab.

If these natural enemies are reared in bulk, they can be released in huge numbers in affected fields and conserved. As they multiply in the fields, they can control the pest as they feed on the pest’s larvae. 

Biopesticides: These are a fungal, viral or bacteria based product which kill the Fall army worm. Examples include the fungi-like Metarhizium anisopliae or bacteria-based Bacillus thuringiensis that have proven effective against Fall armyworm and have been used to control it in the US and Brazil. 

There are also botanical pesticides which act as both deterrent and toxins. These can prevent the caterpillar from feeding on the crop but also interfere with its ability to grow.

Efforts to control Fall armyworm by African governments could draw on the lessons of all these interventions which have been used in the Americas but also trialled in Africa. Obviously, local adaptations will need to be made. But the Fall armyworm will remain in Africa for a long time unless concerted action is taken, drawing on the various methods from America and those available in Africa.

Source: Bizcommunity

This article was written by Saliou Niassy and Sevgan Subramanian and was first published on The Conversation. Read the original article here.

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