Maize:

Interesting to note is that the International Grains Council (IGC) is even more optimistic on South Africa’s maize production, estimating the overall crop at 16.4 million tonnes, compared to 7.8 million tonnes in the previous season. The harvest process is in full swing with reports of exceptional yields across the country. The process could gain momentum within the next two weeks due to expected warm weather conditions in the maize belt.

Wheat:

The South African Weather Service noted that there is a possibility of wetter conditions in the south western parts of the country between August and October 2017. This will be a welcome relief after weeks of dryness in the Western Cape province during the first half of their traditional rainy season.

Soybeans:

As indicated in our note yesterday, South Africa’s soybean supplies for 2017/18 season could reach 1.41 million tonnes. This includes an opening stock of 84 792 tonnes, as well as commercial deliveries of 1.31 million tonnes and a small volume of imports. This is 30% higher than the previous season.

Click here to read more.

Sunflower seed:

Although South Africa generally expects a good sunflower seed harvest this season, the areas that planted late in a season received lower yields of between 0.6 and 0.7 tonnes per hectare. The country’s sunflower seed production estimate is 821 970 tonnes, up 9% from the previous season.

RSA Potatoes:

Yesterday the South African potatoes market managed to claw back some of its recent losses with support coming from lower stock levels. The price was up by 0.49% from the previous day, closing at R28.45 per 10kg bag.

RSA fruit:

The fruit market started the week on a mixed footing. The prices of apples and bananas were up by 9.37% and 0.15% from the previous day, closing at R7.59 per kilogramme and R6.86 per kilogramme, respectively. The apples stocks were down by 9% from the previous day easing at 215 990 tonnes. At the same time, the bananas daily stocks fell by 23% to 157 050 tonnes. Meanwhile, the price of oranges fell by 16% from the previous day, closing at R2.79 per kilogramme. 

The post IGC more optimistic on South Africa’s maize production. appeared first on Agri Limpopo.

Agri Limpopo is opgewonde oor die nuwe aanslag wat President Cyril Ramaphosa op die strukturele ekonomiese probleme soos armoede, werkloosheid en ‘n lae investeringsaptyt in Suid Afrika het, en is daartoe verbind om met sy strewe tot ekonomiese groei saam te werk.

Dit lyk en klink allerweë of hy bereid is om die sweep te klap teen korrupsie, nepotisme en wanadministrasie, wat Limpopo oor die afgelope dekade gekniehalter het.

Vanwee die praktyk van kaderoptplooiïng lê die wortels van hierdie probleme diep in die samestelling van bykans elke departement, en dit sal meer as net die regte uitsprake kos om daarvan ontslae te raak.

Dit is steeds ‘n raaisel hoe die ANC hoop om investering, werkskepping, ekonomiese groei en verhoogde produksie in die landbousektor te stimuleer met ‘n beleid van onteiening sonder vergoeding! Kapitaal is so skugter soos ‘n koedoe, en as dit skrik, hardloop dit weg. Hierdie beleid van die ANC skep juis die onsekerheid wat investering en groei inhibeer.

Hoewel dit deur ‘n resolusie en meerderheidstem die amptelike beleid van die ANC geword het, is die Nasionale Ontwikkelingsplan op dieselfde wyse in 2012 in Mangaung eenparig as ANC beleid aanvaar. Hierdie plan is nie met onteiening sonder vergoeding versoenbaar nie, en die grondhervormingsplan in Hoofstuk 6 daarvan is sedert 2012 nooit met implementeringsprogramme of ‘n begroting ondersteun nie.

President Ramaphosa was destyds die voorsitter van die Nasionale Beplanningskommissie wat die plan geformuleer het, en is bewus van talle pogings wat deur privaatsektorbelanghebbendes soos Agri Limpopo, landboubesighede, Landbank, ander banke en buitelandse investeerders geloods is om die Hoofstuk 6-plan te laat werk.

Die vennootskapgebasseerde grondhervormingsmodel van die NOP is steeds die enigste plan wat wye steun onder politieke partye en die privaatsektor geniet, en tot dusver met ‘n 100% suksessyfer geïmplementeer is. Dit maak onteiening sonder vergoeding oorbodig en sinneloos.

Agri Limpopo doen weereens ‘n beroep op President Ramaphosa om landbouleiers oor ‘n wye spektrum te betrek by gesprekke oor die beste manier om die landbousektor te ontwikkel in SA.

Navrae:
Dr Theo de Jager – Agri Limpopo Landbou-ontwikkelingskomitee 082 332 2110
Willem van Jaarsveld HUB agri Limpopo 082 451 7913

The post Agri Limpopo Mediaverklaring – SONA 2018 appeared first on Agri Limpopo.

The season is just kicking off in the warmer areas of Limpopo Province like Mooketsi and Levubu with Fuerte and Maluma, and the very first export consignments have left to reach the market in week 12. Early South African exports are primarily Fuerte. The South African harvest will get underway in all earnest by the beginning of March.

ZZ2 harvests some of the first Maluma avocados, a South African Hass-type cultivar, of the season. This allows them to provide the European market with a Hass-type avocado at a time when there is a huge window for Hass in Europe and prices are excellent. Apart from the early Mooketsi area, the company also grows avocados around Tzaneen, Politsi and Houtboschdorp (Magoebaskloof) and have about doubled their avocado acreage over the past five years to reach 1,000ha of avocados in a Hass: greenskin ratio of 60:40. Last year sizing was a challenge, due to the drought, but ZZ2 is currently peaking at sizes 12 to 16, says Clive Garrett, ZZ2 marketing manager.

South African greenskinned avocados are primarily destined for Russia, Eastern and Southern European countries, but there, too, demand for Hass is growing.

Allesbeste Boerdery, the owners and developers of the Maluma avocado, are hosting their annual Maluma Day next week and international interest in the cultivar has never been as strong, as evidenced by the sizeable foreign contingent confirmed for this year’s event. In their area of Tzaneen, avocado harvesting could start towards the end of the week.

The South African avocado industry is waiting for bilateral negotiations on pears to conclude, for work to start on access for South African avocados to China. At present the bulk of South African avocados still go to the EU, a market which is growing at a brisk clip, not least because of the work done by the World Avocado Organisation in which South Africa and Peru are driving forces.

Source: Fresh Plaza

The post The South African avocado season starts and harvests are ready appeared first on Agri Limpopo.

Dr Marinda Visser, manager of Grain SA’s Research and Policy Centre, said reports had been received of the pest on sunflower but these had not yet been confirmed in a laboratory.

She said that Grain SA had appointed the company Crop Watch to conduct detection and surveillance of FAW.

“It’s better to receive the information earlier rather than later,” she said, adding that the pest was under control in South Africa and the country was “not in crisis mode”.

Manager of early warning systems at the Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, Jan-Hendrik Venter, confirmed that the department had received information from a reputable organisation of a possible detection of FAW on sunflower.

“But we haven’t received an official report yet,” he said.

He said the FAW steering committee met monthly and had not felt the need to meet more frequently.

“There are really very few cases this year. We know that it’s all over in Limpopo but this was something we predicted because it doesn’t get cold enough to kill it off.”

He said that the committee expected that from now on, FAW would always be present in areas such as Limpopo, KwaZulu-Natal and Mpumalanga.

“So we mustn’t get a fright every time we hear that FAW has been found in Limpopo,” he said.

Venter said there had been very few sightings in the Free State and North West to date, but the pest had been seen in Gauteng and the Eastern Cape.

He said there could be a number of reasons for the lower number of cases in these two provinces. These could include the longer-lasting drought, a smaller maize crop, the fact that chemicals had been registered, and proactive management by farmers.

“They know about the worm. They scout and spray earlier,” he said.

Venter said that permits were now available for the use of pheromone traps for early detection at farm level.

He added that in South Africa, the pest seemed to prefer to lay its eggs on maize or sorghum and not sunflower.

He urged farmers continue scouting, and report any suspected sightings to him on 012 319 6384 or by e-mail at JanHendrikV@daff.gov.za.

Source: Farmer’s Weekly

The post FAW on sunflowers: Farmers should stay vigilant, but not panic appeared first on Agri Limpopo.

South Africa’s sub-soil moisture – 02 March 2018

Source: World Weather Inc.

Maize:

Last week’s showers were mainly concentrated in areas around the eastern sections of Limpopo and Mpumalanga provinces, whereas other regions remained cool and dry. With that said, the most recent report from World Weather Inc. shows that soil moisture has improved significantly across the maize belt from dryness experienced at the beginning of the year, particularly the western sections.

As a result, the maize crop is generally in good condition in most sections of the maize belt. Moreover, The expected rainfall within the next two weeks should further improve soil moisture and crop conditions.

It is worth highlighting again that the South African Weather Service forecasts a weak La Niña phase through to early autumn. This means that the maize growing regions of the country could receive good rainfall within the next two month. Overall, this reinforces the National Crop Estimates Committee’s view of a fairly good crop of 12.2 million tonnes in the 2017/18 production season.

In the region, the most recent data from Botswana’s Ministry of Agriculture shows that 2017/18 grain area plantings were at 42 800 hectares by end of February 2018, well below the area 167 562 hectares planted at the corresponding period last year.

Wheat:

Yesterday there was no new news in the domestic wheat market. The main focus today will be SAGIS weekly trade data which should give an indication of the wheat import activity.

To reiterate a point made in yesterday’s note, the upward revision of domestic wheat production to 1.5 million tonnes led a 3% downward revision of 2017/18 wheat import estimate from last month to 1.85 million tonnes. This is however still the second largest import volume on record in a dataset starting from 1936.

On the global front – The International Grains Council forecasts 2017/18 global wheat imports at 180 million tonnes, up by 1% from the previous season. The key importing regions are North Africa and Southeast Asia, with imports estimated at 29 million and 27 million tonnes, respectively. In North Africa region, the key buyers are Egypt, Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia.

Sub-Saharan Africa is also amongst the key wheat importing regions with 2017/18 wheat imports estimated at 23 million tonnes, up by 7% from the previous season. The leading buyers within this region are Nigeria, Sudan, South Africa and Kenya.

Soybeans:

South Africa’s 2017/18 soybean production season started in a better position than other crops due to rainfall in the eastern sections of the country. The crop is currently in good conditions, despite the dry and cool conditions experienced in the past few days.

Looking ahead, the weather forecasts promise higher rainfall within the next two weeks, which should further improve soil moisture and benefit the crop. This actually reinforces the National Crop Estimates Committee’s view of a possible record harvest of 1.4 million tonnes in 2017/18 production, up by 5% y/y.

While this is a welcome development, hail is always a key concern for the eastern sections of South Africa, especially when there are expectations of heavy rainfall. In the past few weeks, hail affected some areas in KwaZulu Natal and Mpumalanga provinces, but the impact on crops was minimal.

From a global demand perspective, China recently bought 198 000 tonnes of soybeans from the US. In fact, the Chinese soybean demand will remain solid throughout the season. The USDA forecasts China’s 2017/18 soybean imports at 97 million tonnes, up by 4% from the previous season. Moreover, this constitutes 65% of 2017/18 global soybean imports.

From a supply point of view, Informa Economics revised its estimate for Brazil’s 2017/18 soybean production up by 2 million tonnes from the previous month to 114 million tonnes. This is almost in line with the previous season’s harvest. Meanwhile, Argentina’s 2017/18 soybean production estimate was revision down by 7 million tonnes from last month to 44 million tonnes, owing to persistent dryness. This is roughly 20% lower than the previous season.

RSA Potatoes:

After recording losses on Friday’s trade session, the South African potatoes market was fairly quiet in yesterday’s trade session despite the large stock of 1.1 million pockets (10kg bag) at the start of the session.

However, towards the end of the session the market experienced commercial buying interest, coupled with relatively lower deliveries on the back of slow harvest activity during the weekend. This subsequently led to a 38% decline in daily stocks to 666 195 pockets (10kg bag).

RSA Fruit:

The fruit market started the week on a negative footing owing to large stocks. The prices of apples and bananas were down by 2% and 8% from the previous day, closing at R7.23 and R6.47 per kilogram, respectively. This was on the back of large stock of 216 00 tonnes of apples and 346 000 tonnes of bananas.

Moreover, the price of oranges declined by 30% from the previous day, closing at R8.31 per kilogram due to commercial selling. Looking ahead, the oranges market should soon gain ground as stocks are at lower levels of 4 000 tonnes, compared to levels of over 50 000 tonnes in December 2017.

Full report available below.

Agbiz Morning Market Viewpoint on Agri-Commodities 06 March 2018

The post Soil moisture has improved significantly across the maize belt appeared first on Agri Limpopo.

Maize:

The weather conditions could remain favourable throughout the production season. The medium-term forecasts promise above average rainfall within the next two months across the maize belt, which should further improve soil moisture and benefit the crop.

From the data front, today the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) will release its monthly update of the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. Last month, the agency placed South Africa’s 2017/18 maize production estimate at 12.5 million tonnes (commercial and non-commercial maize production.), down from last season’s record harvest of 17.5 million tonnes.

While the focus is on the new production season, some farmers continue to deliver old season maize to commercial silos. The total maize deliveries were reported at 4 241 tonnes in the week ending 02 March 2018, well below the previous week’s deliveries of 24 593 tonnes. About 61% of this was white maize, with 39% being yellow maize. Overall, South Africa’s 2017/18 marketing year’s total maize deliveries for “week 1 to 44” currently stand at 15.3 million tonnes. Of this total, 60% is white maize with 40% being yellow maize.

Wheat:

The volumes of wheat recently delivered to commercial silos declined significantly from levels seen the previous weeks. This mirrors the reduction in activity in the farms after the completion of the harvest process .

About 2 848 tonnes of wheat were delivered to commercial silos in the week ending 02 March 2018. This is four-fold lower than the volume delivered the previous week, and well below the volumes delivered in the previous months when the harvest process was at its peak. Overall, this placed South Africa’s winter wheat producer deliveries for “week 1 to 22” of the 2017/18 marketing year at 1.44 million tonnes.

On the global front – Making headlines yesterday was the intergovernmental contract between Iran and Russia, which could potentially lead to about 1.5 million tonnes of wheat exports to Iran in the coming years. This will be an important market for Russia as the country continues to see a solid increase in domestic wheat production.

In its February report, the USDA placed Russia’s 2017/18 wheat production at 85 million tonnes, up by 17% from the previous season owing to an increase in area planted, as well as expected higher yields. This is a notable contribution to global supplies, making up a share of 11%.

Soybeans:

The expected rainfall has not yet materialised in most soybean growing areas of the country. The only areas that received light showers on Tuesday evening were Bethlehem, Fouriesburg, Heilbron, Harrismith, Lindley, Ventersburg, Senekal, Morgenzon and Vereeniging.

Nevertheless, this is not much of a concern as soybean growing areas of South Africa still have a fair amount of soil moisture from rainfall received in the past few weeks. Moreover, the forecast rainfall within the next two weeks is in line with the South African Weather Service’s expectations of above normal rainfall within the next two months across the summer crop growing areas of the country.

In global markets – The global soybean demand remains solid, underpinned by strong demand from China. The USDA recently reported a sale of 120 000 tonnes of US soybean to China. As highlighted in our previous note, China National Grain and Oils Information Centre forecasts the country 2017/18 soybean imports at 96 million tonnes, slightly below the USDA’s estimate of 97 million tonnes.

RSA Potatoes:

The potatoes market lost ground in yesterday’s trade session owing to a large stock of 739 972 tonnes at the start of the session. The price was down by 6% from the previous day, closing at R34.95 per pocket (10kg).

In the session, the market saw an uptick in deliveries owing to ongoing harvest activity in most parts of the country. This led to a 12% increase in daily stocks to 831 606 pockets (10kg bag).

RSA fruit:

The fruit market recorded widespread losses in yesterday’s trade session. The prices of apples and bananas were down by 1% and 3% from the previous day, closing at R8.21 and R7.03 per kilogram. These losses were mainly due to large stocks of 176 000 tonnes of apples and 210 000 tonnes of bananas.

The price of oranges declined by 4% from the previous day and settled at R4.63 per kilogram. This was also pressured by a recovery in stocks to 61 000 tonnes, from levels of below 30 000 tonnes in the past few days.

Full report attached below

Agbiz Morning Market Viewpoint on Agri-Commodities 08 March 2018

The post Weather could remain favourable through maize production season appeared first on Agri Limpopo.

The notable gains were on soybeans and white maize with spot prices each up by 3%, respectively, compared to last week. Sunflower seed and yellow maize also had a good run this week with spot prices each respectively up by 2% from last week.

On the weather front, conditions remain favourable for the new season crop, following the South African Weather Service’s monthly update which noted a possibility of above-normal rainfall in summer crop areas between this month and May 2018.

The week ahead could present more of the same as the data calendar is quite light with only weekly grain trade and deliveries data due for release

Apart from grains and oilseeds, the fruit and vegetable prices were volatile this week with large daily stock levels underpinning the market. The SAFEX beef carcass market experienced another quiet week with prices unchanged from levels seen last week.

Click below for the full report by Wandile Sihlobo

South African Agricultural Commodities Weekly Wrap 09 March 2018

The post South African Agricultural Commodities Weekly Wrap: 09 March 2018 appeared first on Agri Limpopo.

Maize:

Over the weekend, the Free State province received light and scattered showers, which were however not sufficient to make a meaningful improvement in soil moisture. With that said, the maize crop is in fairly good condition across the country.

The areas that are somewhat moisture-stressed following dryness in the past few days could soon see some relief, as the weather forecasts for the next two weeks show a possibility of rainfall of between 20 and 60 millimetres.

As indicated in yesterday’s note, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts South Africa’s 2017/18 maize production at 13.0 million tonnes (down by 26 percent from last year) .

Worth noting, but of lesser significance to the global market, is a possible uptick in Mali’s maize harvest. The official estimate from the country’s Ministry of Agriculture points to a 15 percent year on year uptick in 2018/19 maize production to 3.9 million tonnes. This improvement is largely on the back of an increase in area planted.

Wheat:

South Africa’s wheat market is currently off-season, and therefore, most activity is in import trading. The past season’s drought resulted in a lower harvest in the Western Cape province, which subsequently led to a 20 percent year-on-year decline in 2017 national production to 1.5 million tonnes.

The Western Cape is a winter rainfall area. Despite the urgent need for rain, there a slim chance of sufficient showers in that province within the next couple of weeks. The winter wheat growing areas will, nonetheless, need moisture within the next two months or so ahead of the new planting season. At this point, it is unclear what the weather conditions will look like in the upcoming season.

Apart from the domestic development, the global market remains well supplied after the USDA supply and demand estimates reports showed a slight upward revision in 2017/18 global wheat production estimate to 759 million tonnes. This is three percent higher than the previous season. Russia and India were the leading contributors to this increase in production.

From a demand front, the 2017/18 global wheat imports are estimated at 182 million tonnes, slightly higher than the previous month’s estimate of 180 million tonnes and seven percent higher than the previous season. Southeast Asia, Middle East and North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa regions are set to be amongst the key importers.

Sunflower seed:

The expected rainfall this past weekend did not materialise in most sunflower seed growing areas. It is only a few areas around Bloemfontein, De Brug, Viljoenskroon and Losdoorns that received light showers of between 5 and 13 millimetres.

With that said, soil moisture is generally in fair condition following the recent rainfall. The crop that is slightly moisture-stressed following dryness in the past few days should soon recover as weather conditions promise rainfall within the next two weeks.

With the late planted sunflower seed crop still at early stages of development in regions around Delareyville, Sannieshof and Lichtenburg in the North West province, the expectation of a prolonged rainfall pattern this season should provide sufficient moisture for crop development.

RSA Potatoes:

The potatoes market started the week on negative footing owing to a large stock of 934 899 tonnes at the start of the session. The price was down by four percent from the previous day, closing at R33.02 per pocket (10kg).

However, towards the end of the session, the market experienced strong commercial buying interest, coupled with relatively lower deliveries on the back of slow harvest activity during the weekend. This subsequently led to a 31 percent decline in daily stocks to 644 269 pockets (10kg bag).

RSA fruit:

The fruit market also started the week on a negative footing with prices under pressure due to an uptick in daily stock. The price of apples and bananas were down by six percent and a percentage point from the previous day, closing at R7.27 and R7.19 per kilogram, respectively. These losses were underpinned by a large stock of 220 000 tonnes of apples and 301 000 tonnes of bananas.

Moreover, the price of oranges fell by two percent from the previous day and settled at R7.69 per kilogram. This will, however, be short-lived because of fairly lower stock of 26 000 tonnes, compared to levels of over 70 000 tonnes in the past few days.

Click below for the full report.

Agbiz Morning Market Viewpoint on Agri-Commodities 13 March 2018

The post Maize crop in fairly good condition across country appeared first on Agri Limpopo.

Maize:

A large part of the South African maize belt started this week with dry and cool weather conditions, with light and scattered showers only in a couple of regions within Mpumalanga province. The areas that are somewhat moisture-stressed following dryness in the past few days could soon see some relief, as the weather forecasts for the next two weeks show a possibility of rainfall of over 30 millimetres.

Last week’s maize exports were again disappointing. South Africa exported 14 010 tonnes, down by 5 percent from the volume exported in the week of 02 March 2018. About 68 percent of these exports were white maize, with 32 percent being yellow maize. This placed South Africa’s 2017/18 maize marketing year exports at 2.0 million tonnes, which equates to 83 percent of the season’s export forecast of 2.4 million tonnes.

Within the region, the 2017/18 maize production season started on a bad footing in Zimbabwe with limited soil moisture in the latter part of December 2017 into the start of 2018. But, at the beginning of last month, the maize producing regions received good showers which improved soil moisture and benefited the crop.

The reports we are getting from analysts on the ground in the country point to a possibility of average yields in most areas, which is well below the 2016/17 production season’s bumper harvest of 2.2 million tonnes. We will closely monitor the developments in the coming weeks as this could have implications on regional maize demand. In the case of South Africa, these developments will have implication on export activity for the 2018/19 marketing year which starts in May 2018.

Wheat:

As highlighted in yesterday’s note, South Africa’s wheat market is currently off-season, and therefore, most activity is in import trading. However, the recent developments in the major wheat production province, Western Cape, are worth mentioning. The weather charts for the next two weeks show a possibility of light showers of between 16 and 20 millimetres across the coastal areas of the province.

While a welcome development, this will nonetheless not make a meaningful improvement on dam levels which are critically low, estimated at 20 percent in the week of 05 March 2018, down by 10 percentage points from the corresponding period last year.

There are no new developments on the wheat import tariff. The newly calculated trigger rate is R394.84 per tonne, down by 45 percent from the current active level. This new rate will only be applicable after its publication on the government gazette. The timeframe for this process is unclear, but previous adjustments took more than three weeks.

With that said, the import activity has slowed. South Africa imported 55 958 tonnes in the week ending 09 March 2018, down by 46 percent from the previous week. About 51 percent came from Romania, 31 percent from Latvia and 18 percent from Argentina. This placed 2017/18 marketing year’s wheat imports at 1.14 tonnes, which equates to 62 percent of the seasonal import forecast of 1.85 million tonnes.

Soybeans:

The soybean crop is generally in good condition with expectations of above-average yields in some areas. This supports the National Crop Estimates Committee’s view of a new record level of 1.4 million tonnes this season, up by 5 percent from the 2016/17 production season.

Although soil moisture is in good condition, the crop could still benefit from additional rainfall, especially the late planted areas. The expected showers have not yet materialised in most areas. It is only areas around Graskop, Middelburg, Morgenzon, Witbank and Wonderfontein that received light showers on Monday night.

The next two weeks, however, promise the possibility of rainfall of over 50 millimetres in soybean growing regions of the country . This should further improve soil moisture and benefit the crop.

From a demand front, the 2017/18 soybean imports are estimated at 151 million tonnes, up by 5 percent from the previous season. China, the EU, Japan and Mexico are set to be the key buys. China alone accounts for two-thirds of global soybean imports. This is driven by growing demand from the animal feed industry.

Sunflower seed:

The weather remains a primary focus in the sunflower seed market as the crop is still at its early stages of development. The expected rainfall has not yet materialised in most areas of the country. However, the crop that is slightly moisture-stressed following dryness in the past few days should soon recover as weather conditions promise rainfall within the next two weeks.

As highlighted in our previous notes, the medium-term weather forecast promises a possibility of above normal rainfall in summer crop growing areas of South Africa between this month and May 2018. This should provide sufficient moisture for crop development throughout the season.

In the global market – The 2017/18 sunflower seed harvest process is not yet complete in Russia. According to SUNSEEDMAN, about 7 percent of the area planting is yet to be harvested. The USDA placed Russia’s 2017/18 sunflower seed production at 10.4 million tonnes, down by 5 percent from the previous day.

In Argentina, the sunflower seed harvest process is underway but could slow within the next few days due to expected rainfall. On 13 March 2018, about 45% of this season’s crop had already been harvested. The USDA forecasts the country’s 2017/18 sunflower seed crop at 3.6 million tonnes, up by 6 percent year-on-year.

RSA Potatoes:

The potatoes market had a good run in yesterday’s trade session underpinned by lower stocks of 644 269 pockets (10kg bag) at the start of the session. The price was up by 7 percent from the previous day, closing at R35.51 per pocket (10kg).

However, in yesterday’s trading session, the market saw an uptick in deliveries as harvest activity picked up after a quiet period in the weekend. This led to a 21 percent increase in daily stocks to 780 197 pockets (10kg bag).

RSA fruit:

The fruit market ended yesterday’s session on a mixed footing. The apples and bananas market managed to claw back the recent losses with the prices up by 11 percent and 12 percent from the previous day, closing at R8.12 and R8.06 per kilogram, respectively. These gains followed a respective decline in daily stocks of apples and bananas to 183 000 tonnes and 237 000 tonnes.

Meanwhile, the price of oranges experienced extended losses of 29 percent from the previous day and settled at R5.47 per kilogram. We maintain that this will be short-lived because of fairly lower stock of 55 000 tonnes, compared to levels of over 70 000 tonnes in the past few days.

Click below for the full report by Wandile Sihlobo:

Agbiz Morning Market Viewpoint on Agri-Commodities 14 March 2018

The post Soybean crop expectations of above-average yields in some areas appeared first on Agri Limpopo.

The weather remains a key focus in the domestic maize market as the crop is still at its growing stages. The soil moisture has generally improved across the maize belt following rainfall in the past few weeks. But, follow up rainfall is needed given that the crop has been moisture-stressed in the western parts of the country following dryness in the past few days.

Fortunately, the near term weather forecasts show signs of good rainfall across the maize belt within the next two weeks. If this materialises, the maize crop will remain in good shape, which increases a chance of good yields this season .

While the focus is on the new production season, some farmers continue to deliver old season maize to commercial silos. The total maize deliveries were reported at 13 287 tonnes in the week ending 09 March 2018, well above the previous week’s deliveries of 13 287 tonnes. About 60 percent of this was yellow maize, with 40 percent being white maize. Overall, South Africa’s 2017/18 marketing year’s total maize deliveries for “week 1 to 45” currently stand at 15.39 million tonnes. Of this total, 59 percent is white maize with 41 percent being yellow maize.

Wheat:

Although the winter wheat growing season will only start in the next two months or so, the recent developments on the Western Cape weather front are worth highlighting. The weather charts currently show a possibility of light rainfall within the next two weeks across the coastal areas of the province.

This is a welcome development following weeks of dryness, but will not make a meaningful improvement on dam levels which are critically low, estimated at 20 percent in the week of 12 March 2018, unchanged from the previous week, but down by 9 percentage points from the corresponding period last year.

The volumes of wheat recently delivered to commercial silos declined significantly from levels seen the previous weeks. This mirrors the reduction in activity in the farms after the completion of the harvest process .

About 3 519 tonnes of wheat were delivered to commercial silos in the week ending 09 March 2018. This is up by 24 percent from the volume delivered the previous week, but well below the volumes delivered in the previous months when the harvest process was at its peak. Overall, this placed South Africa’s winter wheat producer deliveries for “week 1 to 23” of the 2017/18 marketing year at 1.46 million tonnes.

Soybeans:

This week the soybean growing areas were dry and cool so far, with light showers on Tuesday night only which were concentrated in areas around Lydenburg, Middelburg, Morgenzon, Witbank and Wonderfontein. With that said, this is not a greater concern as there is still a fair amount of soil moisture.

Moreover, the next two weeks promise the possibility of good rainfall which should further improve soil moisture. As noted in yesterday’s note, these weather developments support the Crop Estimates Committee’s view of a new record level of 1.4 million tonnes this season, up by 5 percent from the 2016/17 production season.

In global markets – There is speculation in the market that China’s soybean demand could partially shift from the US to South America owing to the recent political developments regarding US trade policy. China is the world’s leading importer of soybeans with a share of 64% in 2017/18 global soybean imports of 151 million tonnes.

In the past five years, the US has been one of the key suppliers of soybeans to China accounting for nearly 40% share of that market, according to data from Trade Map. Brazil and Argentina were amongst the key suppliers, hence the talks in the market point to a possible increase in South America’s share at the expense of the US in the Chinese soybean market over the coming years.

Sunflower seed:

The expected rainfall has not yet materialised in most areas of the country. Although not an immediate concern, it is worth noting that some crops in the western parts of the North West and Free State provinces are slightly moisture-stressed and urgently need rainfall.

There is hope however that the expected rainfall within the next eight days could offer a bit of relief. Fortunately, the medium-term forecasts promise a possibility of above normal rainfall in summer crop growing areas of South Africa between this month and May 2018 which should provide sufficient moisture for crop development throughout the season .

In the global market – The warm weather conditions in Argentina which have been disrupting the soybean crops have had a slightly positive impact on sunflowers, not by increasing yields but boosting the harvest process. Data from SUNSEEDMAN shows that on 14 March 2018, about 50% of this season’s Argentinian sunflower seed crop had already been harvested. The USDA forecasts the country’s 2017/18 sunflower seed crop at 3.6 million tonnes, up by 6 percent year-on-year.

RSA Potatoes:

After experiencing a good run at the start of the week, the potatoes market pulled back in yesterday’s trade session and settled in negative territory due to a large stock of 780 197 pockets (10kg bag) at the start of the session. The price was up by 9 percent from the previous day, closing at R32.40 per pocket (10kg).

In yesterday’s trading session, the market saw an uptick in deliveries on the back of ongoing harvest activity. This led to a 24 percent increase in daily stocks to 970 516 pockets (10kg bag).

RSA fruit:

The fruit market has been quite wobbly this week. The gains that were seen at the start of the week were again shaved off in yesterday’s session due to an uptick in daily stock levels. The prices of apples and bananas were down by down by 15 percent and 6 percent from the previous day, closing at R6.91 and R7.58 per kilogram, respectively.

Surprisingly, the price of oranges experienced extended losses of 17 percent from the previous day and settled at R4.54 per kilogram. We maintain that this will be short-lived because of fairly lower stock of 64 000 tonnes, compared to levels of over 70 000 tonnes in the past few days.

Full report by Wandile Sihlobo available below.

Agbiz Morning Market Viewpoint on Agri-Commodities 15 March 2018

The post Signs of good rainfall across maize belt within next two weeks appeared first on Agri Limpopo.