RSA Potatoes:

The South African potatoes market saw additional gains in yesterday’s trade session with the price up by 5% from the previous day, closing at R29.82 per 10kg bag. These gains were on the back of lower stocks of 826 523 bags (10kg bags) at the start of the session.

Maize:

South African maize exports fell by 43% in the week ending 28 July 2017 from the previous one and eased at 87 577 tonnes. This was mainly due to a decline in activity in the Kenyan market. About 60% of these exports were yellow maize, with 40% being white maize.

Wheat:

The southern parts of the Western Cape province could receive light showers this week, whereas other parts of the province could remain dry and cool. However, the week ending 17 August 2017 could bring rainfall of between 16 and 30 millimetres across the province which will possibly improve crop conditions and soil moisture.

Click here to read more.

Soybeans:

The harvest process is complete with exceptional yields which support the National Crop Estimate Committee’s view of a record crop of 1.34 million tonnes – an 81% annual increase.

RSA fruit:

The prices of apples and bananas retracted from the previous day’s highs due to large stocks, closing at R6.92 per kilogramme and R5.79 per kilogramme, respectively. The apples stocks were up by 27% from the previous day easing at 274 368 tonnes. At the same time, the bananas daily stocks increased by 79% to 280 678 tonnes.

The post Potato market sees additional gains. appeared first on Agri Limpopo.

Agri Limpopo neem met dankbaarheid kennis van die artikel in Landbouweekblad van 28 Julie 2017 met die titel “Landbou móét Nasionale Ontwikkelingsplan toepas”.  Albei die medeskrywers van die artikel is ten nouste in voeling met grondvlak grondsake. Juis daarom is hul insigte en opinies van soveel belang.

Op 26 Julie 2017 het Agri Limpopo die waarskuwings deur Pete Steyl, president van Zimbabwe se CFU, aan SA boere i.t.v. grondhervormingskeuses, in ‘n mediaverklaring gekoppel aan Agri Limpopo se betrokkenheid by die ontwikkeling van die grondplan in Hoofstuk 6 van die NOP. Genoemde artikel in Landbouweekblad dui aan dat die skrywers tot dieselfde gevolgtrekking kom as die van Agri Limpopo: die voorgestelde plan in hoofstuk 6 van die NOP kan landbou help om doelwitte van die NOP te help verwesentlik, landbou bevorder en produsente ekonomies bevooordeel. Doelwitte soos inklusiewe ekonomiese- groei, voedselsekerheid en werkskepping behoort sin te maak vir elke landbouer,  besigheidslui en landsburgers in die algemeen.

Klik hier om die volledige mediavrystelling te lees.

The post Hoofstuk 6 van die NOP se plan vir grondhervorming. appeared first on Agri Limpopo.

To everyone who takes a bit of time to read what we write, thank you. Best wishes for 2018.

Highlights in today’s morning note

South Africa’s average dam levels: week ended 01 January 2018 (last year’s figures in brackets – 01 January 2017)

Source: Department of Water and Sanitation and Agbiz Research

Weather:

 While temperatures could rise to levels above 26 degrees Celsius at the start of this week, there is a possibility of light rainfall in most parts of the country within the next eight days (see figure 1 – attached report). However, this will not be sufficient to significantly improve soil moisture in summer crop producing areas. Meanwhile, the Northern Cape and Western Cape provinces might remain dry and warm over the observed period.

Maize:

 The expectations of rainfall in the latter part of 2017 did not materialise in most areas, particularly the western regions. As result, the maize planting process has not yet been completed in some areas. Moreover, the areas that managed to plant on time are currently experiencing heat stress, but no major damage reported thus far.

Farmers planned to plant 2.47 million hectares of maize this season, which is 6% lower than the 2016/17 production season. About 56% of the area is set to be for white maize, with 44% for yellow maize. However, this might change due to the aforementioned delays in planting in the western regions of the country. Overall, there will be more clarity when the National Crop Estimate Committee releases its estimates on 30 January 2018.

South Africa’s maize supplies are still solid. SAGIS recently reported that the country’s maize stocks were at 8.2 million tonnes in November 2017, which is twice the volume seen in the same period in 2016. This notable uptick is mainly due to a record commercial maize production of 16.74 million tonnes in the 2016/17 season.

From a trade perspective, South Africa exported 64 206 tonnes of maize in the weeks of 09 to 29 December 2017. The leading buyer was Japan with a share of 56%, all yellow maize. This placed South Africa’s 2017/18 total maize export volume at 1.7 million tonnes, which equates to 77% of the season’s export forecast of 2.2 million tonnes.

Wheat:

In December 2017, the National Crop Estimate Committee revised its 2017 wheat production estimates down by 7% from the previous month to 1.48 million tonnes. This is 23% lower than the previous season’s crop. The downward revision was mainly due to disappointing yields in the Western Cape and Free State provinces, on the back of unfavourable weather conditions. The sixth production estimates for 2017 wheat will be released on 30 January 2018.

Overall, this implies that South Africa will have to import at least 1.80 million tonnes of wheat in the 2017/18 marketing year in order to fulfil the domestic needs. This is almost double the previous marketing year’s imports of 934 765 tonnes.

South Africa imported 48 432 tonnes of wheat in the weeks of 09 to 29 December 2017. About 66% came from Russia and 34% from Argentina. This placed 2017/18 marketing year’s wheat imports at 625 073 tonnes, which equates to 35% of the seasonal import forecast of 1.80 million tonnes (This is under the assumption that domestic production will reach 1.48 million tonnes).  

Sunflower seed:

The expectations of heavy rainfall in the summer crop growing areas of South Africa did not materialise in most areas during the festive season, particularly the western parts of the country. As a result, the sunflower seed planting process has somewhat been delayed, and the areas that have planted continue to experienced heat stress which could possibly damage the crops.

The South African farmers intended to plant 665 500 hectares of sunflower seed in the 2017/18 production season, up by 5% from the previous season. Given the aforementioned realities, this target is unlikely to be achieved. The National Crop Estimate Committee will release the preliminary area planted estimates on the 30th of January 2018.

Aside from this, the country still has large supplies from the 2016/17 production season. South Africa’s sunflower seed ending stocks were recorded at 374 117 tonnes in November 2017, down by 20% from the previous month, but up by 32% from the corresponding period last year.

In terms of trade, South Africa exported 42 tonnes of sunflower seed to Namibia in November 2017, which is well above the previous month’s exports of a mere one tonne. This brought the country’s 2017/18 sunflower seed exports to 168 tonnes – all went to regional markets, namely; Botswana, Namibia and Swaziland.

Also worth noting is that sunflower seed consumption (crushed oil and cake) declined by 3% month-on-month to 92 650 tonnes in November 2017. However, this is 59% higher than the volume utilised in November 2016.

Soybeans:

Unlike other crops, such as maize and sunflower seed, most soybean growing areas of the country managed to plant on time, with the exception of few areas in the western parts of the country which experienced delays due to dryness. The expected rainfall at the end of 2017 did not materialise in some regions, particularly the western areas, where soil moisture is still low.

The South African farmers planned to plant an area of 720 000 hectares in the 2017/18 production season. However, the current warm weather conditions could hamper this target. That said, there will be more clarity when the National Crop Estimate Committee releases its preliminary area planted data at the end of this month.

Apart from that, South Africa’s soybean consumption (crushed oil and cake) was reported at 95 433 tonnes in November 2017, up by 51% from the previous month, and 57% from November 2016.  Also worth noting is that the soybean ending stocks were at 589 106 tonnes in November 2017, down by 15% from the previous month, but double the volume seen in November 2016 due to a large harvest in 2016/17 production season.

From a trade perspective, the large soybean harvest of 1.32 million tonnes received in 2016/17 production season implies that South Africa could receive minimal imports in the 2017/18 marketing year. This is a remarkable improvement following imports of 271 098 tonnes in the previous marketing year.

The country imported 1 324 tonnes of soybean in November 2017. About 78% of this came from Zambia and the balance from Malawi. This placed South Africa’s 2017/18 soybean imports to 26 392 tonnes, which equals to 94% of the seasonal import forecast of 28 000 tonnes.

RSA Potatoes:

After a positive start this year, the South African potatoes price came under pressure in Friday’s trade session, down by 2% from the previous day, closing at R42.65 per pocket (10kg). These losses were mainly underpinned by large stocks of 776 791 pockets (10kg bag) at the beginning of the trading session.

In addition, during the session, the market saw an uptick in deliveries as harvest activity picks up after a quiet period during the Christmas holidays. This led to a 6% increase in daily stocks to 824 387 pockets (10kg bag).

RSA Fruit:

After a wobbly performance in the latter part of 2017, the fruit market started the year again on a mixed footing driven by relatively lower stocks. The prices of bananas and oranges were up by 9% and 13% from the previous day, closing at R6.78 per kilogram and R7.04 per kilogram, respectively. This was partially due to lower stocks of 289 320 tonnes of bananas and 21 088 tonnes of oranges.

Meanwhile, the price of apples was down by 2% from the previous day, closing at R8.68 per kilogram. This followed an uptick in daily stocks to 135 710 tonnes.

SAFEX beef carcass:

The SAFEX beef carcass market started the year on a quiet footing with the price flat at R44.00 per kilogram.  However, this could differ from the physical market which continues to show solid activity and volumes.

In October 2017, South African farmers slaughtered 219 393 head of cattle, up by 3% from the previous month, but 7% lower compared to October 2016. The Red Meat Levy Admin will release an update of the cattle slaughtering data later this month, and that will probably show an uptick due to strong festive season demand.

Click below to read more reports by Wandile Sihlobo

Agbiz Morning Market Viewpoint on Agri-Commodities 08 January 2018

The post Agbiz Morning Market Viewpoint on Agri-Commodities: 08 January 2018 appeared first on Agri Limpopo.

South Africa’s average dam levels: week ended 26 March 2018, with the same week last year in brackets

Source: Department of Water and Sanitation and Agbiz Research

Maize:

In the fields, the maize crop is in good condition and could improve further following the recent rainfall. This week started on a dry and cool note, with clear skies over most sections of the maize belt. However, more rainfall could soon return but is expected to be in the form of fairly light and scattered showers.

The weather updates show a possibility of between 16 and 30 millimetres of rainfall over the maize growing areas of the country within the next two weeks. This will further improve soil moisture and benefit the crop, particularly the western sections of the Free State and North West provinces as the late planted maize is at stages of development that require high moisture.

Today the National Crop Estimates Committee will release its 2017/18 second production estimate for maize. Last month, the Committee placed its estimate at 12.2 million tonnes, higher than market expectations (although well below the previous season’s bumper harvest of 16.8 million tonnes). As highlighted in yesterday’s note, the International Grains Council recently revised South Africa’s 2017/18 maize production upwards by 900 000 tonnes from last month to 12.7 million tonnes.

From a trade perspective, South Africa exported 29 107 tonnes of maize in the week of 23 March 2018, up by 5 percent from the previous week. About 88 percent of these exports were white maize, with 12 percent being yellow maize. The leading buyer was again Venezuela with a share of 59 percent. The rest went to other regional markets, such as Namibia, Lesotho, Swaziland and Mozambique, amongst others. Overall, this placed South Africa’s 2017/18 maize marketing year exports at 2.1 million tonnes, which equates to 88 percent of the season’s export forecast of 2.4 million tonnes.

Wheat:

South Africa’s wheat market is currently off-season, but the recent weather developments in the major winter wheat production province, Western Cape, are worth mentioning. Yesterday, the South African Weather Service indicated that between April and June 2018, parts of the south-western cape regions could receive above-normal rainfall .

Moreover, the near-term prospects are also positive. The weather charts for the next two weeks show a possibility of light showers of about 16 millimetres over the Western Cape province. While a welcome development, this will nonetheless not make a meaningful improvement on dam levels which are critically low, estimated at 18 percent in the week of 26 March 2018, down by a percentage point from the previous week and 8-percentage points from the corresponding period last year.

From a trade front, there were no imports last week, the last imports were in the week of 16 March 2018, recorded at 30 635 tonnes. All of this originated from Latvia. This placed 2017/18 marketing year’s wheat imports at 1.17 million tonnes, which equates to 63 percent of the seasonal import forecast of 1.85 million tonnes.

While a net importer of wheat, South Africa continues to export wheat to regional markets. The 23rd batch of exports this season was recorded at 1 228 tonnes, up by 85 percent from the volume seen in the week of 16 March 2018. The exports were destined to Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland. Overall, this placed South Africa’s 2017/18 wheat exports at 19 144 tonnes.

Soybeans:

South Africa’s soybean crop is in generally good condition across the country. The recent heavy rainfall over the eastern parts of South Africa did not cause crop damage. Instead, there was an improvement in soil moisture which is conducive for the late-planted crop.

The key focus today is on the National Crop Estimates Committee which will release its second production estimates for South Africa’s 2017/18 soybeans in the afternoon. Last month, the Committee placed its estimate at a new record harvest of 1.4 million tonnes. We don’t foresee major changes in this estimate as weather conditions have been fairly favourable since the last assessment.

Aside from production aspects, the most recent data from SAGIS shows that South Africa’s soybean stocks were at 330 566 tonnes in February 2018, which is almost treble the volume seen in the corresponding period last month. Also worth noting is that soybean consumption (crushed oil and cake) was at 78 073 tonnes in February 2018, double the volume utilised in February 2017.

Using an estimate of 2.2 million tonnes of South Africa’s soybean crushing capacity, which equates to 183 333 tonnes per month, the country utilised 43% of its monthly soybean processing capacity in February 2018, which is also 2 percentage points lower than the previous month but double the capacity utilisation in February 2017.

Sunflower seed:

After good rainfall in the past few days, the start of this week provided a breather, characterised by dry and cool weather conditions over sunflower seed growing areas. The crop is in good shape and could remain in a fair condition throughout the season as light showers are expected over the next two weeks.

Last month, the National Crop Estimates Committee placed South Africa’s 2017/18 sunflower seed production at 731 505 tonnes, down by 16 percent from the 2016/17 production season due to a decline in area planted. The Committee will release an update in the afternoon today. This month’s estimate could remain fairly unchanged from last month, and if there are any adjustments, it will possibly be upwards.

Apart from the production dynamics, South Africa’s sunflower seed consumption (crushed oil and cake) increased by 3 percent month-on-month to 81 347 tonnes in February 2018. Moreover, this is 17 percent higher than the volume utilised in the corresponding period last year.

RSA Fruit:

Yesterday the fruit market saw widespread losses owing commercial selling and large stocks. The prices for apples and bananas were down by 17 percent and 8 percent from the previous day, closing at R6.44 and R6.84 per kilogram, respectively.

In addition, the price of oranges was down by 26 percent from the previous day due to commercial selling and settled at R3.51 per kilogram. However, these losses could soon be reversed due to lower stocks of 32 000 tonnes, compared to levels of 73 000 the previous day.

Full report by Wandile Sihlobo available below.

Agbiz Morning Market Viewpoint on Agri-Commodities 28 March 2018

The post Dry and cool weather conditions over sunflower seed growing areas appeared first on Agri Limpopo.

Chart: South Africa’s soybean production

Source: SAGIS, Agbiz Research  

Full report by Wandile Sihlobo available in the attachment below:

Agbiz Morning Market Viewpoint on Agri-Commodities 12 April 2018

The post SA to remain a net importer of soybeans in 2018/19 appeared first on Agri Limpopo.

Chart: Key wheat importers in sub-Saharan African region

Source: USDA, IGC, Agbiz Research   

Full report by Wandile Sihlobo attached below:

Agbiz Morning Market Viewpoint on Agri-Commodities 17 April 2018

The post Key wheat importers in sub-Saharan African region appeared first on Agri Limpopo.

• The reduction in employment covered a number of provinces, but the case of the Western Cape province came as no surprise as the provincial government and the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy study already signalled a possibility of 30 230 agricultural job losses in the province this year due to drought. In the first quarter of 2018, the Western Cape’s agricultural employment declined by 3% y/y. With that said, the province remains a leading agricultural employer, accounting for a 25% share in the national agricultural labour market.
• Agricultural employment in KwaZulu Natal, Gauteng, Limpopo, North West and Mpumalanga provinces declined 19% y/y, 19% y/y, 7% y/y, 6% y/y and 3% y/y, respectively. Meanwhile, the Free State, Eastern and Northern Cape provinces saw job gains of 31% y/y, 4% y/y and 3% y/y, respectively (see Chart 2).
• In terms of sub-sector performance, the reduction in annual employment was recorded in almost all sub-sectors with the exception of forestry, logging and related services (see Chart 3).
• Looking ahead – The effects of the Western Cape province’s drought combined with the reduced area plantings in the summer crop growing regions of the country could potentially weaken the performance of the agricultural labour market in the coming quarters.
• In terms of policy development, the business sector has generally accepted the impending introduction of the National Minimum Wage, but it will affect some sub-sectors within the agricultural sector more than others depending on the labour intensity and average labour skill required. For example, the horticultural sector is one of the likely sub-sectors to be impacted by the introduction of the National Minimum Wage as it is labour intensive relative to other sub-sectors.

Read the full report by Wandile Sihlobo below:

SA agricultural employment down by 3% year on year in Q1, 2018

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