maize production – Agri Limpopo

Producer deliveries data reflects good progress in maize harvest process

Deidre Carter — Thu, 02 Aug 2018 12:58:07 +0000

The favourable weather conditions in the past couple of weeks provided conducive conditions for the harvest process. The progress is reflected in the volumes of maize delivered to commercial silos which amounted to 813 814 tonnes in the week of 27 July 2018, up by 6 percent from the previous week.
About 66 percent of this was white maize, with 34 percent being yellow maize. This indicates that the central and the western parts of South Africa which predominantly produce white maize are making good progress, unlike the previous weeks when the deliveries were largely yellow maize, which is mostly planted in the eastern parts of South Africa.
This placed the country’s 2018/19 maize marketing year producer deliveries at 7.5 million tonnes, which equates to 57 percent of the estimated harvest of 13.2 million tonnes. Yellow maize accounts for 52 percent of overall maize deliveries, with white maize accounting for 48 percent. The yields in areas that have harvested largely varied between average and above average, which is somewhat in line with market expectations. More maize will be delivered in the coming weeks as the expected cool and drier weather conditions in most parts of the country in the next two weeks could provide favourable conditions to the harvest process.
Today the focus will be on weekly grain trade data which is due for release at midday. In the week of 20 July 2018, South Africa had already exported 838 925 tonnes of maize, which equates to 34 percent of the seasonal export forecast. The leading destinations or markets were Vietnam, Taiwan, South Korea, Italy and Botswana.

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Agbiz Morning Market Viewpoint on Agri-Commodities: Additional views on the upcoming 2018/19 maize production_11 September 2018

Arithmus — Tue, 11 Sep 2018 15:19:15 +0000

To build on the comments shared yesterday regarding the upcoming new production season, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) will release an update of its estimates for South Africa’s 2018/19 maize production tomorrow evening. Last month, the agency placed its preliminary estimate at 14.0 million tonnes, up by a percentage point from the 2017/18 production season.
We did not attach much weight on that particular estimate as the weather outlook for the next season remains quite uncertain, with talks of a possible d El Niño, as well as the fact that planting has not even started in the country. We will probably view today’s data in the same light until there is clarity regarding the weather outlook.
Some of the world’s leading weather forecasters, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and International Research Institute for Climate and Society at Columbia University will release their updates of the El Niño Watch system this week. This will inform our judgment of USDA’s forecasts for South Africa’s 2018/19 maize production. The South African Weather Service will release its Seasonal Climate Watch later in the month.
While all the aforementioned data points will assist in shaping the view for South Africa’s 2018/19 maize production, the key data point to keep an eye on is the farmers’ intentions to plant data which will be released by the local Crop Estimate Committee on 25 October 2018.
From a global perspective, last month the USDA placed the world’s 2018/19 maize production at 1.06 billion tonnes. This is a percentage point higher than the International Grains Council’s estimate for the corresponding period and 3 percent higher than the previous season’s harvest. An update will be released tomorrow.

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The USDA revised its estimate for SA’s 2018/19 maize production down by 4% from last month

Arithmus — Thu, 13 Sep 2018 08:48:30 +0000

Last night, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) revised its estimate for South Africa’s 2018/19 maize production down by 4 percent from last month to 13.0 million tonnes. While this is 6 percent lower than the 2017/18 production season, it is still above the long-term average production of about 12.5 million tonnes.
Although these estimates are plausible, the weather outlook for the next season remains quite uncertain, with talks of a possible El Niño which could potentially change this fairly optimistic picture. The planting process will commence next month. It is still unclear whether South African farmers will reduce the intentions to plant because of this forecast weather phenomenon or will plant a normal area of about 2.4 million hectares. We will have a better indication when the National Crop Estimate Committee releases its estimates on 25 October 2018.
Aside from the new season’s prospects, the 2017/18 season’s maize harvest process continued with minimal interruption in the past couple of weeks, albeit being behind schedule due to the late start of the season on the back of unfavourable weather conditions late last year into early January 2018. A large share of the crop has already been delivered to commercial silos. In the week of 07 September 2018, maize producer deliveries amounted to 138 744 tonnes, down by 60 percent from the previous week.
This placed South Africa’s 2018/19 maize marketing year producer deliveries at 10.8 million tonnes, which equates to 82 percent of the estimated commercial harvest of 13.2 million tonnes. This season the yields largely varied between average and above average, which is somewhat in line with market expectations. While the harvest process has largely been completed, additional maize will still be delivered in the coming months.

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Maize growing areas of SA could get good showers within the next two weeks

Arithmus — Thu, 15 Nov 2018 06:27:55 +0000

The drier weather conditions, which have been a hindering factor for maize planting activity in the western parts of South Africa, could ease as the weather forecast for the next two weeks shows prospects of higher rainfall over most parts of the country. This will help improve soil moisture and then planting activity and germination process in areas that have already planted in the eastern parts of the country.
The weather will continue to dominate the market over the coming weeks, at least until the end of February 2019, when a large share of the crop passes the pollination stage of development. Unfortunately, the medium term weather outlook presents some risks on this front. While the outlook for the near term is favourable, with prospects of rainfall, South Africa could experience dryness between the end of January and March 2019. This period coincides with pollination which generally requires high moisture in order to boost yields.
Aside from the weather developments, there is general optimism in the market that South African farmers could plant 2.4 million hectares of maize in the 2018/19 season, up by 6% from the 2017/18 production estimate, according to the framers’ intentions to plant data released by the Crop Estimate Committee last month. The first plantings estimate, which will present a view of actual activity, will be released on 29 January 2019.
On the global front, although 2018/19 maize production estimate is at 1.1 billion tonnes, 2 percent higher than the previous season, the supplies will still be tight due to increasing global consumption, specifically from the animal feed industry. This, in part, is sparked by the possible switch from wheat to maize due to relatively lower prices. The wheat market prices could increase somewhat in the coming months due to expected lower supplies, hence the prospects for a switch to maize in some countries.

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Sourced: Agbiz, Agribusiness Research

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The recent outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease could disrupt SA beef exports

Arithmus — Mon, 14 Jan 2019 14:37:39 +0000

The South African beef sector will be under pressure in 2019 due to rising feed costs, as well as potentially slowing exports on the back of a foot-and-mouth disease outbreak.
From a consumer perspective, the beef industry challenges will, however, have positive short-to-medium term benefits as slowing exports would translate into an increase in domestic supply and, in turn, slow meat price inflation.
Our initial maize production estimate of 12.2 million tonnes will not materialise, the crop will most likely be lower due to a potential decline in area planting, as well as prospects of lower yields in late-planted areas.
Soybean harvest will most likely be lower than the 2017/18 production season due to similar factors as maize, which is a decline in area plantings and expectations of poor yields in some areas.
Sunflower seed typically surprises by doing well in seasons that are characterised by prolonged dry spells, as farmers tend to shift from maize to sunflower seed plantings in late-rain seasons. Therefore, sunflower production projections remain uncertain, at least until planting data is received.
The weather will continue to play a key role in the South African agricultural markets in the next three months. Thereafter, the focus will shift to winter crop producing areas. The near-term precipitation prospects are constructive (see page 6).
South Africa’s rice imports will increase in 2019 driven by an uptick in consumption.
The tough production conditions in the grains and oilseeds subsectors will most likely add upward pressure on consumer prices, but we do not expect a notable uptick in headline food price inflation, as lower meat prices will somewhat overshadow the potential upswings.

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Sourced: Agbiz, Agriculture Research

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South Africa’s agricultural exports grew by 7% y/y in 2018

Arithmus — Mon, 11 Feb 2019 06:33:23 +0000

In 2018, South Africa’s agricultural exports grew by 7% y/y to US$10.6 billion, a record level in a dataset starting from 2001.

From a destination point of view, the African continent and Europe continued to be the largest markets for South Africa’s agricultural exports, collectively absorbing 66% of total exports in 2018, measured in value terms.

From a national policy perspective, in his 2019 State of the Nation Address, President Ramaphosa signalled that potential expansion in agricultural production would mainly be on export-oriented products. There is already a clear pathway for this initiative as South Africa is currently well-positioned in terms of export markets, and there is clarity about products that show a growing demand in the world market.

Although South Africa has an import substitution objective through its Industrial Policy Action Plan, the substitution of some of the key imported agricultural products is unlikely in the foreseeable future as South Africa does not have favourable agroecological conditions, specifically for the production of palm oil and rice.

From a production perspective, at first, it was the International Grains Council which placed its estimate for South Africa’s 2018/19 maize production at 10.7 million tonnes, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has also joined in with an 11.5 million tonnes estimate. Both these estimates are well below 2017/18 production of 13.5 million tonnes (commercial and non-commercial production).

Although most areas of the country received rainfall in the past couple of weeks, there has not been any material improvements in summer grains conditions, particularly in the western parts of South Africa (more precisely North West and Free State).

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Sourced: Agbiz, Agribusiness Research

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