rainfall – Agri Limpopo

Dam levels show slight improvement.

Arithmus — Mon, 21 Aug 2017 07:09:22 +0000

The recent update for the week ending 14 August 2017 shows that Western Cape province’s dams averaged 30%, which is a 2% improvement from last week, but 28% below the same period last year. Fortunately, the Northern Cape and Free State provinces, which are mostly irrigated are in good shape with dam levels over 80% full.

Highlights in today’s morning note

Wheat:

The wheat crop in many parts of the Western Cape province is in a fair condition following last week’s rainfall. However, there is a need for follow-up rains due to lower soil moisture. The recent showers were not sufficient to replenish the soil moisture.

Maize:

Most parts of South Africa have already completed the harvest process. The ones that have not yet finished could get momentum from the expected drier and cool weather conditions within the next two weeks.

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Soybeans:

The domestic soybean data calendar is fairly light this week with SAGIS monthly data due for release at midday on Friday. This will give an indication of the current stocks levels, monthly soybean consumption, as well as imports and exports data.

Sunflower seed:

Similar to soybeans, this week’s calendar in the South African sunflower seed market is light with one key data release on Fridaymidday. SAGIS will release monthly stocks, consumption, and trade data. Overall, the market will most likely be driven by the currency movements and traded volumes.

RSA Potatoes:

The South African potatoes market saw marginal gains in Friday’s trade session with the price up by 0.56% from the previous day, closing at R28.93 per pocket (10kg). These gains came on the back of relatively lower stocks in the market.

SAFEX beef:

The SAFEX beef market has not shown any notable movements this month due to thinly traded volumes. The price remains flat at R46.00 per kilogramme. This means that the SAFEX beef carcass prices could differ from the physical market prices.

RSA fruit:

The fruit market ended the past week on a mixed footing. The price of apples was down by 3% from the previous day, closing at R7.65 per kilogramme. Meanwhile, the prices of bananas and oranges were up by 2% and 21% from the previous day, closing at R5.78 per kilogramme and R3.92 per kilogramme, respectively.

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Winter rainfall could be slightly delayed

Arithmus — Wed, 18 Apr 2018 07:50:46 +0000

It seems that the winter rainfall, which typically starts at the end April in the Western Cape province, could be slightly delayed. The weather charts have cleared across most parts of the province, with light showers expected within the next eight days to be mainly concentrated towards the coastal areas.
With that said, the weather forecasts for the week ending 03 May 2018 show a bit of improvement, with chances of between 16 and 20 millimetres of rainfall across the province. While a welcome development, this might not make a meaningful improvement in soil moisture. The province needs intense and continuous rainfall following the months of dryness.
Moreover, this means the provincial dam levels could remain at fairly lower levels for some time. In the week of 16 April 2018, the dams averaged 17 percent, fairly unchanged from the previous week, but 6 percentage points lower than the corresponding period last year (see Map below for dam levels).
Above all, the 2018 winter wheat production season could be better than last year. While rainfall could be delayed, there is a bit of optimism following the South African Weather Service view that parts of the south-western cape regions of the country could receive above-normal rainfall between the end of April and June 2018.
As set out last week, this rainfall will be critical for improving soil moisture content ahead of planting, which starts next month. Already, the USDA forecast South Africa’s 2018/19 wheat production at 1.65 million tonnes, up by 8 percent from the previous season.

Chart: South Africa’s average dam levels: week ended 16 April 2018, with the same week last year in brackets

Source: Department of Water and Sanitation and Agbiz Research

Full report by Wandile Sihlobo in attachment below:

Agbiz Morning Market Viewpoint on Agri-Commodities 18 April 2018

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South African Agricultural Commodities Weekly Wrap

Arithmus — Fri, 18 May 2018 09:56:51 +0000

The weather was again a primary focus in the South Africa grain and oilseed market this week. The most notable releases were the Seasonal Climate Forecast Update from the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate Change Society at the Columbia University, which suggested that the Western Cape province could receive above-normal rainfall between June and August 2018.
The IRI’s estimate was partly in line with the sentiments expressed in South African Weather Service’s Seasonal Climate Watch released in March 2018. The forecast rainfall could improve soil moisture in the province and subsequently benefit the new season winter crops.
Aside from the weather dynamics, the grain and oilseed market ended the week in negative territory owing to a combination of factors which included the harvest pressure, expectations of large harvest and lower Chicago grain prices, amongst others.
The SAFEX beef carcass market experienced a quiet week with prices unchanged from levels seen last week.

Read the full report by Wandile Sihlobo below:

South African Agricultural Commodities Weekly Wrap 18 May 2018

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South African Agricultural Commodities Weekly Wrap

Arithmus — Fri, 12 Oct 2018 07:27:45 +0000

The weather was a key focus this week, not only because the 2018/19 summer grain planting window has recently opened in the eastern and central parts of South Africa, but also because of the mixed weather prospects for the season.
The local weather agency forecast a likelihood of above-normal rainfall between November 2018 and January 2019, with dryness later in summer. Meanwhile, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology placed the chances of an El Niño event developing this year at 70 percent, up from the previous estimate of 55 percent.
This means that even if the summer crops could have a good start of the season, the pollination stages could fall under the dry spell which might negatively affect the yields. At the moment, it is unclear how farmers will react to this. We will have a better view when the Crop Estimate Committee releases the plantings intentions data on 25 October.
Aside from the grain and oilseed market, the SAFEX beef carcass market experienced a quiet week with prices unchanged from levels seen last week. In terms of the supply, the South African farmers slaughtered 211 951 head of cattle in August 2018, down by 11 percent from August 2017 due to the herd rebuilding process after a reduction during the 2015-16 drought.