South African farmers – Agri Limpopo

Good Improvement in SA Soil Moisture

Arithmus — Wed, 24 Oct 2018 07:41:16 +0000

Although there is uncertainty about the weather outlook later in the 2018/19 summer season with talks of a possible El Niño, the planting period started on good footing. South Africa has had well-timed rain events so far which have improved soil moisture for early planting in the eastern and central regions (see Figure 1).
The planting process has begun in several areas and is set to gain momentum over the next couple of weeks. This is all due to improved soil moisture in the eastern regions, as previously mentioned, and also prospects of widespread higher rainfall in the first week of November, which will further uplift soil moisture and thereafter encourage farmers in the western areas of South Africa to also commence with planting activity.
This is all unsurprising as the optimal planting window for yellow maize and soybeans growing areas, the eastern and central regions of South Africa, opened earlier this month and expected to continue until late November. White maize and sunflower seed optimal planting window will only open at the beginning of next month in the western regions of South Africa and continue until late December.
As we have been highlighting throughout the week, tomorrow we will get a sense of South Africa’s 2018/19 maize area planting when the Crop Estimate Committee releases its monthly data.
For context, the South African farmers planted 2.3 million hectares of white and yellow commercial maize in the 2017/18 production season, down by 12 percent year-on-year. In the same season, the communal farmers or non-commercial maize planting was about 314 835 hectares, down by 14 percent from the 2016/17 production season.

Click HERE for the full report.

Sourced: Agbiz Morning Market Viewpoint on Agri-Commodities

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South African farmers intend to increase summer crop hectares in 2018/19

Arithmus — Fri, 26 Oct 2018 06:28:42 +0000

The ‘intentions to plant’ data provided tentative evidence that South Africa could have another good production season, which might keep the country’s grain supplies in good shape at least until 2020. This is under the assumption that the expected El Niño, which we cautioned about in our previous notes, could be fairly weak and potentially occur later in the summer season as some forecasters already suggest. Figures released this afternoon by the national Crop Estimate Committee shows that South African farmers intend to increase the area planting for summer grain and oilseed by 5 percent from 2017/18 season to 4.03 million hectares. Most summer crops showed an uptick, with the exception of sunflower seed and groundnuts. This is partly driven by the favourable agricultural commodity prices.

To dive into the details of the aforementioned summary, South African farmers intend to plant 2.4 million hectares of maize, up by 6% from the 2017/18 production estimate. This was in line with our and Bloomberg’s consensus forecast of 6% y/y uptick in area plantings. About 1.3 million hectares is white maize with 1.1 million hectares being yellow maize, both up from levels planted in the 2017/18 production season.
Soybeans continue to surprise us, pleasantly, as farmers intend to lift the area planting to a new record of 851 800 hectares, up by 8% y/y. This is supported by growing demand in the domestic animal feed market. On the downward side, the area intended for sunflower seed plantings could fall by 4% y/y to 575 000 hectares.
The planting activity has begun in the eastern and central parts of South Africa following recent rainfall which somewhat improved soil moisture. The South African Weather Service forecasts higher rainfall over summer crop growing areas between November 2018 and January 2019, which bodes well with the new season crop. However, the period thereafter could experience dryness associated with expected El Niño, albeit some weather forecasters arguing that it could be fairly weaker.
We worry about the potential impact of this on crops as it could coincides with pollination stages of development of some crops. We will keep a close eye on this in the coming months.

Click HERE for the full report.

Sourced: Agbiz, Agribusiness Research

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South Africa’s Agricultural Machinery Sales Slow in November 2018

Arithmus — Tue, 11 Dec 2018 06:34:33 +0000

The decline in South Africa’s tractors and combine harvesters sales to 428 and 9 units, respectively, in November 2018 comes as no surprise as most farmers bought some equipment in the past couple of months. This is evident from South Africa’s tractors sales for the first 11 months of this year, which amounted to 6 246 units, up by 4% higher than the corresponding period last year. Over the same period, the combine harvesters’ sales amounted to 194 units, up by a percentage point from the first 11 months of 2017. While the annual uptick in agricultural machinery sales signals the potential for increased production in the sector, especially in the case of tractor sales for the year so far, the drier weather conditions in most parts of the country have stalled planting, and have raised concerns about the 2018/19 grains and oilseeds harvest.
The data released over the weekend by the South African Agricultural Machinery Association showed that tractor sales slowed by 27% y/y in November 2018 to 428 units. (See Figure 1). While the declining trend was unsurprising, the magnitude of it exceeded our expectations of an 11% y/y drop.
Moreover, the aforementioned 4% annual increase in tractor sales in the first 11 months of the year is supportive of the optimism expressed by farmers in the intentions-to-plant survey data a few months back. South African farmers intended to increase the area planting for summer grain and oilseed by 5% from 2017/18 season to 4.03 million hectares. With that said, it is unclear if this target will materialise due to poor weather conditions. The central and western parts of the summer rainfall area, which mainly produce white maize and sunflower seed, would have planted a large share of the crop by this time of the year, but there is still minimal activity on the ground due to dryness.
In terms of the combine harvests sales, the 69% y/y decline to 9 units in November 2018 mirrors the slowing pace in harvesting activity in the winter crop producing areas as farmers in the leading provinces such as the Western Cape have completed the process. But the 1% annual uptick for the first 11 months of this year was due to the fact that the 2018/19 winter crop production is higher than last year. Most notably, the 2018/19 winter wheat and barley harvest are set to be up by 21% y/y and 31% y/y to 1.86 million tonnes and 401 840 tonnes, respectively.

Click HERE to view the full report.

Sourced: Agbiz, Agribusiness Research

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