South African Weather Service – Agri Limpopo

Chances of an El Niño weather event developing this year at 70%

Arithmus — Wed, 10 Oct 2018 12:27:31 +0000

On Monday, we painted a somewhat optimistic picture regarding the weather outlook this year, basing our opinion on the South African Weather Service’s report which indicated a possibility of above-normal rainfall over most parts of the summer crop growing areas between November 2018 and January 2019, with a chance of dryness later in the summer season due to an expected El Niño.
At the time, this view was in line with the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. However, yesterday the Australians placed the chances of an El Niño weather event developing this year at 70 percent, up from the previous estimate of 55 percent. This suggests that there is a higher chance of that the 2018/19 maize production season, which opened at the beginning of this month, could experience dryness.
It is still unclear whether South African farmers will reduce the intentions to plant because of this forecast. However, we will have a better indication when the Crop Estimate Committee releases the ‘farmers’ intentions to plant’ data for the 2018/19 production season on 25 October 2018.

Click HERE to view the full report.

Sourced: Agbiz Morning Market Viewpoint on Agri-Commodities

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South African Agricultural Market Viewpoint: 04 February 2019

Arithmus — Mon, 04 Feb 2019 10:16:29 +0000

Agriculture has featured prominently in policy debates as one of the sectors that can potentially yield employment-creating growth in rural areas in South Africa. This is under the assumption that there could be potential expansion in area planted to the horticulture and field crop subsectors.

The focus areas for potential expansion, which we have also argued for are KwaZulu-Natal, the Eastern Cape and Limpopo which still have roughly 1.6 million to 1.8 million hectares of underutilised land.

But expansion in human settlement in most rural areas of the aforementioned provinces might hinder potential expansion of agriculture.

In terms of grains and oilseeds, the recent preliminary planting data provided an encouraging picture of higher than expected plantings, but it is important to stress that these are initial estimates, there could be a revision next month and our view still leans towards a possible downward adjustment.

In production seasons where grains and oilseeds plantings have occurred during optimal periods, the weather would be a key focus between October and February. But this time around, the planting process was quite late in some areas which means the need for rainfall will extend beyond the typical February pollination period.

On 01 February 2019, the South African Weather Service indicated a likelihood of above-normal rainfall conditions over the summer rainfall regions during early autumn (Feb-Mar-Apr).

Click HERE to view the full report.

Sourced: Agbiz, Agribusiness Research

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SA farmers increased summer crop area planting

Arithmus — Thu, 28 Feb 2019 06:22:18 +0000

The recently released first estimate for South Africa’s 2018/19 summer grains and oilseeds area plantings and production proved just how difficult it is to make predictions in a drier season. Fortunately, the numbers leaned more to the positive than the reduction that market analysts, ourselves included, previously feared. South African farmers planted 3.7 million hectares of all summer grains and oilseeds, up by 3% from the previous estimate, but still down by 3% from the 2017/18 season. From a yield perspective, the numbers are somewhat disappointing but not gloomier. For example, South Africa’s maize production is estimated at 10.5 million tonnes, slightly below the lower end of market expectations of 10.7 million tonnes. Given that South Africa consumes roughly 10.8 million tonnes a year, if the aforementioned harvest materialises, the country would have sufficient supplies in 2019/20 marketing year, accounting for an opening stock of 3.5 million tonnes which will add into the supplies.

To dive into more details, white maize area plantings were revised up to 1.3 million hectares from last month, while yellow maize area plantings were slashed from the previous estimate to 1.0 million hectares. This then boosted the production expectations to 5.2 million tonnes of white maize and 5.3 million tonnes of yellow maize. Although this will put South Africa in better footing than we previously feared, it is 16% lower than the 2017/18 harvest due to expectations of poor yields in some areas, following erratic rainfall at the start of the season.

Moreover, the 2018/19 soybean plantings were revised down from last month by 2% to 730 500 hectares. This is 8% lower than the 2017/18 production season. From a yield perspective, production could amount to 1.3 million tonnes, which is slightly below our expectations of 1.4 million tonnes, and 17% lower than the 2017/18 season. Sunflowers seed area plantings were revised up from last month, and that captures the increased activity after late rainfall in parts of the North West. Be that as it may, production is still set to be 16% less than the 2017/18 production season (Figure 1). Other small grains harvest, sorghum and dry beans could be up from last season.

Going forward, the weather will be an important determinate of whether South Africa receives a better harvest or not. At the moment, the outlook is favourable, with the South African Weather Service indicating a possibility of above-normal rainfall between February and April 2019 over most summer grains and oilseeds growing areas.

Click HERE to view the full report.

Sourced: Agbiz, Agribusiness Research

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