summer grains – Agri Limpopo

South African Agricultural Commodities Weekly Wrap

Arithmus — Fri, 02 Nov 2018 09:44:42 +0000

From planting to pollination, which is typically the period between October and February, the weather becomes an important factor in the South African summer grains and oilseeds market.
Fortunately, this year, although there are concerns about a possible El Niño later in summer, the season started on a sound footing with widespread rainfall in the eastern and central parts of the country.
The planting activity is gaining ground in most areas, but it is yet to be seen if it will reach the intended area of 4.03 million tonnes in the 2018/19 production season, an increase of 5 percent year-on-year.
In the winter crop growing areas, harvesting is gaining momentum and the progress is reflected in the volume of wheat delivered to commercial silos in the Western Cape. There will most likely be good progress within the next two weeks as the weather forecast currently shows clear skies over most parts of the province.
The SAFEX beef carcass market experienced a quiet week with prices unchanged from levels seen last week. In terms of the supply, the South African farmers slaughtered 189 108 head of cattle in September 2018, down by 11 percent year-on-year due to the herd rebuilding process after a reduction during the 2015-16 drought.

Click HERE for the full report.

Sourced: Agbiz, Agribusiness Research

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SA maize hectares could be revised down further in the coming months

Arithmus — Wed, 30 Jan 2019 13:40:32 +0000

Today the Crop Estimate Committee’s summer grains preliminary plantings data showed that the area planted to maize is 2.3 million hectares. About 1.3 million hectares is white maize, with 1.0 million hectares being yellow maize. This came as a surprise as we had projection of 1.98 million hectares. We suspect that the late plantings might have been more than anticipated following early January rainfall. While this a welcome development, it is important to stress that these are initial estimates, there could be a revision next month and our view still leans towards a possible downward adjustment.

The important question at the moment is, what size of maize crop will South Africa have in the 2018/19 production season? The estimates in the market currently vary between 10.4 and 12.0 million tonnes, which is plausible if one assumes the aforementioned area and average yields, although that is dependent on good rainfall which is still proving to be a challenge at the present moment in the western areas of the South African maize-belt.

Given that South Africa’s maize consumption is about 10.8 million tonnes a year, a harvest of at least 10.4 million tonnes or even as low as 8.0 million tonnes would still ensure sufficient supplies for the country, as there could be fairly large stocks of about 3.4 million tonnes at the beginning of the 2019/20 marketing year in May 2019. This is under the assumption that there could be minimal exports, which is yet to been seen as our neighbouring countries could experience a shortage. Essentially, today’s data does not change our food inflation outlook of a possible moderate uptick this year to an average of 5% despite the recent increase in maize prices (for more information on food inflation, see Consumers will feel the pinch … but not everywhere, 24 January 2019).

The other crop that came as a surprise was sunflower seed area plantings, at about 444 000 hectares down by 26% from the area planted in 2017/18 production year. Unlike the case of maize where we expected a decline in area planting, we had anticipated an uptick on sunflower seed following increased planting activity earlier this month. We foresee a possible upward adjustment when the Committee releases its revised estimates in February. Soybean plantings are estimated at 743 600 hectares, down by 6% from the previous season.

Click HERE for the full report.

Sourced: Agbiz, Agribusiness Research

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SA farmers increased summer crop area planting

Arithmus — Thu, 28 Feb 2019 06:22:18 +0000

The recently released first estimate for South Africa’s 2018/19 summer grains and oilseeds area plantings and production proved just how difficult it is to make predictions in a drier season. Fortunately, the numbers leaned more to the positive than the reduction that market analysts, ourselves included, previously feared. South African farmers planted 3.7 million hectares of all summer grains and oilseeds, up by 3% from the previous estimate, but still down by 3% from the 2017/18 season. From a yield perspective, the numbers are somewhat disappointing but not gloomier. For example, South Africa’s maize production is estimated at 10.5 million tonnes, slightly below the lower end of market expectations of 10.7 million tonnes. Given that South Africa consumes roughly 10.8 million tonnes a year, if the aforementioned harvest materialises, the country would have sufficient supplies in 2019/20 marketing year, accounting for an opening stock of 3.5 million tonnes which will add into the supplies.

To dive into more details, white maize area plantings were revised up to 1.3 million hectares from last month, while yellow maize area plantings were slashed from the previous estimate to 1.0 million hectares. This then boosted the production expectations to 5.2 million tonnes of white maize and 5.3 million tonnes of yellow maize. Although this will put South Africa in better footing than we previously feared, it is 16% lower than the 2017/18 harvest due to expectations of poor yields in some areas, following erratic rainfall at the start of the season.

Moreover, the 2018/19 soybean plantings were revised down from last month by 2% to 730 500 hectares. This is 8% lower than the 2017/18 production season. From a yield perspective, production could amount to 1.3 million tonnes, which is slightly below our expectations of 1.4 million tonnes, and 17% lower than the 2017/18 season. Sunflowers seed area plantings were revised up from last month, and that captures the increased activity after late rainfall in parts of the North West. Be that as it may, production is still set to be 16% less than the 2017/18 production season (Figure 1). Other small grains harvest, sorghum and dry beans could be up from last season.

Going forward, the weather will be an important determinate of whether South Africa receives a better harvest or not. At the moment, the outlook is favourable, with the South African Weather Service indicating a possibility of above-normal rainfall between February and April 2019 over most summer grains and oilseeds growing areas.

Click HERE to view the full report.

Sourced: Agbiz, Agribusiness Research

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