Sub-Saharan Africa’s 2017/18 wheat imports up by 18% y/y

Arithmus — Mon, 16 Apr 2018 06:39:22 +0000

Drier and warm weather conditions have kept the US wheat on the back foot. On 08 April 2018, farmers had planted only 2 percent of the intended area for spring wheat, well below the area planted at the corresponding period last year, according to data from the USDA. These delays were mainly caused by persistent dryness in some States.
At the same time, the US winter wheat crop conditions were rated at 30 percent good/excellent, which is 23 percentage points lower than the same period last year. This too was largely due to persistent dryness in winter wheat growing areas. The USDA will release an update of US crop conditions later today. It is most likely that there is marginal progress from the aforementioned rates, as a large part of last week was mostly dry and cool in US wheat growing areas. The improvements could be seen if the expected rainfall this week materialises.
From a global perspective, the wheat market is well supplied. Last week, the USDA placed its 2017/18 global wheat production at 758 million tonnes, up by a percentage point from the previous season. At the same time, the ending stock was estimated at 271 million tonnes, up by 6 percent from the 2016/17 season.
This means that key wheat importing regions such as North Africa, Middle East and sub-Saharan Africa, amongst others, will be well supplied in the 2017/18 season, despite the decline in production in countries such as the US, Canada and Australia. The uptick in global supplies is boosted by a large harvest in Russia and India. The USDA forecasts sub-Saharan Africa’s 2017/18 wheat production at 26 million tonnes, up by 18 percent from the previous season. This equates to a 14 percent share of global wheat imports (see Chart below).

Chart: Global wheat imports

Source: USDA, Agbiz Research

Full article by Wandile Sihlobo in attatchment below:

Agbiz Morning Market Viewpoint on Agri-Commodities 16 April 2018

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The winter wheat harvest process is slowly gaining momentum in the Western Cape

Arithmus — Thu, 01 Nov 2018 06:48:30 +0000

The winter wheat harvest process is slowly gaining momentum in the Western Cape. The most recent data from SAGIS shows that 78 731 tonnes of wheat were delivered to commercial silos in the week of 26 October 2018, well above the initial deliveries of 7 716 tonnes.
While some areas of the province received light showers at the start of the week, which somewhat slowed the harvest process, there has now been an improvement. The weather conditions were generally favourable yesterday and some farmers have resumed the harvest process. Looking ahead, the weather forecast for the next two weeks shows clear skies with scattered clouds over most parts of the Western Cape, which means the harvest process could continue with interruptions in some areas.
We place more emphasis on this particular province, not only because the crop matured earlier than other provinces due to differences in planting dates, but because of its share contribution to South African wheat production. The province accounts for 49 percent of the estimated 1.86 million tonnes in the 2018/19 production season. Most importantly, the province’s wheat production is up by 54 percent from the 2017/18 season. This is due to favourable weather conditions which have led to fairly higher yields in most areas, not the expansion in the area. In fact, the area planted this season down marginally from the 2017/18.
This optimism does not only end within the Western Cape, but the crop growing conditions are also favourable in provinces such as the Northern Cape, Free State, Eastern Cape and Limpopo, amongst others – all thanks to recent showers and improved water levels in the dams for irrigation following good summer and winter rainfall. Above all, if the aforementioned harvest projection of 1.86 million tonnes materialises, South Africa’s wheat imports could fall by a third from last year’s volume to 1.4 million tonnes in the 2018/19 marketing year.

Click HERE to view the full report.

Sourced: Agbiz, Agribusiness Research

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wheat imports – Agri Limpopo

Sub-Saharan Africa’s 2017/18 wheat imports up by 18% y/y

The winter wheat harvest process is slowly gaining momentum in the Western Cape