All eyes on the CEC’s fifth summer crop production estimates
The weather and trade policy remain topical issues in SA wheat market
June 25, 2018
Maize harvest activity is gaining momentum across the country
June 28, 2018
Today the most anticipated release is the National Crop Estimate Committee’s fifth production estimate for 2017/18 summer crops which be out in the afternoon. Reuters analysts’ survey shows that the Committee could lift its estimate by 0.6 percent from the current estimate of 12.91 million tonnes to 12.99 million tonnes (also above average production of 12.50 million tonnes). This is generally in line with our view. Reports from farmers suggest that a number of regions could possibly receive yields that vary between average and above-average.
Also due for release today is maize producer deliveries data, which should show an uptick given that weather conditions have been quite favourable for harvest activity in the past couple of weeks. To recap, the volume of maize delivered to commercial silos in the first seven weeks of the 2018/19 marketing year is estimated at 2.24 million tonnes, which equates to 17 percent of the estimated harvest of 12.91 million tonnes.
Yesterday, the weekly maize trade data was quite encouraging with exports at 70 172 tonnes in the week of 22 June 2018, which is a 49 percent increase from the previous week. About 97 percent was yellow maize, with 3 percent being white maize.
The leading buyer was Vietnam, accounting for 90 percent of the weekly exports. Trailing Vietnam was Botswana and Swaziland, with 7 percent and 4 percent shares, respectively. Overall, this placed South Africa’s 2018/19 maize exports at 400 833 tonnes, which equates to 20 percent of the seasonal export forecast.
Also worth noting is that South Africa’s maize stock was estimated at 3.4 million tonnes in May 2018, up by 35 percent from the corresponding period last year due to a large opening stock at the start of the season.
