Key wheat importers in sub-Saharan African region

• Yesterday we indicated that sub-Saharan Africa’s 2017/18 wheat imports could reach 26 million tonnes, up by 18 percent from the previous season. What we didn’t mention is that the leading wheat importers within the sub-Saharan African region are Nigeria, Sudan, South Africa, Kenya, Ethiopia and Côte d’Ivoire, with imports estimated at 5.1 million tonnes, 2.5 million tonnes, 1.9 million tonnes, 1.7 million tonnes, 1.3 million tonnes and 700 000 tonnes, respectively (see Chart below).
• In the case of South Africa, the 2017/18 marketing year’s wheat imports currently stand at 1.2 million tonnes, which equates to 63 percent of the seasonal import forecast of 1.9 million tonnes. In the past few weeks, however, the imports were sluggish. The last consignment was received on the week ending 16 March 2018.
• The slow import activity was either partially influenced by the delays in wheat tariff adjustments or mainly weak demand, or both. The wheat import tariff which triggered on 13 February 2018 to R394.85 per tonne, which is a 45 percent decline from the previous rate of R716.33 per tonne, but was only published on the Government Gazette to make it official on 06 April 2018.
• The week ending 13 April 2018 was the first with the tariff at the new rate of R394.85 per tonne. SAGIS will release the weekly trade data for this particular week at midday, which should give us a sense of whether a relatively lower import tariff will stimulate imports or could remain sluggish for some time.

Chart: Key wheat importers in sub-Saharan African region

Source: USDA, IGC, Agbiz Research   

Full report by Wandile Sihlobo attached below:

Agbiz Morning Market Viewpoint on Agri-Commodities 17 April 2018