Recent showers in the Western Cape bode well for the new season crop

• In the past couple of weeks, our writing on the wheat market largely focused on the Western Cape province for two basic reasons. Firstly, the Western Cape is a leading producer of winter wheat in South Africa, accounting for 64 percent of the intended area of 500 500 hectares in the 2018/19 production season. Secondly, the province experienced severe drought in the past couple of months, which partially explains the growing interest on the province’s weather developments, particularly at this period in the season where the crop is at its early growing stages that require moisture
• At the beginning of the season, the rainfall was not evenly distributed in the Western Cape province. The areas around Swartland and Overberg regions received more rainfall compared to the Southern Cape regions, which largely explains the differences in crop conditions.
• Fortunately, the recent assessment shows improvement across all areas, although a large share of the crop in the Southern Cape still needs more rainfall to recover. Over the weekend, parts of the Western Cape province received higher rainfall, which should not only benefit crops but also improve dam levels. The Western Cape provincial dam levels averaged 36 percent in the week of 25 June 2018, up by 2 percentage points from the previous week and 13 percentage points from the corresponding period last year. Tomorrow we will receive an update for the week of 02 July 2018, which should show a notable improvement. Furthermore, the weather forecast for the week shows a likelihood of widespread showers over the province, which could further improve soil moisture and subsequently benefit winter wheat crop.
• The second largest wheat producing province is the Free State, accounting for 19 percent of the aforementioned area of 500 500 hectares. The province’s crop is produced in both dryland and irrigation areas, which means improved soil moisture and dam levels following last summer’s good rainfall will benefit the crop.

Click HERE to read the full report by Wandile Sihlobo