SA Agricultural Market Viewpoint 25 March 2019

The situation in Mozambique is devastating. Tropical Cyclone Idai, which hit the coastline of Mozambique on 14 March has caused a heavy loss of lives and affected many people. One of the key concerns over the coming days will be food insecurity, due to damage to both crop fields and port infrastructure.
Mozambique is generally a net importer of major grains, such as maize, wheat and rice, although a smaller volume in maize. In a normal season, the country imports roughly 100 000 tonnes of maize, 700 000 tonnes of rice, and 680 000 tonnes of wheat to fulfil its domestic needs. Given that the production of rice and wheat is relatively negligible, the current weather-induced devastation will not lead to meaningful changes in import requirements of these commodities, but maize imports will most likely increase.
SAGIS monthly data which is due for release this week will present South Africa’s grain and oilseed usage, trade, and stocks data for February 2019.
On 26 March 2019, the Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) will release its second production estimates for maize (white and yellow), sunflower seed, soybeans, groundnuts, sorghum and dry beans. We expect a downward revision in maize and sunflower seed production estimate due to unfavourable weather conditions in the western parts of the country.