South African Agricultural Commodities Weekly Wrap

• The producer deliveries data for 2017/18 summer grains and oilseeds, particularly maize, soybeans and sunflower seed, show that South Africa will have sufficient supplies until the first quarter of 2019.
• Hence, the focus in the market is somewhat shifting towards the 2018/19 production season which commences next month. On that end, the weather forecasters are predicting a possibility of another El Niño event, which could negatively affect the new season crop if it materialises.
• It is still unclear whether South African farmers will reduce the intentions to plant because of the forecast El Niño. However, we will have a better indication when the Crop Estimate Committee releases its estimates on October 25.
• From a winter crop perspective, this has been one of the good seasons following a drought year in the Western Cape that led to a double-digit decline in 2017/18 wheat production.
• The SAFEX beef carcass market experienced a quiet week with prices unchanged from levels seen last week. In terms of the supply, the South African farmers slaughtered 212 060 head of cattle in July 2018, down by a percentage point from July 2017 due to the herd rebuilding process after a reduction during the 2015-16 drought.

Looking ahead, the data calendar for next week is fairly light with no major releases.

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