Good Rain, Good Start of the Planting Season

• South Africa’s summer crops could have a good start of the season as the weather forecasts for the next two weeks show prospects of rainfall over most parts of the country. Admittedly, while this is a welcome development, it also means that planting activity in some areas could be slightly delayed. But this is not much of an issue as the planting window for most crops will remain open until December 2018, particularly white maize and sunflower seed in the western parts of South Africa.
• So, while numerous factors such as the ZAR/USD exchange and the Chicago grain and oilseed price movements could influence the SAFEX grain and oilseed prices, we believe that the weather will be an important driver of prices within the next four months or so, specifically the new season contracts.
• In today’s morning note, we explore the potential impact of the weather outlook per crop, but also comment on the recent data releases, with a key focus on SAGIS month figures. The SAGIS monthly data is important for a number of reasons, with the key one being the fact that it presents the monthly consumption figures and also current stock or inventories.

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Sourced: Agbiz, Agribusiness Research