Spotlight on Maize Market

Arithmus — Mon, 15 Oct 2018 07:59:14 +0000

The recently released United States Department of Agriculture (USDA)’s monthly report could be the key driver of the global maize market today. The agency placed its 2018/19 global maize production estimate at 1.07 billion tonnes, up by 3 percent from the previous season. This is in line with the International Grains Council estimate for the corresponding period.
The US, Brazil, Argentina, Ukraine and China are amongst the key countries underpinning the expected large global maize harvest. This has overshadowed the possible decline in production in other major maize producing countries such as the EU, India and South Africa.
Zooming into South Africa, the USDA left its estimate for the country’s 2018/19 commercial and non-commercial maize production unchanged from September 2018, at 13.0 million tonnes. This is about 3 percent lower than the previous season’s harvest, but well above the long-term average production. Nonetheless, this is well above the International Grains Council’s estimate of 12.3 million tonnes for the corresponding period due to a variation in yield expectations.
Be that as it may, the planting activity has not yet commenced in many provinces, the aforementioned estimates are partly based on historical data. Key to look out for going forward is the ‘intentions of farmers’ to plant figure which will be released on 25 October by the Crop estimate Committee, as well as the weather outlook given the prospects of an El Niño later in the summer season
Aside from the aforementioned weather developments, the dam levels have improved significantly in the Western Cape province, thanks to the recent rainfall (see Figure 1 below).

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Sourced: Agbiz Morning Market Viewpoint on Agri-Commodities

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Spotlight on maize market

Arithmus — Wed, 17 Oct 2018 08:29:35 +0000

The weather remains an important factor in the US maize market, as it could still influence the harvest process, as well as the crop quality/conditions. The forecast for the next two weeks shows the prospects of rainfall over the eastern parts of the Midwest, while other areas set to experience cool and drier weather conditions. Therefore, the potential delays in the harvest process will not be widespread but concentrated on a few patches.
As a result, next week’s harvest pace assessment could show a bit of an uptick from levels observed in the week of 14 October 2018, where 39 percent of the US maize crop had already been harvested. This is good progress, about 12 percent ahead of the corresponding period last year.
The crop conditions assessment could show similar results as the week of 14 October 2018, where 68 percent of the US maize crop was rated good or excellent. This was about 3 percentage points better than the corresponding period last year.
We place more emphasis on the US because of its importance in global maize supplies. The US 2018/19 maize production is estimated at 375 million tonnes, up by a percentage point from the previous week. This accounts for 35 percent of expected 2018/19 global maize production.
The weather is a key focus also in the domestic maize market as the 2018/19 planting season has recently started. The past couple of days brought widespread rainfall in the eastern and central parts of South Africa, which bodes well for the new season crop. The outlook for the next eight days promises additional showers over the eastern parts of the country which will lead to further improvement. The elephant in the room, however, is the forecast El Niño, which might negatively affect crop conditions later in the season.

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Sourced: Agbiz Morning Market Viewpoint on Agri-Commodities

The post Spotlight on maize market appeared first on Agri Limpopo.

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Spotlight on Maize Market

Spotlight on maize market