Spotlight on maize market

Arithmus — Wed, 17 Oct 2018 08:29:35 +0000

The weather remains an important factor in the US maize market, as it could still influence the harvest process, as well as the crop quality/conditions. The forecast for the next two weeks shows the prospects of rainfall over the eastern parts of the Midwest, while other areas set to experience cool and drier weather conditions. Therefore, the potential delays in the harvest process will not be widespread but concentrated on a few patches.
As a result, next week’s harvest pace assessment could show a bit of an uptick from levels observed in the week of 14 October 2018, where 39 percent of the US maize crop had already been harvested. This is good progress, about 12 percent ahead of the corresponding period last year.
The crop conditions assessment could show similar results as the week of 14 October 2018, where 68 percent of the US maize crop was rated good or excellent. This was about 3 percentage points better than the corresponding period last year.
We place more emphasis on the US because of its importance in global maize supplies. The US 2018/19 maize production is estimated at 375 million tonnes, up by a percentage point from the previous week. This accounts for 35 percent of expected 2018/19 global maize production.
The weather is a key focus also in the domestic maize market as the 2018/19 planting season has recently started. The past couple of days brought widespread rainfall in the eastern and central parts of South Africa, which bodes well for the new season crop. The outlook for the next eight days promises additional showers over the eastern parts of the country which will lead to further improvement. The elephant in the room, however, is the forecast El Niño, which might negatively affect crop conditions later in the season.

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Sourced: Agbiz Morning Market Viewpoint on Agri-Commodities

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The winter wheat harvest process is slowly gaining momentum in the Western Cape

Arithmus — Thu, 01 Nov 2018 06:48:30 +0000

The winter wheat harvest process is slowly gaining momentum in the Western Cape. The most recent data from SAGIS shows that 78 731 tonnes of wheat were delivered to commercial silos in the week of 26 October 2018, well above the initial deliveries of 7 716 tonnes.
While some areas of the province received light showers at the start of the week, which somewhat slowed the harvest process, there has now been an improvement. The weather conditions were generally favourable yesterday and some farmers have resumed the harvest process. Looking ahead, the weather forecast for the next two weeks shows clear skies with scattered clouds over most parts of the Western Cape, which means the harvest process could continue with interruptions in some areas.
We place more emphasis on this particular province, not only because the crop matured earlier than other provinces due to differences in planting dates, but because of its share contribution to South African wheat production. The province accounts for 49 percent of the estimated 1.86 million tonnes in the 2018/19 production season. Most importantly, the province’s wheat production is up by 54 percent from the 2017/18 season. This is due to favourable weather conditions which have led to fairly higher yields in most areas, not the expansion in the area. In fact, the area planted this season down marginally from the 2017/18.
This optimism does not only end within the Western Cape, but the crop growing conditions are also favourable in provinces such as the Northern Cape, Free State, Eastern Cape and Limpopo, amongst others – all thanks to recent showers and improved water levels in the dams for irrigation following good summer and winter rainfall. Above all, if the aforementioned harvest projection of 1.86 million tonnes materialises, South Africa’s wheat imports could fall by a third from last year’s volume to 1.4 million tonnes in the 2018/19 marketing year.

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Sourced: Agbiz, Agribusiness Research

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crop conditions – Agri Limpopo

Spotlight on maize market

The winter wheat harvest process is slowly gaining momentum in the Western Cape