Africa remained South Africa’s largest market, accounting for 44% of agricultural exports – which is 9% below the 5-year average share. The EU accounted for 26% of South Africa’s agricultural exports in 2016, with Asia taking up 22%. Americas and the rest of the world (ROW) accounted for 5% and 3%, respectively.

Despite the worst drought in more than a decade, the South Africa’s agricultural sector recorded a positive trade balance of US$2.3 billion in 2016. This was boosted by growth in exports of edible fruits, beverages, spirits and vegetables, with the total agricultural export value amounting to US$8.6 billion, up 6% from 2015. These products are mainly grown in the Western Cape province, which was not as severely affected by the 2016 drought as the rest of the country. Meanwhile, imports also increased by 26% y/y reaching US$6.3 billion – driven by a notable uptick in grain imports on the back of the drought.

Looking ahead – Given the recovery in agricultural production, we expect the South African agricultural trade balance to remain positive in 2017. This will essentially support the country’s current account. 

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The season is just kicking off in the warmer areas of Limpopo Province like Mooketsi and Levubu with Fuerte and Maluma, and the very first export consignments have left to reach the market in week 12. Early South African exports are primarily Fuerte. The South African harvest will get underway in all earnest by the beginning of March.

Source: Fresh Plaza

The post The South African avocado season starts and harvests are ready appeared first on Agri Limpopo.

Maize:

The weather conditions could remain favourable throughout the production season. The medium-term forecasts promise above average rainfall within the next two months across the maize belt, which should further improve soil moisture and benefit the crop.

From the data front, today the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) will release its monthly update of the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. Last month, the agency placed South Africa’s 2017/18 maize production estimate at 12.5 million tonnes (commercial and non-commercial maize production.), down from last season’s record harvest of 17.5 million tonnes.

While the focus is on the new production season, some farmers continue to deliver old season maize to commercial silos. The total maize deliveries were reported at 4 241 tonnes in the week ending 02 March 2018, well below the previous week’s deliveries of 24 593 tonnes. About 61% of this was white maize, with 39% being yellow maize. Overall, South Africa’s 2017/18 marketing year’s total maize deliveries for “week 1 to 44” currently stand at 15.3 million tonnes. Of this total, 60% is white maize with 40% being yellow maize.

Wheat:

The volumes of wheat recently delivered to commercial silos declined significantly from levels seen the previous weeks. This mirrors the reduction in activity in the farms after the completion of the harvest process .

About 2 848 tonnes of wheat were delivered to commercial silos in the week ending 02 March 2018. This is four-fold lower than the volume delivered the previous week, and well below the volumes delivered in the previous months when the harvest process was at its peak. Overall, this placed South Africa’s winter wheat producer deliveries for “week 1 to 22” of the 2017/18 marketing year at 1.44 million tonnes.

On the global front – Making headlines yesterday was the intergovernmental contract between Iran and Russia, which could potentially lead to about 1.5 million tonnes of wheat exports to Iran in the coming years. This will be an important market for Russia as the country continues to see a solid increase in domestic wheat production.

In its February report, the USDA placed Russia’s 2017/18 wheat production at 85 million tonnes, up by 17% from the previous season owing to an increase in area planted, as well as expected higher yields. This is a notable contribution to global supplies, making up a share of 11%.

Soybeans:

The expected rainfall has not yet materialised in most soybean growing areas of the country. The only areas that received light showers on Tuesday evening were Bethlehem, Fouriesburg, Heilbron, Harrismith, Lindley, Ventersburg, Senekal, Morgenzon and Vereeniging.

Nevertheless, this is not much of a concern as soybean growing areas of South Africa still have a fair amount of soil moisture from rainfall received in the past few weeks. Moreover, the forecast rainfall within the next two weeks is in line with the South African Weather Service’s expectations of above normal rainfall within the next two months across the summer crop growing areas of the country.

In global markets – The global soybean demand remains solid, underpinned by strong demand from China. The USDA recently reported a sale of 120 000 tonnes of US soybean to China. As highlighted in our previous note, China National Grain and Oils Information Centre forecasts the country 2017/18 soybean imports at 96 million tonnes, slightly below the USDA’s estimate of 97 million tonnes.

RSA Potatoes:

The potatoes market lost ground in yesterday’s trade session owing to a large stock of 739 972 tonnes at the start of the session. The price was down by 6% from the previous day, closing at R34.95 per pocket (10kg).

In the session, the market saw an uptick in deliveries owing to ongoing harvest activity in most parts of the country. This led to a 12% increase in daily stocks to 831 606 pockets (10kg bag).

RSA fruit:

The fruit market recorded widespread losses in yesterday’s trade session. The prices of apples and bananas were down by 1% and 3% from the previous day, closing at R8.21 and R7.03 per kilogram. These losses were mainly due to large stocks of 176 000 tonnes of apples and 210 000 tonnes of bananas.

The price of oranges declined by 4% from the previous day and settled at R4.63 per kilogram. This was also pressured by a recovery in stocks to 61 000 tonnes, from levels of below 30 000 tonnes in the past few days.

Full report attached below

Agbiz Morning Market Viewpoint on Agri-Commodities 08 March 2018

The post Weather could remain favourable through maize production season appeared first on Agri Limpopo.

Maize:

The new season maize crop is generally in good condition following recent rainfall in most parts of the country. Looking ahead, the weather forecast for the next two weeks promises a possibility of over 50 millimetres of rainfall across the maize belt which should further improve soil moisture and therefore benefit the crop.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) revised its estimate for South Africa’s 2017/18 maize production up by 4% from last month to 13.0 million tonnes. This is, however, lower than the previous season’s harvest of 17.5 million tonnes due to a decline in area planted and expected lower yields in some areas.

Also worth highlighting is that the USDA estimate covers both commercial and non-commercial maize production, while the National Crop Estimates Committee’s (CEC) estimates only covers commercial production.

The CEC forecasts South Africa’s 2017/18 maize production at 12.2 million tonnes. While not directly comparable to the USDA estimate because of the aforementioned reasons, it is 6% lower than the USDA’s estimates.

Wheat:

With South Africa being a net importer of wheat, the major developments in the global market tend to influence the domestic environment. Friday’s session was no different, the spot price was under pressure due to a decline in Chicago wheat prices.

The global wheat prices were underpinned by a slight upward revision in 2017/18 global wheat production. The USDA forecasts the global crop at 759 million tonnes, which is now 3% higher than the 2016/17 harvest due to an uptick in wheat production in Russia and India.

The USDA forecasts Russia’s 2017/18 wheat production at 85 million tonnes, up by 39% from the previous season owing to an increase in area planted, as well as higher yields. In the same season, India’s wheat production is estimated at 98 million tonnes, up by 14% from the previous season. This somewhat compensated the decline in output in other key wheat producing countries such as the United States, Australia and Canada. Moreover, the 2017/18 global wheat ending stock was revised up by a percentage point from February 2019 to 269 million tonnes. This is 11% higher than the previous season.

From a demand perspective, the 2017/18 global wheat imports are estimated at 182 million tonnes, slightly higher than the previous month’s estimate of 180 million tonnes and 7% higher than the previous season. Southeast Asia, Middle East and North Africa regions are set to be amongst the key importers.

Sub-Saharan Africa is also amongst the key wheat importing regions with 2017/18 wheat imports estimated at 23 million tonnes, up by 7% from the previous season. The leading buyers within this region are Nigeria, Sudan, South Africa and Kenya.

Soybeans:

The areas around Bethlehem, Fouriesburg, Heilbron, Harrismith, Lindley, Ventersburg, Senekal, Morgenzon, Vereeniging, Balfour, Bethal, Davel, Delmas, Greyling Stad, Kriel, Leandra, Nigel and Standerton received light showers towards the end of last week which is conducive for the soybean crop. The crop is generally in good condition across the country and should benefit from expected rainfall with the next two weeks.

In global markets – The USDA revised its 2017/18 global soybean production estimates down by 2% from February 2018 to 341 million tonnes this month. This is 3% lower than the previous season due to expected lower yields in Argentina and Paraguay.

Argentina’s 2017/18 soybean production was revised down by 13% from the February 2018 to 47 million tonnes. This is 19% decline from the previous season. The drier weather conditions that were experienced in the past few weeks across the country led to lower yields, thus leading to a reduction in production.

Contrary to Argentinian developments, Brazil’s 2017/18 soybean production estimate was revised up further by 1% from the previous month to 113 million tonnes. This is now just 1% lower than the 2016/17 harvest. The upward revision is mainly on the back of higher yields in most areas. The production estimates for other key soybean producing countries such as the US and China was left unchanged from the previous month at 120 million and 14 million tonnes, respectively.

Sunflower seed:

The weather remains a key focus across sunflower seed growing areas as the crop is still at its early stages of development that requires moisture. The sunflower seed crops experienced dry and cool weather conditions for the most part of last week. This is with the exception of areas around Hertzogville, Hoopstad, Orkney, Viljoenskroon, Derby, Bothaville, Losdoorns, Viljoenskroon, Wesselsbron, Delareyville and Ventersdorp which received light showers. These were however not sufficient to notably improve soil moisture.

With that said, the expected rainfall of over 50 millimetres across the sunflower seed growing areas within the next two weeks could meaningfully improve soil moisture and therefore benefit the crop. The medium-term forecast promises above normal rainfall in summer crop growing areas between this month and May 2018 .

In the global market – The USDA forecasts 2017/18 global sunflower seed production at 46 million tonnes, down by 3% from the previous season. This is due to lower yields in parts of Russia and Ukraine. Meanwhile, Argentina, Turkey and the European Union registered an uptick in production.

RSA Potatoes:

The potatoes market lost ground in yesterday’s trade session owing to a large stock of 902 788 tonnes at the start of the session. The price was down by 3% from the previous day, closing at R34.44 per pocket (10kg).

In the session, the market saw an uptick in deliveries owing to ongoing harvest activity in most parts of the country. This led to a 4% increase in daily stocks to 934 899 pockets (10kg bag).

RSA fruit:

The fruit market ended the day mixed in Friday’s trade session. The prices of bananas and oranges were up by 7% and 31% from the previous day, closing at R7.49 and R6.05 per kilogram. These gains were underpinned by lower stocks of 175 000 tonnes of bananas and 38 000 tonnes of oranges.

Meanwhile, the price of apples declined by 4% from the previous day and settled at R7.91 per kilogram. This was pressured by a 24% uptick in daily stock to 219 000 tonnes.

Full report attached below.

Agbiz Morning Market Viewpoint on Agri-Commodities 12 March 2018

The post New season maize crop in good condition following recent rainfall appeared first on Agri Limpopo.

The weather remains a key focus in the domestic maize market as the crop is still at its growing stages. The soil moisture has generally improved across the maize belt following rainfall in the past few weeks. But, follow up rainfall is needed given that the crop has been moisture-stressed in the western parts of the country following dryness in the past few days.

Fortunately, the near term weather forecasts show signs of good rainfall across the maize belt within the next two weeks. If this materialises, the maize crop will remain in good shape, which increases a chance of good yields this season .

While the focus is on the new production season, some farmers continue to deliver old season maize to commercial silos. The total maize deliveries were reported at 13 287 tonnes in the week ending 09 March 2018, well above the previous week’s deliveries of 13 287 tonnes. About 60 percent of this was yellow maize, with 40 percent being white maize. Overall, South Africa’s 2017/18 marketing year’s total maize deliveries for “week 1 to 45” currently stand at 15.39 million tonnes. Of this total, 59 percent is white maize with 41 percent being yellow maize.

Wheat:

Although the winter wheat growing season will only start in the next two months or so, the recent developments on the Western Cape weather front are worth highlighting. The weather charts currently show a possibility of light rainfall within the next two weeks across the coastal areas of the province.

This is a welcome development following weeks of dryness, but will not make a meaningful improvement on dam levels which are critically low, estimated at 20 percent in the week of 12 March 2018, unchanged from the previous week, but down by 9 percentage points from the corresponding period last year.

The volumes of wheat recently delivered to commercial silos declined significantly from levels seen the previous weeks. This mirrors the reduction in activity in the farms after the completion of the harvest process .

About 3 519 tonnes of wheat were delivered to commercial silos in the week ending 09 March 2018. This is up by 24 percent from the volume delivered the previous week, but well below the volumes delivered in the previous months when the harvest process was at its peak. Overall, this placed South Africa’s winter wheat producer deliveries for “week 1 to 23” of the 2017/18 marketing year at 1.46 million tonnes.

Soybeans:

This week the soybean growing areas were dry and cool so far, with light showers on Tuesday night only which were concentrated in areas around Lydenburg, Middelburg, Morgenzon, Witbank and Wonderfontein. With that said, this is not a greater concern as there is still a fair amount of soil moisture.

Moreover, the next two weeks promise the possibility of good rainfall which should further improve soil moisture. As noted in yesterday’s note, these weather developments support the Crop Estimates Committee’s view of a new record level of 1.4 million tonnes this season, up by 5 percent from the 2016/17 production season.

In global markets – There is speculation in the market that China’s soybean demand could partially shift from the US to South America owing to the recent political developments regarding US trade policy. China is the world’s leading importer of soybeans with a share of 64% in 2017/18 global soybean imports of 151 million tonnes.

In the past five years, the US has been one of the key suppliers of soybeans to China accounting for nearly 40% share of that market, according to data from Trade Map. Brazil and Argentina were amongst the key suppliers, hence the talks in the market point to a possible increase in South America’s share at the expense of the US in the Chinese soybean market over the coming years.

Sunflower seed:

The expected rainfall has not yet materialised in most areas of the country. Although not an immediate concern, it is worth noting that some crops in the western parts of the North West and Free State provinces are slightly moisture-stressed and urgently need rainfall.

There is hope however that the expected rainfall within the next eight days could offer a bit of relief. Fortunately, the medium-term forecasts promise a possibility of above normal rainfall in summer crop growing areas of South Africa between this month and May 2018 which should provide sufficient moisture for crop development throughout the season .

In the global market – The warm weather conditions in Argentina which have been disrupting the soybean crops have had a slightly positive impact on sunflowers, not by increasing yields but boosting the harvest process. Data from SUNSEEDMAN shows that on 14 March 2018, about 50% of this season’s Argentinian sunflower seed crop had already been harvested. The USDA forecasts the country’s 2017/18 sunflower seed crop at 3.6 million tonnes, up by 6 percent year-on-year.

RSA Potatoes:

After experiencing a good run at the start of the week, the potatoes market pulled back in yesterday’s trade session and settled in negative territory due to a large stock of 780 197 pockets (10kg bag) at the start of the session. The price was up by 9 percent from the previous day, closing at R32.40 per pocket (10kg).

In yesterday’s trading session, the market saw an uptick in deliveries on the back of ongoing harvest activity. This led to a 24 percent increase in daily stocks to 970 516 pockets (10kg bag).

RSA fruit:

The fruit market has been quite wobbly this week. The gains that were seen at the start of the week were again shaved off in yesterday’s session due to an uptick in daily stock levels. The prices of apples and bananas were down by down by 15 percent and 6 percent from the previous day, closing at R6.91 and R7.58 per kilogram, respectively.

Surprisingly, the price of oranges experienced extended losses of 17 percent from the previous day and settled at R4.54 per kilogram. We maintain that this will be short-lived because of fairly lower stock of 64 000 tonnes, compared to levels of over 70 000 tonnes in the past few days.

Full report by Wandile Sihlobo available below.

Agbiz Morning Market Viewpoint on Agri-Commodities 15 March 2018

The post Signs of good rainfall across maize belt within next two weeks appeared first on Agri Limpopo.

Maize:

The weekend didn’t bring much improvement in soil moisture, the rainfall was quite scattered in a few areas, but mostly in regions of Mpumalanga and eastern Free State provinces. With that said, the maize crop that is currently moisture-stressed following last week’s dryness could soon receive relief as weather forecasts show a possibility of over 60 millimetres of rainfall within the next eight days.

Worth noting, but of lesser significance to the global market, is the effect of pest and diseases which continue to affect crops in the region. The recent report from the  Mozambican government suggests that more than 3 000 hectares of maize plantings have been affected by disease and pest infestations. 

In 2016/17 production season, Mozambique produced 2.0 million tonnes of maize up by 12 percent from the previous season. However, this was slightly below the annual maize consumption of 2.2 million tonnes, and this means that the country will resort to imports to boost supplies. At this point, it is unclear what the 2017/18 maize harvest will be, but reports of crop damage increase a chance of a decline in maize harvest. This could potentially increase Mozambique’s reliance on maize supplies in countries such as South Africa and Zambia.

Wheat:

Yesterday there was no new news in the local wheat market. The weather is not a main focus at the moment as it is an off-season period, but in the next two months or so, the weather will again take the spotlight ahead of the winter wheat planting season.

In provinces such as the Western Cape, soil moisture has not improved as there hasn’t been any meaningful rainfall in months. The weather forecasts for the next two weeks show a possibility of light showers along the coastal areas of the province in the week of 04 April 2018. This will however not lead to any improvement in soil moisture. Above all, it is unclear what the weather conditions will look like in the upcoming season.

Apart from the domestic development, Russia plans to increase its presence in the global wheat market. The country’s Ministry of Agriculture forecasts 2017/18 grain exports at 52 million tonnes, which is a 44 percent uptick from the previous season. About 71 percent of the expected exports is wheat, which is unsurprising following a notable increase in production this season.

Soybeans:

Some soybean growing areas of the country experienced light and scattered showers during the weekend. However, areas around Bethlehem, Frankfort, Kroonstad, Lindley, Ventersburg, Vrede, Warden, Balfour, Davel, Greyling Stad, Irene, Leandra, Lydenburg, Standerton and Vereeniging received rainfall of over 20 millimetres over the weekend. This bodes well for soybean crop as it is still at growing stages that require moisture.

This week promises heavy rainfall across the soybean growing areas of the country. Although unusual at this time of the season, hail remains a concern for the eastern parts of the country when there are expectations of heavy rainfall. The past few weeks brought a bit of hail in some regions of Mpumalanga and KwaZulu Natal province, but the crop damage was limited.

The soybean crop is generally in good condition and if there are no crop damages in the coming weeks, the country will stand a good chance of achieving the National Crop Estimates Committee’s estimate of a new record harvest of 1.4 million tonnes this season, up by 5 percent from the 2016/17 production season.

It is also worth noting that South Africa remains a net importer of soybean oil-cake (meal), but the volumes imported have declined from levels of close to a million tonnes in 2010. Last year, South Africa imported 553 003 tonnes of soybean oilcake, down by 15 percent from volumes imported in 2016. This decline was partly linked to improvement in soybean production in the 2016/17 production season, where the soybean harvest reached a record level of 1.3 million tonnes.

Argentina was a leading supplier with a share of 88 percent of total imports. Zambia, Malawi and the Netherlands were also amongst the key suppliers of oilcake to South Africa, according to data from Trade Map. 

RSA Potatoes:

After experiencing a good run in the past few days, the potatoes market pulled back in yesterday’s trade session owing to a large stock of 1.2 million pockets (10kg bag) at the start of the session. The price was down by 7 percent from the previous day, closing at R28.16 per pocket (10kg).

However, towards the end of the session, the market experienced strong commercial buying interest, coupled with relatively lower deliveries on the back of slow harvest activity during the weekend. This subsequently led to a 33 percent decline in daily stocks to 808 418 pockets (10kg bag).

RSA fruit:

The fruit market was under pressure in yesterday’s trade session owing to commercial selling, as well as large stocks. The prices of apples and bananas were down by 11 percent and 15 percent from the previous day, closing at R7.24 and R6.09 per kilogram, respectively. This was mainly on the back of large stocks of 179 000 tonnes of apples and 326 000 tonnes of bananas.

The price of oranges declined by 28 percent from the previous day and settled at R3.97 per kilogram due to commercial selling. With that said, we believe that these losses could be short-lived because of fairly lower stock of 53 000 tonnes, compared to levels of over 70 000 tonnes in the past few days.

Find full report attached to this e-mail.

Agbiz Morning Market Viewpoint on Agri-Commodities 20 March 2018

The post Maize crop could receive 60 millimetres of rainfall within next eight days appeared first on Agri Limpopo.

Read the full report by Wandile Sihlobo below:

South African Agricultural Commodities Weekly Wrap 04 May 2018

The post South African Agricultural Commodities Weekly Wrap appeared first on Agri Limpopo.

Read full report by Wandile Sihlobo below:

Agbiz Morning Market Viewpoint on Agri-Commodities 09 May 2018

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