farm – Agri Limpopo

40 000 jobs lost in SA agriculture.

Arithmus — Tue, 08 Aug 2017 07:42:23 +0000

After cutting 44 000 jobs in the first quarter of 2017, South Africa’s agricultural sector saw a further 40 000 jobs lost in the second quarter – putting the total labour force at 835 000 jobs.

However, it is worth noting that this is in line with the season’s trend due to reduced horticultural activity in the second quarter.

Taking a closer look at the provincial decomposition, it is clear that most job losses occurred in the Northern Cape, Western Cape, KwaZulu Natal and Gauteng provinces where the bulk of labour intensive crops are grown. Meanwhile, other provinces saw slight job gains.

In terms of sub-sector performance – The reduction in employment were in field crops and horticulture, forestry and aquaculture. Meanwhile, the other sub-sectors, such as the livestock, game farming, as well as mixed farming showed job gains.

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Agri SA Media Release: Benefactor pays with his life

Deidre Carter — Tue, 06 Mar 2018 06:44:52 +0000

5 March 2018

A well-known farmer, benefactor and community leader, Dirk Steenkamp, was murdered early Sunday morning on his farm in the Vredefort district. “Murders and other violent crime afflicting the farming community bear testimony to the serious shortcomings in people’s values and lack of respect for life,” said Agri SA president Dan Kriek.

Steenkamp was known in the community as a benefactor who never hesitated to help people in need. The murder once again highlighted the senselessness and cowardliness of such deeds, as well as the vulnerability of farmers and farm workers who perform their work outdoors in the interest of the country. The murder has enraged and caused immeasurable heartache to his family, farm workers and the community. Kriek, on behalf of Agri SA, expressed his condolences to the Steenkamp family and called on the police to arrest the attackers as soon as possible.

“The irresponsible and reckless utterances around the land issue that are regularly reported in the media lead to the polarisation of people and communities, and incite violence aimed at a certain group of society. These types of statements do not belong in a society where mutual respect and tolerance are essential for nation-building and stability,” said Kriek.

Kriek added that “unqualified statements on land are catastrophic for agricultural development and further investment in agriculture, especially since they are based on unfounded and incorrect assumptions. Such utterances could be interpreted by certain individuals as justification for attacking and murdering members of the farming community.”

“We believe there is still sufficient commitment within government to the principles of the Constitution to make sure that agriculture maintains its rightful place in the economy, to create jobs and to ensure that the sector can adhere to the principle of food security,” said Kriek.

Kriek called on agricultural communities to support their local security structures and to work with the police within community context to improve their own safety. However, no protection measure serves as a guarantee that a farm attack will not take place, but it could delay an attack and give residents a chance to take emergency measures.

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South African tractor sales for March 2018 up 41% y/y

Arithmus — Thu, 12 Apr 2018 13:30:40 +0000

The South African tractor sales were up by 41% y/y in March 2018, with 726 units sold. This follows a 12% y/y contraction in February. On average, 23 tractors were sold a day last month compared to 21 tractors in February 2018 and 16 tractors a day in March 2017. Given that this is a fairly quiet period in the fields (in both summer and winter crop growing areas), the private sales were expected to have followed a normal trend, but the overall boost could be linked to government tenders ahead of the end of the financial year. The combine harvester sales were also solid, recorded a 9% y/y uptick, with 25 units sold.

The 25% y/y increase in March 2018 tractor sales came as a surprise as this is a fairly quiet period in the fields across the country. According to the South African Agricultural Machinery Association, the uptick in sales was boosted by government tenders. Therefore, we believe there will be some correction in April and sales will probably decline to levels around 441 units. Also worth noting is that March 2018 sales were the record highest for the corresponding month, in a dataset starting from 2014.
The combine harvester sales continued on a positive footing, with 25 units sold in March 2018, which is the highest figure in 15-months. This was partly supported by both the fairly stronger domestic currency, as well as expectations of a good summer grain and oilseed harvest of 14.8 million tonnes (this is down by 23% from the previous season, but better than market expectations at the start of the year).
Looking ahead, we maintain that tractor sales could see a slight downward trend over the next few months due to limited activity in the fields, as well as a bit of a correction after the government tenders. Meanwhile, the combine harvester sales could increase ahead of the summer grain harvest period.

Full report by Wandile Sihlobo available in the attachment below:

South African tractor sales for March 2018 up by 41% year on year

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Decline in cattle, sheep and pig slaughtering activity

Arithmus — Fri, 13 Apr 2018 08:25:08 +0000

The 2015-16 drought led to higher slaughtering activity in livestock industry (cattle, pigs and sheep) as farmers struggled to feed their stock amid higher feed costs, coupled with drier pastures. With the drought now behind us (with the exception of the Western Cape province), farmers have started rebuilding their herds. Moreover, the relatively lower maize and soybean prices, as well as a good recovery in pastures have provided a conducive environment for the livestock rebuilding process. This, however, has led to a decline in slaughtering activity in almost all the aforementioned sub sectors (see Chart below).
Data from the Red Meat Levy shows that cattle slaughtering activity softened by 5% month-on-month (m/m) and 11% year-on-year (y/y) in February 2018, with 185 262 head of cattle slaughtered. In the same month, sheep slaughtering activity declined by 10% m/m and 23% y/y, with 286 564 head of sheep. Moreover, pigs slaughtering also soften by 13% m/m and 3% y/y, with 208 118 head slaughtered.
Above all, these slaughtering dynamics partially explain why meat inflation remained stickier in 2017. This year’s meat price inflation will again partially be influenced by the path of this slaughtering activity. We will monitor the developments over the coming months in order to see if the current trend persists for longer or shows improvement, and thereafter ascertain the impact on prices.

Source: Red Meat Levy Admin, Agbiz Research

Full report by Wandile Sihlobo available in the attachment below:

South African Agricultural Commodities Weekly Wrap 13 April 2018

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Sub-Saharan Africa’s 2017/18 wheat imports up by 18% y/y

Arithmus — Mon, 16 Apr 2018 06:39:22 +0000

Drier and warm weather conditions have kept the US wheat on the back foot. On 08 April 2018, farmers had planted only 2 percent of the intended area for spring wheat, well below the area planted at the corresponding period last year, according to data from the USDA. These delays were mainly caused by persistent dryness in some States.
At the same time, the US winter wheat crop conditions were rated at 30 percent good/excellent, which is 23 percentage points lower than the same period last year. This too was largely due to persistent dryness in winter wheat growing areas. The USDA will release an update of US crop conditions later today. It is most likely that there is marginal progress from the aforementioned rates, as a large part of last week was mostly dry and cool in US wheat growing areas. The improvements could be seen if the expected rainfall this week materialises.
From a global perspective, the wheat market is well supplied. Last week, the USDA placed its 2017/18 global wheat production at 758 million tonnes, up by a percentage point from the previous season. At the same time, the ending stock was estimated at 271 million tonnes, up by 6 percent from the 2016/17 season.
This means that key wheat importing regions such as North Africa, Middle East and sub-Saharan Africa, amongst others, will be well supplied in the 2017/18 season, despite the decline in production in countries such as the US, Canada and Australia. The uptick in global supplies is boosted by a large harvest in Russia and India. The USDA forecasts sub-Saharan Africa’s 2017/18 wheat production at 26 million tonnes, up by 18 percent from the previous season. This equates to a 14 percent share of global wheat imports (see Chart below).

Chart: Global wheat imports

Source: USDA, Agbiz Research

Full article by Wandile Sihlobo in attatchment below:

Agbiz Morning Market Viewpoint on Agri-Commodities 16 April 2018

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Winter rainfall could be slightly delayed

Arithmus — Wed, 18 Apr 2018 07:50:46 +0000

It seems that the winter rainfall, which typically starts at the end April in the Western Cape province, could be slightly delayed. The weather charts have cleared across most parts of the province, with light showers expected within the next eight days to be mainly concentrated towards the coastal areas.
With that said, the weather forecasts for the week ending 03 May 2018 show a bit of improvement, with chances of between 16 and 20 millimetres of rainfall across the province. While a welcome development, this might not make a meaningful improvement in soil moisture. The province needs intense and continuous rainfall following the months of dryness.
Moreover, this means the provincial dam levels could remain at fairly lower levels for some time. In the week of 16 April 2018, the dams averaged 17 percent, fairly unchanged from the previous week, but 6 percentage points lower than the corresponding period last year (see Map below for dam levels).
Above all, the 2018 winter wheat production season could be better than last year. While rainfall could be delayed, there is a bit of optimism following the South African Weather Service view that parts of the south-western cape regions of the country could receive above-normal rainfall between the end of April and June 2018.
As set out last week, this rainfall will be critical for improving soil moisture content ahead of planting, which starts next month. Already, the USDA forecast South Africa’s 2018/19 wheat production at 1.65 million tonnes, up by 8 percent from the previous season.

Chart: South Africa’s average dam levels: week ended 16 April 2018, with the same week last year in brackets

Source: Department of Water and Sanitation and Agbiz Research

Full report by Wandile Sihlobo in attachment below:

Agbiz Morning Market Viewpoint on Agri-Commodities 18 April 2018

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Farmers can be a part of making a land reform project work

Arithmus — Thu, 19 Apr 2018 09:39:29 +0000

There has been a lot of writing on the land reform subject since December 2017 when the ruling party adopted the notion of expropriation without compensation. A number of analysts (ourselves included) warned of the unintended consequences of the aforementioned policy proposal. The abundance of thought-pieces on the negative outcomes of badly managed land acquisition programmes have not been matched by ideas of how to address them.

Having reflected on the possible unintended consequences of expropriation without compensation, it is worth re-looking at some of the existing proposals that were never fully tested, as a means to facilitate land redistribution.

These include the resolutions from the NAREG process, the High-Level panel report, Operation Phakisa, as well a variety of private sector and academic proposals, among others.

The current land policy proposal ascended from the frustration of perceived slow progress, albeit having shown in this piece that there has been progress if one views this process in terms of hectares moved from white farmers to black farmers (not the productivity of the land).

With that said, the ongoing land reform discussions provide a window of opportunity to share ideas on how we imagine the land reform process going forward. In other words, after having highlighted the unintended consequences of expropriation, one can also use this opportunity to share views on the best practice to acquire agricultural land for redistribution.

In June 2017, we argued that land reform processes should be more aligned with the ideas raised in chapter six of the National Development Plan as we believe it has more practical steps of effective land reform productively.

The National Development Plan suggested that the identification of transferable farms and beneficiaries should take place at a district level, facilitated by district land-reform committees that were established in 2015. Under the auspices of district committees, a tripartite joint venture approach on land reform will be established.

Farms for sale could be identified by the committee and a leading successful farmer can be appointed as mentor or co-investor to acquire new land with a qualified beneficiary. The beneficiary should be selected only by the land-reform committee to ensure a good working relationship.

In acquiring the farm, the state can contribute 30% of land value in grant money to the beneficiary. Another 30% can be a loan from the state-owned agricultural bank in the name of the beneficiary and farmer and the remaining 40% would be a cash contribution by other farmers in that particular district.

The contributing farmers would then be exempted from future land-reform claims and the farm could be operated via the farmers’ existing operation to ensure success.

A subsidised interest rate would need to be provided by the state-owned agricultural bank for the loan and backed by a state guarantee in the spirit of risk sharing.

If farmers in districts work together and get at least 30% of land in each district transferred to black farmers and thereafter utilised productively, then land expropriation without compensation would not be needed. Agribusinesses and commodity organisations would also have to provide post-transfer support and mentorship to new beneficiaries.

This can be done only if there is a fair and transparent beneficiary selection; grants and loans are disbursed fast; title deeds are transferred and registered speedily; the government shares in the risk of redistributing land and developing new farming operations, and there is policy stability.

One of the most enduring and fundamental factors in the land-reform debate is the trust deficit between the government and private sector. Trust needs to be built in order to ensure the success and sustainability of the land programme and the agricultural sector. DM

Wandile Sihlobo (@WandileSihlobo) and Tinashe Kapuya (@TinasheKapuya) are agricultural economists. Theo Boshoff is a land policy analyst.

Source: Daily Maverick

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Press Release: Urgent Action Needed Against Farm Attacks

Arithmus — Fri, 20 Apr 2018 09:59:50 +0000

Agri SA is voicing its concerns over the shocking increase in farm attacks and is requesting an urgent meeting with the newly appointed Minister of Police and the National Commissioner to discuss this issue of national importance. Farm attacks have increased by 22 per cent this year and murder by 27 per cent, and as reported 6 farm attacks have occurred in the past week.

“Several farmers and farm labourers were brutally assaulted and that is why we call on the farming community to further sharpen their vigilance. Within Agri SA and our provincial organisations we will do everything in our power to curb crime,” said Agri SA President Dan Kriek.

Agri SA has already approached the newly appointed Minister of Police as well as the National Commissioner to urgently discuss the ongoing farm violence and the impact thereof on farming communities. Aspects such as, finalising the revised Rural Protection Strategy as well as the reservist system will be subjects for discussion. A well-functioning reservist system that is accessible for members of the farming community forms the backbone to rural protection.

Agri SA remains committed to finding a solution in cooperation with established authority- and civil society structures. Even though there has been significant international interest on farm attacks, South African farmers do not seek assurance from abroad, but rather from their own government.

Farmworkers and farmers are highly valuable resources who are necessary to ensure food security and rural stability in South Africa. This is why they need to be properly protected to ensure there is food for the nation, something they manage to do extremely well.”

Queries

Dan Kriek (President)

082 944 0566

Kobus Visser (Head: Rural Safety)

082 388 0010

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Spotlight on SA wheat plantings

Arithmus — Wed, 25 Apr 2018 06:34:11 +0000

Although canola and oats farmers have started planting in parts of the Western Cape province and wheat set to commence soon, the germination process could be slightly delayed. The near-term weather forecast point to a continuous dryness in the Western Cape province within the next two weeks.
The weather forecast changed overnight. It currently shows clear skies across most parts of the province, therefore the view of possible light showers in the western parts of the province has changed. Moreover, this means the provincial dam levels could remain at fairly lower levels for some time. In the week of 23 April 2018, the dams averaged 16 percent, down by a percentage point from the previous week, and 6 percentage points from the corresponding period last year.
Above all, the upcoming production season promises to be better than the last. While rainfall could be delayed, there is a bit of optimism following the local Weather Service view that parts of the south-western cape regions of the country could receive above-normal rainfall between the end of between this month and June 2018 .
As set out yesterday, an important data point to keep an eye on today is the intentions-to-plant data which is due for release in the afternoon. Bloomberg analyst’s forecasts put South Africa’s 2018/19 winter wheat planting at 492 500 hectares, which is slightly above the previous season’s plantings of 492 500 hectares (see Chart below). Another key data is SAGIS monthly figures which will include wheat stock levels. Last month, South Africa’s wheat stocks were recorded at 1.5 million tonnes, which is 7 percent lower than the volumes recorded in February 2017.
From a trade front, there were no imports last week, and the last imports were in the week of 16 March 2018, recorded at 25 135 tonnes. This placed 2017/18 marketing year’s wheat imports at 1.2 million tonnes, which equates to 63 percent of the seasonal import forecast of 1.9 million tonnes.

Chart: South Africa’s wheat area plantings

Source: SAGIS, CEC, Agbiz Research

*Bloomberg’s analyst estimate

Full report by Wandile Sihlobo in the attachment below:

Agbiz Morning Market Viewpoint on Agri-Commodities 25 April 2018

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Spotlight on SA soybean production

Arithmus — Thu, 26 Apr 2018 07:21:50 +0000

The next eight days should remain cool and dry over the soybean growing areas, which should be supportive of the harvest process. This is at initial stages in parts of the Mpumalanga province, and it could soon commence in other provinces as a large part of the crop has already matured.Agbiz Morning Market Viewpoint on Agri-Commodities 26 April 2018
The soybean crop is in good condition throughout the country and this is demonstrated in the CEC’s decision to revise South Africa’s 2017/18 soybean production estimate up by 3 percent from the previous season to 1.4 million tonnes (see Chart below). This is underpinned by expected higher yields, as well as an increase in area planted. The key soybean-growing provinces are Free State, Mpumalanga and KwaZulu Natal making up a combined share of 87 percent. The other notable soybean-producing province is Gauteng and North West with a combined share of 8 percent.
This expected large crop implies that South Africa’s soybean market will be well-supplied in the 2018/19 marketing year. The seasonal imports could decline by 27 percent year-on-year to 20 000 tonnes. This is a notable improvement following imports of 271 098 tonnes in the 2016/17 marketing year. Moreover, we estimate that in 2018, soybean oilcake imports could decline by 17 percent from last year to 458 992 tonnes. This too is a remarkable improvement from imports of close to a million tonnes in 2010.
Aside from production aspects, the most recent data from SAGIS shows that South Africa’s soybean stocks were at 261 613 tonnes in March 2018, which is almost double the volume seen in the corresponding period last year. Also worth noting is that soybean consumption (crushed oil and cake) was at 74 282 tonnes in March 2018, down by 20 percent from the corresponding period last year.
Using an estimate of 2.2 million tonnes of South Africa’s soybean crushing capacity, which equates to 183 333 tonnes per month, the country utilised 41% of its monthly soybean processing capacity in March 2018, down by 2 percentage points from the previous month and 10 percentage points from the same period last year.

Chart: South Africa’s soybean production

Source: SAGIS, CEC, Agbiz Research

Full report by Wandile Sihlobo below:

Agbiz Morning Market Viewpoint on Agri-Commodities 26 April 2018

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