Soybeans:

The domestic soybean usage declined in June 2017, despite the increase in supplies. SAGIS data shows that in June 2017, South Africa’s soybean consumption (crushed oil and cake) fell by 22% from the previous month and 30% from the same period last year and eased at 72 095 tonnes.

Maize:

The total maize deliveries were reported at 806 246 tonnes in the week ending 28 July 2017, down 17% from the previous week. About 64% of this was white maize with 36% being yellow maize. This brought South Africa’s 2017/18 total maize deliveries for “week 1 to 13” to 12.39 million tonnes. Of this total, 58% is white maize and 42% is yellow maize.

Wheat:

The weather remains a key focus as the crop is still at early growing stages which require moisture. Unfortunately, the next eight days is likely to be no different from the previous few weeks of dryness. The forecasts only present a possibility of light showers in the coastal areas.

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Sunflower seed:

The relatively lower sunflower seed prices have led to an increase in consumption or usage. As shown in SAGIS data for June 2017 that South Africa’s sunflower seed consumption (crushed oil and cake) increased by 48% month-on-month and 14% year-on-year in June 2017 to 68 482 tonnes.

RSA Potatoes:

In yesterday’s trade session the South African potato market pulled back from the previous day’s level and closed in negative territory. These losses followed a slight uptick in daily stocks to 932 055 bags (10kg bags) at the beginning of the session.

RSA fruit:

The fruit market ended the day mixed in yesterday’s trade session. The bananas and oranges prices were up by 7% and 11% from the previous day, closing at R6.19 per kilogramme and R3.33 per kilogramme, respectively. The price of apples lost 4% from the previous day, closing at R6.64 per kilogramme due to large stocks of 256 739 tonnes.

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Meanwhile, wheat and oilseeds markets ended the week in negative territory, largely pressured by lower international prices and relatively large domestic supplies – particularly for oilseeds.

For fruits and vegetables, the week has again been fairly wobbly with daily stock levels underpinning the market. Lastly, there was nothing much happening in the SAFEX beef market, prices remained flat from the levels seen last week.

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The weather remains a key focus in the South African wheat market as the crop is still at relatively early stages of development that require high moisture. However, this is mainly a concern in dryland areas such as the Western Cape province. The province has not received effective rainfall since the start of the season, thus soil moisture is extremely low.

South African Agricultural Commodities Weekly Wrap

Apart from the USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand report, domestic weekly grain and oilseed trade data, and the producer deliveries, this was a fairly quiet week in the South Africa agricultural commodities markets.

With that said, the weaker domestic currency and strong buying interest led to widespread gains in markets. This was with the exception of wheat which ended the week in negative territory, largely pressured by lower international prices.

For fruits and vegetables, the week has again been fairly volatile with daily stock levels underpinning the market. The SAFEX beef carcass market ended the week on a quiet note with prices unchanged from last week.

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SAFEX beef:

The beef market is slowly showing signs of normalisation after the 2015-16 El Nino-induced drought. Data from the Red Meat Levy Admin shows that South African farmers slaughtered 203 983 head of cattle in June 2017, up by 1% from the previous month. With that said, this is still 16% lower than the corresponding period last year (drought year with higher slaughtering rate). We will monitor the developments closely to determine the impact on prices.

Wheat:

The wheat crop is generally not in good shape due to persistent dryness in the Western Cape Province. The first part of last week was dry and warm across the province, but toward the end of the week, the Swartland region received showers of between 10 and 20 millimetres.

Maize:

Most areas of the country have already completed the harvest process. The ones that have not yet finished could get momentum from the expected drier and cool weather conditions within the next two weeks.

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Soybeans:

The domestic soybean data calendar is light this week, therefore the market performance will largely be guided by the Chicago (soybean) price and domestic currency movements throughout the week. 

Sunflower seed:

From a global perspective – The USDA forecasts 2017/18 global sunflower seed production at 47.3 million tonnes, up 2% from the previous season. The uptick is due to expected large harvest in Russia, Turkey, Ukraine and the EU countries.

RSA Potatoes:

The South African potatoes market saw marginal gains in Friday’s trade session with the price up by 0.24% from the previous day, closing at R28.91 per pocket (10kg). These gains came on the back of relatively lower stocks in the market.

RSA fruit:

The fruit market ended the day mixed on Friday’s trade session. The price of bananas was up by 3% from the previous day, closing at R5.95 per tonne due to strong buying interest. Meanwhile, the prices of apples and oranges fell by 1% and 15% from the previous day, closing at R7.31 per kilogramme and R2.90 per kilogramme, respectively. 

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RSA fruit:

The fruit market was once again mixed in yesterday’s trade session. The price of apples was down by 2% from the previous day, closing at R7.16 per tonne due to large stocks of 240 969 tonnes. Meanwhile, the other products managed to claw back the recent losses due to strong buying interest and a subsequent decline in daily stocks. The prices of bananas and oranges were up by 1% and 10% from the previous day, closing at R6.04 per kilogramme and R3.20 per kilogramme, respectively.

Maize:

In areas that have already harvested, farmers received exceptional yields which support the National Crop Estimate Committee’s view of a possible record crop of 15.97 million tonnes this season. This is well above the 2016/17 crop of 7.78 million tonnes and a long term average production of 12.50 million tonnes.

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Wheat:

The weather forecast has changed drastically. It currently shows a possibility of rainfall of between 16 and 30 millimetres across the Western Cape province within the next two weeks. This will not be sufficient to improve soil moisture but could bring relief after weeks of dryness. In order to realise notable improvements, the province needs roughly 60 millimetres.

Soybeans:

In the absence of major data releases, the domestic soybean market performance will largely be guided by the Chicago (soybean) price and domestic currency movements throughout the week. 

RSA Potatoes:

Large daily potatoes stocks of 1.049 million pockets (10kg) at the start of yesterday’s trade session added bearish pressure to the market. The price ended the day in negative territory, down 2% from the previous day and closing at R28.32 per 10kg pocket.

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South Africa’s maize exports saw a massive rebound in the week ending 11 August 2017. The country exported 111 287 tonnes of maize, well above the previous week’s exports of 48 529 tonnes. About 93% of these exports were yellow maize, with 7% being white maize.

Highlights in today’s morning note

Maize:

The leading buyer was Japan with a share of 90%, all yellow maize. The second largest buyer was Botswana with a share of 4%, largely white maize. Overall, South Africa’s 2017/18 total maize exports currently stand at 993 840 tonnes, which equals to 45% of the season export forecast (2.2 million tonnes).

Wheat:

The weather remains a key focus in the domestic market due as the crop is still at early stages of development. This season is about a month and a half behind schedule. The latest weather forecasts show a possibility of light showers within the next eight days across the southern parts of the Western Cape province. Although this is a welcome relief, it will not be sufficient to improve soil moisture and crop conditions.

Soybeans:

Although the South African soybean prices started the day on a positive footing with support coming from higher international soybean prices, the relatively strong domestic currency and bearish sentiment on the back of expected large supplies countered this movement towards the close of the session.

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Sunflower seed:

Yesterday the domestic sunflower seed spot price spent most of the day in the red territory but managed to recover towards the end of the session. These gains were largely linked to an increase in buying interest towards the close of the session.

RSA Potatoes:

The South African potatoes market gained ground in yesterday’s trade session with the price up by 5% from the previous day, closing at R29.85 per 10kg pocket. These gains were driven by lower stocks of 831 265 pockets (10kg) at the start of the trading session.

SAFEX Beef carcass:

The SAFEX beef carcass market has not shown any notable movements this month due to thinly traded volumes. As a result, the price remains flat at R46.00 per kilogramme.

RSA fruit:

The fruit market saw widespread gains in yesterday’s trade session with support coming from a strong buying interest. The price of apples was up by 5% from the previous day, closing at R7.52 per tonne due to strong buying interest and a subsequent 14% decline in daily stocks to 208 159 tonnes. The prices of bananas and oranges were also up by 3% and 0.31% from the previous day, closing at R6.20 per kilogramme and R3.21 per kilogramme, respectively. These gains were largely on the back of lower stocks of 226 330 tonnes of bananas and 217 497 tonnes of oranges.

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Soybeans:

The relatively stronger Rand against the US Dollar, lower Chicago soybean prices, and expected large supplies kept the domestic soybean prices under pressure in yesterday’s trade session.

Maize:

Farmers continue to deliver maize to commercial silos. The total maize deliveries were reported at 393 366 tonnes in the week ending 11 August 2017, down 13% from the previous week. About 71% of this was white maize with 29% being yellow maize.

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Wheat:

The weather remains a key factor in the domestic market due as the crop is still at early growing stages. This season is about a month and a half behind schedule. The latest weather forecasts show a possibility of light showers of roughly 16 millimetres within the next eight days across the southern parts of the Western Cape province. Although this is a welcome relief, it is not sufficient to improve soil moisture and crop conditions.

RSA Potatoes:

The South African potatoes market pulled back from the previous day’s level owing to relatively large stocks of  863 240 pockets (10kg bag) at the start of the trading session. The price was down by 4% from the previous day, closing at R28.77 per 10kg pocket.

RSA fruit:

The fruit market ended the day on a mixed footing in yesterday’s trade session. The prices of apples and oranges were up by 5% and 1% from the previous day, closing at R7.91 per kilogramme and R3.25 per kilogramme, respectively. These gains were mainly on the back of lower stocks and strong buying interest.

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South African Agricultural Commodities Weekly Wrap

While all domestic grains and oilseeds commodities ended the week in negative territory, wheat held the gains throughout with support coming from strong buying interest and unfavourable weather conditions.

After triggering to R379.39 per tonne on 11 July 2017, the wheat import tariff has again triggered to R752.35 per tonne. Both of these rates have not yet been published in the government gazette. Therefore, the wheat import tariff is still R947.49 per tonne. This essentially means that the wheat import tariff will first decline to R379.39 per ton, then be revised up to R752.35 per tonne. The timeframe for this process is unclear.

Outside of grains and oilseeds market, the fruits and vegetables were fairly volatile this week with daily stock levels underpinning the market. The SAFEX beef carcass market ended the week on a quiet note with prices unchanged from last week.

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This is a data-packed week, with the National Crop Estimate Committee’s seventh maize production estimates and SAGIS weekly data due for release. Any notable changes in these particular data points could lead to movements in the maize markets.

Highlights in today’s morning note

Maize:

Reuters analyst’s survey shows that South Africa’s maize production could be revised up by 1% from the previous estimate to 16.14 million tonnes. Meanwhile, Bloomberg’s survey indicates that the maize crop production estimate could remain unchanged at 15.97 million tonnes. 

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Soybeans:

The expected uptick in production means that South Africa might see minimal imports of soybeans in the 2017/18 season, which will be a remarkable improvement following 2016/17 imports of 271 098 tonnes. The country imported 4 095 tonnes of soybean in July 2017, placing the country’s total imports to 13 028 tonnes.

Sunflower seed:

In terms of trade, South Africa exported 8 tonnes of sunflower seed to Swaziland and Namibia in July 2017. This brought the country’s 2017/18 sunflower seed exports to 117 tonnes. About 69% went to Swaziland, 19% to Botswana and 12% to Namibia.

RSA Potatoes:

The South African potatoes market saw marginal gains in Friday’s trade session with the price up by 0.81% from the previous day, closing at R32.32 per pocket (10kg). These gains came on the back of relatively lower stocks in the market.

SAFEX beef:

The SAFEX beef market has not shown any notable movements this month due to thinly traded volumes. The price remains flat at R46.00 per kilogramme. This means that the SAFEX beef carcass prices could differ from the physical market prices.

RSA fruit:

The fruit market ended the day mixed on Friday’s trade session. The prices of apples and oranges were up by 3% and 15% from the previous day, closing at R7.65 per kilogramme and R3.74 per kilogramme, respectively. Meanwhile, the price of bananas was down by 8% from the previous day, closing at R4.72 per kilogramme. 

Click below for previous reports:

Agbiz Morning Market Viewpoint on Agri-Commodities: 22 August 2017

Agbiz Morning Market Viewpoint on Agri-Commodities: 23 August 2017

Agbiz Morning Market Viewpoint on Agri-Commodities: 24 August 2017

South African Agricultural Commodities Weekly Wrap: 25 August 2017

The post Maize production estimates due for release. appeared first on Agri Limpopo.

RSA Fruit:

The fruit market saw widespread losses in yesterday’s trade session. The prices of apples and bananas were down by 2% and 15% from the previous day, closing at R7.51 per kilogramme and R4.03 per kilogramme, respectively. This was on a back of large stocks of 293 752 tonnes of apples and 369 984 tonnes of bananas. The price of oranges was down by 13% from the previous day, closing at R3.24 per kilogramme. However, this could be short lived due to relatively lower stocks of 185 370 tonnes, down 17% from the previous day.

Maize:

As indicated in our previous note, the focus today is on the National Crop Estimate Committee’s seventh maize production estimates which are due for release in the afternoon. Reuters analyst’s survey shows that South Africa’s maize production could be revised up by 1% from the previous estimate to 16.14 million tonnes.

Wheat:

Although the recent rainfall was not sufficient to replenish soil moisture across many fields in the Western Cape province, it benefited the crop as it is currently in a fair condition. With that said, there is an urgent need for follow up rains in order to maintain and possibly improve the crop condition.

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Soybeans:

Today the National Crop Estimate Committee will release its seventh production estimates. The current estimate is 1.34 million tonnes, up 81% from the previous season’s production. The harvest process finished on positive footing with exceptional yields reported in many areas.

RSA Potatoes:

The South African potatoes market saw substantial gains in yesterday’s trade session with the price up by 4% from the previous day, closing at R33.62 per pocket (10kg). These gains came on the back of relatively lower stocks.

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