RSA Potatoes:

The South African potatoes market gained ground on Tuesday’s trade session with the price up by 5% from the previous day, closing at R30.08 per 10kg pocket. These gains were driven by lower stocks of 859 053 pockets (10kg) at the start of the session. However, during the session, the market saw an increase in deliveries on the back of ongoing harvest. This subsequently led to a 9% uptick in daily stocks to 933 080 tonnes.

Maize:

In terms of trade – South African maize exports fell by 47% in the week ending 04 August 2017 from the previous one and eased at 46 526 tonnes. This was mainly due to a decline in activity in the Kenyan and Taiwanese markets. About 86% of these exports were yellow maize, with 14% being white maize.

Wheat:

The new season crop is not in good shape due to persistent dryness in the Western Cape province. The weather models show that this week could remain dry and cool which will continue to strain the crop.

Click here to read more.

Soybeans:

There is still an underlying bearish sentiment in the domestic soybean market which stems from expected large production of 1.34 million tonnes, up 81% from the previous day.

Sunflower seed:

From a global front there is rising optimism in some EU countries regarding the 2017/18 season sunflower seed crop. France Farm Ministry forecasts a 6% year-on-year uptick in production of sunflower seed this season to 1.3 million tonnes.

RSA fruit:

The fruit market ended the day mixed on Tuesday’s trade session. The apples and bananas prices were down by 3% and 1% from the previous day, closing at R7.38 per kilogramme and R5.74 per kilogramme, respectively. Meanwhile, the price of oranges market gained 18% from the previous day, closing at R3.32 per kilogramme due to strong buying interest. 

The post South African potatoes market gains ground. appeared first on Agri Limpopo.

South Africa’s sub-soil moisture – 02 March 2018

Source: World Weather Inc.

Maize:

Last week’s showers were mainly concentrated in areas around the eastern sections of Limpopo and Mpumalanga provinces, whereas other regions remained cool and dry. With that said, the most recent report from World Weather Inc. shows that soil moisture has improved significantly across the maize belt from dryness experienced at the beginning of the year, particularly the western sections.

As a result, the maize crop is generally in good condition in most sections of the maize belt. Moreover, The expected rainfall within the next two weeks should further improve soil moisture and crop conditions.

It is worth highlighting again that the South African Weather Service forecasts a weak La Niña phase through to early autumn. This means that the maize growing regions of the country could receive good rainfall within the next two month. Overall, this reinforces the National Crop Estimates Committee’s view of a fairly good crop of 12.2 million tonnes in the 2017/18 production season.

In the region, the most recent data from Botswana’s Ministry of Agriculture shows that 2017/18 grain area plantings were at 42 800 hectares by end of February 2018, well below the area 167 562 hectares planted at the corresponding period last year.

Wheat:

Yesterday there was no new news in the domestic wheat market. The main focus today will be SAGIS weekly trade data which should give an indication of the wheat import activity.

To reiterate a point made in yesterday’s note, the upward revision of domestic wheat production to 1.5 million tonnes led a 3% downward revision of 2017/18 wheat import estimate from last month to 1.85 million tonnes. This is however still the second largest import volume on record in a dataset starting from 1936.

On the global front – The International Grains Council forecasts 2017/18 global wheat imports at 180 million tonnes, up by 1% from the previous season. The key importing regions are North Africa and Southeast Asia, with imports estimated at 29 million and 27 million tonnes, respectively. In North Africa region, the key buyers are Egypt, Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia.

Sub-Saharan Africa is also amongst the key wheat importing regions with 2017/18 wheat imports estimated at 23 million tonnes, up by 7% from the previous season. The leading buyers within this region are Nigeria, Sudan, South Africa and Kenya.

Soybeans:

South Africa’s 2017/18 soybean production season started in a better position than other crops due to rainfall in the eastern sections of the country. The crop is currently in good conditions, despite the dry and cool conditions experienced in the past few days.

Looking ahead, the weather forecasts promise higher rainfall within the next two weeks, which should further improve soil moisture and benefit the crop. This actually reinforces the National Crop Estimates Committee’s view of a possible record harvest of 1.4 million tonnes in 2017/18 production, up by 5% y/y.

While this is a welcome development, hail is always a key concern for the eastern sections of South Africa, especially when there are expectations of heavy rainfall. In the past few weeks, hail affected some areas in KwaZulu Natal and Mpumalanga provinces, but the impact on crops was minimal.

From a global demand perspective, China recently bought 198 000 tonnes of soybeans from the US. In fact, the Chinese soybean demand will remain solid throughout the season. The USDA forecasts China’s 2017/18 soybean imports at 97 million tonnes, up by 4% from the previous season. Moreover, this constitutes 65% of 2017/18 global soybean imports.

From a supply point of view, Informa Economics revised its estimate for Brazil’s 2017/18 soybean production up by 2 million tonnes from the previous month to 114 million tonnes. This is almost in line with the previous season’s harvest. Meanwhile, Argentina’s 2017/18 soybean production estimate was revision down by 7 million tonnes from last month to 44 million tonnes, owing to persistent dryness. This is roughly 20% lower than the previous season.

RSA Potatoes:

After recording losses on Friday’s trade session, the South African potatoes market was fairly quiet in yesterday’s trade session despite the large stock of 1.1 million pockets (10kg bag) at the start of the session.

However, towards the end of the session the market experienced commercial buying interest, coupled with relatively lower deliveries on the back of slow harvest activity during the weekend. This subsequently led to a 38% decline in daily stocks to 666 195 pockets (10kg bag).

RSA Fruit:

The fruit market started the week on a negative footing owing to large stocks. The prices of apples and bananas were down by 2% and 8% from the previous day, closing at R7.23 and R6.47 per kilogram, respectively. This was on the back of large stock of 216 00 tonnes of apples and 346 000 tonnes of bananas.

Moreover, the price of oranges declined by 30% from the previous day, closing at R8.31 per kilogram due to commercial selling. Looking ahead, the oranges market should soon gain ground as stocks are at lower levels of 4 000 tonnes, compared to levels of over 50 000 tonnes in December 2017.

Full report available below.

Agbiz Morning Market Viewpoint on Agri-Commodities 06 March 2018

The post Soil moisture has improved significantly across the maize belt appeared first on Agri Limpopo.

Maize:

The South African Weather Service recently revised its view from a weak La Niña phase to a neutral phase from this month through autumn season. Nonetheless, there is still a possibility of above-normal rainfall in most parts of the country over the observed period. This bodes well for maize crop which still needs moisture at its current stage of development.

In the near term, the weather charts currently show a possibility of widespread showers across the maize belt within the next two weeks. This should further improve soil moisture and benefit the crop. Again, this slightly reinforces the National Crop Estimates Committee’s view of a fairly good crop of 12.2 million tonnes in the 2017/18 production season.

Last week’s maize exports were quite disappointing. South Africa exported 14 672 tonnes, down by 43% from the volume exported in the week of 23 February 2018. About 65% of these exports were white maize, with 35% being yellow maize. This placed South Africa’s 2017/18 maize marketing year exports at 2.0 million tonnes, which equates to 83% of the season’s export forecast of 2.4 million tonnes.

Wheat:

As we set out in our note on Monday, at the moment the weather is of less importance in the winter wheat growing areas of South Africa as it is an off-season period. Also worth noting is that the Western Cape province is a winter rainfall area, therefore it is unsurprising that the next two weeks could remain dry and cool.

Nonetheless, the expected dryness implies that dam levels could remain critically low in the near term, thus negatively affect households and other agricultural activities such as livestock and horticulture.

The most recent data from the Department of Water and Sanitation shows that on 05 March 2018, the province’s dam levels averaged 20%, down by one percentage point from the previous week and 10 percentage points from the corresponding period last year.

Apart from the weather aspects, South Africa continues to receive large volumes of wheat imports. The country imported 90 094 tonnes in the week ending 02 March 2018, up by 53% from the previous week. About 43% from Latvia, 32% from Argentina and 25% from Romania. This placed 2017/18 marketing year’s wheat imports at 1.07 tonnes, which equates to 58% of the seasonal import forecast of 1.85 million tonnes.

Although a net importer of wheat, South Africa continues to export wheat to regional markets. The 20th batch of exports this season was recorded at 802 tonnes and went out last week. This was destined to Botswana, Lesotho and Namibia. Moreover, this is well below the previous week’s exports of 2 165 tonnes. Overall, South Africa’s 2017/18 wheat exports currently stand at 16 791 tonnes.

Sunflower seed:

The start of this week has been fairly dry and cool across the sunflower seed growing areas of South Africa. It is only Hoopstad, Wesselsbron, Derby and Ventersdorp areas of North West and western Free State provinces that received light showers on Monday evening.

With that said, the overall sunflower seed region is set to receive good showers within the next two weeks. The current weather forecasts show a possibility of between 16 and 50 millimetres of rainfall. The amount of rainfall might vary from the region by region, but the charts show an overcast across the summer crop growing areas.

Backing these forecasts is also the South African Weather Service’s report which noted a possibility of above normal rainfall within the next two months across summer rainfall areas, which should support the late-planted crop as its still needs moisture.

RSA Potatoes:

Yesterday the potatoes market managed to claw back some of its recent losses owing to strong commercial buying interest. The price was up by 8% from the previous day, closing at R37.13 per pocket (10kg).

In the session, the market saw an uptick in deliveries as harvest activity picks up after a quiet period in the weekend. This led to an 11% increase in daily stocks to 739 972 pockets (10kg bag).

SAFEX Beef:

In yesterday’s trade session the SAFEX beef carcass market presented more of the same. The price remained flat from the previous day, settled at R44.50 per kilogram due to thinly trade volumes.

From a supply point of view, the South African farmers slaughtered 188 737 head of cattle in January 2018, down by 21% from the previous month and 10% from the corresponding period last year. We did expect a bit of softening in slaughtering activity after festive season demand, but the scale of it came as a surprise.

It appears that still rebuilding their stock following a reduction during the 2015-16 drought. Lower maize prices and good recovery in pastures have also provided a good environment for the cattle stock rebuilding process.

Full report available below.

Agbiz Morning Market Viewpoint on Agri-Commodities 07 March 2018

The post Sunflower seed region set to receive good showers within next two weeks appeared first on Agri Limpopo.

Maize:

The weather conditions could remain favourable throughout the production season. The medium-term forecasts promise above average rainfall within the next two months across the maize belt, which should further improve soil moisture and benefit the crop.

From the data front, today the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) will release its monthly update of the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. Last month, the agency placed South Africa’s 2017/18 maize production estimate at 12.5 million tonnes (commercial and non-commercial maize production.), down from last season’s record harvest of 17.5 million tonnes.

While the focus is on the new production season, some farmers continue to deliver old season maize to commercial silos. The total maize deliveries were reported at 4 241 tonnes in the week ending 02 March 2018, well below the previous week’s deliveries of 24 593 tonnes. About 61% of this was white maize, with 39% being yellow maize. Overall, South Africa’s 2017/18 marketing year’s total maize deliveries for “week 1 to 44” currently stand at 15.3 million tonnes. Of this total, 60% is white maize with 40% being yellow maize.

Wheat:

The volumes of wheat recently delivered to commercial silos declined significantly from levels seen the previous weeks. This mirrors the reduction in activity in the farms after the completion of the harvest process .

About 2 848 tonnes of wheat were delivered to commercial silos in the week ending 02 March 2018. This is four-fold lower than the volume delivered the previous week, and well below the volumes delivered in the previous months when the harvest process was at its peak. Overall, this placed South Africa’s winter wheat producer deliveries for “week 1 to 22” of the 2017/18 marketing year at 1.44 million tonnes.

On the global front – Making headlines yesterday was the intergovernmental contract between Iran and Russia, which could potentially lead to about 1.5 million tonnes of wheat exports to Iran in the coming years. This will be an important market for Russia as the country continues to see a solid increase in domestic wheat production.

In its February report, the USDA placed Russia’s 2017/18 wheat production at 85 million tonnes, up by 17% from the previous season owing to an increase in area planted, as well as expected higher yields. This is a notable contribution to global supplies, making up a share of 11%.

Soybeans:

The expected rainfall has not yet materialised in most soybean growing areas of the country. The only areas that received light showers on Tuesday evening were Bethlehem, Fouriesburg, Heilbron, Harrismith, Lindley, Ventersburg, Senekal, Morgenzon and Vereeniging.

Nevertheless, this is not much of a concern as soybean growing areas of South Africa still have a fair amount of soil moisture from rainfall received in the past few weeks. Moreover, the forecast rainfall within the next two weeks is in line with the South African Weather Service’s expectations of above normal rainfall within the next two months across the summer crop growing areas of the country.

In global markets – The global soybean demand remains solid, underpinned by strong demand from China. The USDA recently reported a sale of 120 000 tonnes of US soybean to China. As highlighted in our previous note, China National Grain and Oils Information Centre forecasts the country 2017/18 soybean imports at 96 million tonnes, slightly below the USDA’s estimate of 97 million tonnes.

RSA Potatoes:

The potatoes market lost ground in yesterday’s trade session owing to a large stock of 739 972 tonnes at the start of the session. The price was down by 6% from the previous day, closing at R34.95 per pocket (10kg).

In the session, the market saw an uptick in deliveries owing to ongoing harvest activity in most parts of the country. This led to a 12% increase in daily stocks to 831 606 pockets (10kg bag).

RSA fruit:

The fruit market recorded widespread losses in yesterday’s trade session. The prices of apples and bananas were down by 1% and 3% from the previous day, closing at R8.21 and R7.03 per kilogram. These losses were mainly due to large stocks of 176 000 tonnes of apples and 210 000 tonnes of bananas.

The price of oranges declined by 4% from the previous day and settled at R4.63 per kilogram. This was also pressured by a recovery in stocks to 61 000 tonnes, from levels of below 30 000 tonnes in the past few days.

Full report attached below

Agbiz Morning Market Viewpoint on Agri-Commodities 08 March 2018

The post Weather could remain favourable through maize production season appeared first on Agri Limpopo.

Maize:

The weekend didn’t bring much improvement in soil moisture, the rainfall was quite scattered in a few areas, but mostly in regions of Mpumalanga and eastern Free State provinces. With that said, the maize crop that is currently moisture-stressed following last week’s dryness could soon receive relief as weather forecasts show a possibility of over 60 millimetres of rainfall within the next eight days.

Worth noting, but of lesser significance to the global market, is the effect of pest and diseases which continue to affect crops in the region. The recent report from the  Mozambican government suggests that more than 3 000 hectares of maize plantings have been affected by disease and pest infestations. 

In 2016/17 production season, Mozambique produced 2.0 million tonnes of maize up by 12 percent from the previous season. However, this was slightly below the annual maize consumption of 2.2 million tonnes, and this means that the country will resort to imports to boost supplies. At this point, it is unclear what the 2017/18 maize harvest will be, but reports of crop damage increase a chance of a decline in maize harvest. This could potentially increase Mozambique’s reliance on maize supplies in countries such as South Africa and Zambia.

Wheat:

Yesterday there was no new news in the local wheat market. The weather is not a main focus at the moment as it is an off-season period, but in the next two months or so, the weather will again take the spotlight ahead of the winter wheat planting season.

In provinces such as the Western Cape, soil moisture has not improved as there hasn’t been any meaningful rainfall in months. The weather forecasts for the next two weeks show a possibility of light showers along the coastal areas of the province in the week of 04 April 2018. This will however not lead to any improvement in soil moisture. Above all, it is unclear what the weather conditions will look like in the upcoming season.

Apart from the domestic development, Russia plans to increase its presence in the global wheat market. The country’s Ministry of Agriculture forecasts 2017/18 grain exports at 52 million tonnes, which is a 44 percent uptick from the previous season. About 71 percent of the expected exports is wheat, which is unsurprising following a notable increase in production this season.

Soybeans:

Some soybean growing areas of the country experienced light and scattered showers during the weekend. However, areas around Bethlehem, Frankfort, Kroonstad, Lindley, Ventersburg, Vrede, Warden, Balfour, Davel, Greyling Stad, Irene, Leandra, Lydenburg, Standerton and Vereeniging received rainfall of over 20 millimetres over the weekend. This bodes well for soybean crop as it is still at growing stages that require moisture.

This week promises heavy rainfall across the soybean growing areas of the country. Although unusual at this time of the season, hail remains a concern for the eastern parts of the country when there are expectations of heavy rainfall. The past few weeks brought a bit of hail in some regions of Mpumalanga and KwaZulu Natal province, but the crop damage was limited.

The soybean crop is generally in good condition and if there are no crop damages in the coming weeks, the country will stand a good chance of achieving the National Crop Estimates Committee’s estimate of a new record harvest of 1.4 million tonnes this season, up by 5 percent from the 2016/17 production season.

It is also worth noting that South Africa remains a net importer of soybean oil-cake (meal), but the volumes imported have declined from levels of close to a million tonnes in 2010. Last year, South Africa imported 553 003 tonnes of soybean oilcake, down by 15 percent from volumes imported in 2016. This decline was partly linked to improvement in soybean production in the 2016/17 production season, where the soybean harvest reached a record level of 1.3 million tonnes.

Argentina was a leading supplier with a share of 88 percent of total imports. Zambia, Malawi and the Netherlands were also amongst the key suppliers of oilcake to South Africa, according to data from Trade Map. 

RSA Potatoes:

After experiencing a good run in the past few days, the potatoes market pulled back in yesterday’s trade session owing to a large stock of 1.2 million pockets (10kg bag) at the start of the session. The price was down by 7 percent from the previous day, closing at R28.16 per pocket (10kg).

However, towards the end of the session, the market experienced strong commercial buying interest, coupled with relatively lower deliveries on the back of slow harvest activity during the weekend. This subsequently led to a 33 percent decline in daily stocks to 808 418 pockets (10kg bag).

RSA fruit:

The fruit market was under pressure in yesterday’s trade session owing to commercial selling, as well as large stocks. The prices of apples and bananas were down by 11 percent and 15 percent from the previous day, closing at R7.24 and R6.09 per kilogram, respectively. This was mainly on the back of large stocks of 179 000 tonnes of apples and 326 000 tonnes of bananas.

The price of oranges declined by 28 percent from the previous day and settled at R3.97 per kilogram due to commercial selling. With that said, we believe that these losses could be short-lived because of fairly lower stock of 53 000 tonnes, compared to levels of over 70 000 tonnes in the past few days.

Find full report attached to this e-mail.

Agbiz Morning Market Viewpoint on Agri-Commodities 20 March 2018

The post Maize crop could receive 60 millimetres of rainfall within next eight days appeared first on Agri Limpopo.