The recent outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease could disrupt SA beef exports

Arithmus — Mon, 14 Jan 2019 14:37:39 +0000

The South African beef sector will be under pressure in 2019 due to rising feed costs, as well as potentially slowing exports on the back of a foot-and-mouth disease outbreak.
From a consumer perspective, the beef industry challenges will, however, have positive short-to-medium term benefits as slowing exports would translate into an increase in domestic supply and, in turn, slow meat price inflation.
Our initial maize production estimate of 12.2 million tonnes will not materialise, the crop will most likely be lower due to a potential decline in area planting, as well as prospects of lower yields in late-planted areas.
Soybean harvest will most likely be lower than the 2017/18 production season due to similar factors as maize, which is a decline in area plantings and expectations of poor yields in some areas.
Sunflower seed typically surprises by doing well in seasons that are characterised by prolonged dry spells, as farmers tend to shift from maize to sunflower seed plantings in late-rain seasons. Therefore, sunflower production projections remain uncertain, at least until planting data is received.
The weather will continue to play a key role in the South African agricultural markets in the next three months. Thereafter, the focus will shift to winter crop producing areas. The near-term precipitation prospects are constructive (see page 6).
South Africa’s rice imports will increase in 2019 driven by an uptick in consumption.
The tough production conditions in the grains and oilseeds subsectors will most likely add upward pressure on consumer prices, but we do not expect a notable uptick in headline food price inflation, as lower meat prices will somewhat overshadow the potential upswings.

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Sourced: Agbiz, Agriculture Research

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South African Beef Market – Agri Limpopo

The recent outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease could disrupt SA beef exports