soya – Agri Limpopo

Spotlight on SA soybean production

Arithmus — Thu, 26 Apr 2018 07:21:50 +0000

The next eight days should remain cool and dry over the soybean growing areas, which should be supportive of the harvest process. This is at initial stages in parts of the Mpumalanga province, and it could soon commence in other provinces as a large part of the crop has already matured.Agbiz Morning Market Viewpoint on Agri-Commodities 26 April 2018
The soybean crop is in good condition throughout the country and this is demonstrated in the CEC’s decision to revise South Africa’s 2017/18 soybean production estimate up by 3 percent from the previous season to 1.4 million tonnes (see Chart below). This is underpinned by expected higher yields, as well as an increase in area planted. The key soybean-growing provinces are Free State, Mpumalanga and KwaZulu Natal making up a combined share of 87 percent. The other notable soybean-producing province is Gauteng and North West with a combined share of 8 percent.
This expected large crop implies that South Africa’s soybean market will be well-supplied in the 2018/19 marketing year. The seasonal imports could decline by 27 percent year-on-year to 20 000 tonnes. This is a notable improvement following imports of 271 098 tonnes in the 2016/17 marketing year. Moreover, we estimate that in 2018, soybean oilcake imports could decline by 17 percent from last year to 458 992 tonnes. This too is a remarkable improvement from imports of close to a million tonnes in 2010.
Aside from production aspects, the most recent data from SAGIS shows that South Africa’s soybean stocks were at 261 613 tonnes in March 2018, which is almost double the volume seen in the corresponding period last year. Also worth noting is that soybean consumption (crushed oil and cake) was at 74 282 tonnes in March 2018, down by 20 percent from the corresponding period last year.
Using an estimate of 2.2 million tonnes of South Africa’s soybean crushing capacity, which equates to 183 333 tonnes per month, the country utilised 41% of its monthly soybean processing capacity in March 2018, down by 2 percentage points from the previous month and 10 percentage points from the same period last year.

Chart: South Africa’s soybean production

Source: SAGIS, CEC, Agbiz Research

Full report by Wandile Sihlobo below:

Agbiz Morning Market Viewpoint on Agri-Commodities 26 April 2018

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South Africa’s soybean and its by-product imports set to decline in 2018/19

Arithmus — Wed, 02 May 2018 16:55:39 +0000

South Africa’s soybean and oilcake (meal) imports could decline by 27 percent and 17 percent year-on-year in the
2018/19 marketing year, to 20 000 tonnes and 458 992 tonnes, respectively. This is underpinned by an expected
harvest of 1.4 million tonnes of soybeans in the 2017/18 production. The expected decline in imports is
driven by strong local production and favourable domestic prices, particularly for soybean processors.

There has been an increase in demand for locally produced soybean to meet increasing animal feed demand, which in turn has been stimulated by increases in the demand for high protein food, particularly poultry products. South Africa’s per capita consumption of poultry meat almost doubled over the past 17-years, currently estimated at 41 kilograms, according to data from Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries.

While South Africa is set to remain a net importer of soybeans and oilcake in the current marketing, the production
has grown significantly over the past couple of years (Chart 1). Production grew from levels 58 500 tonnes in 1994/95
production season to an estimated 1.4 million tonnes in the 2017/18 due to expansion in plantings and higher yields.
This is a demand-led growth. In other words, South Africa made significant investments to increase domestic
soybean crushing capacity from roughly 860 000 tonnes in 2012 to a level in excess of 2.2 million tonnes. The
investment towards soybean crushing capacity was aimed at stimulating domestic soybean production, as part of
an import substitution strategy. Local soybean producers responded positively to these demand changes, and for
the first time, the country’s production could reach a record level of 1.4 million tonnes, as previously noted.

Read full report by Wandile Sihlobo in the link below:

SA soybeans and its by-product imports set to decline in 2018,19

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Africa’s soybean industry is not well established

Deidre Carter — Mon, 28 May 2018 08:32:30 +0000

We hardly write about Africa’s soybean industry because the production of the crop is not yet fully established in most countries. South Africa, Nigeria, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Uganda and Egypt are the only African countries amongst the world’s top 40 soybean producers, according to data from the USDA.
South Africa is the only African country with production over a million tonnes. In the current season, the crop is estimated at 1.4 million tonnes. This has materialised due to an increase in area planted, technological improvements in forms of seeds, fertilizers and better farming practices, amongst others. As set out in our soybean note on 30 April 2018, a large number of South African farmers are increasingly planting genetically modified (GM) soybean crops.
In 2016/17 production season, roughly 95 percent of South Africa’s soybean plantings were under GM seeds. This is the only country in the African continent that produces GM soybeans. Therefore, it is no coincidence that South Africa continues to enjoy tremendous growth in soybean output, while production in other African countries remains negligible. The closest to South Africa’s production level is Nigeria, where output averaged 640 000 tonnes over the past 5-seasons.
The most recent data from the USDA shows that Nigeria’s 2017/18 soybean production could amount to 600 000 tonnes, roughly unchanged from the previous season due to unfavourable weather conditions over the past few months. This is slightly below Nigeria’s annual consumption of 610 000 tonnes of soybeans.
Moreover, Zambia’s and Zimbabwe’s 2017/18 soybean production could amount to 300 000 tonnes and 50 000 tonnes, respectively down by 15 percent and 29 percent from the previous production season. The decline in production in both countries is due to unfavourable weather conditions earlier in the season. The soybean production in both Uganda and Egypt is negligible, estimated at 30 000 tonnes and 25 000 tonnes, respectively.

Full report available in the link below.

Agbiz Morning Market Viewpoint on Agri-Commodities 22 May 2018

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