Summer crops – Agri Limpopo

Chances of an El Niño weather event developing this year at 70%

Arithmus — Wed, 10 Oct 2018 12:27:31 +0000

On Monday, we painted a somewhat optimistic picture regarding the weather outlook this year, basing our opinion on the South African Weather Service’s report which indicated a possibility of above-normal rainfall over most parts of the summer crop growing areas between November 2018 and January 2019, with a chance of dryness later in the summer season due to an expected El Niño.
At the time, this view was in line with the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. However, yesterday the Australians placed the chances of an El Niño weather event developing this year at 70 percent, up from the previous estimate of 55 percent. This suggests that there is a higher chance of that the 2018/19 maize production season, which opened at the beginning of this month, could experience dryness.
It is still unclear whether South African farmers will reduce the intentions to plant because of this forecast. However, we will have a better indication when the Crop Estimate Committee releases the ‘farmers’ intentions to plant’ data for the 2018/19 production season on 25 October 2018.

Click HERE to view the full report.

Sourced: Agbiz Morning Market Viewpoint on Agri-Commodities

The post Chances of an El Niño weather event developing this year at 70% appeared first on Agri Limpopo.

Today we will get a sense of SA 2018/19 summer crop planting intentions

Arithmus — Thu, 25 Oct 2018 08:04:09 +0000

The data calendar today is packed, but the most anticipated release is the ‘intentions of farmers’ to plant 2018/19 summer crops to be released by national Crop Estimate Committee in the afternoon. An analysts’ survey by Bloomberg shows that the area plantings could be lifted by 5 percent from the 2017/18 production season to 2.44 million hectares. About 1.37 million hectares could possibly be white maize, with 1.07 million hectares likely to be utilised for yellow maize production.
The planting process has begun in several areas and is set to gain momentum over the next couple of weeks. This is all due to improved soil moisture in the eastern and central regions of South Africa, and also prospects of widespread higher rainfall over the maize-belt within the next two weeks.
Also on the calendar today is the weekly grain trade data which is due for release at midday. South Africa exported 29 989 tonnes of maize in the week of 12 October 2018, down by 48 percent from the previous week. The leading buyer was Ghana, accounting for 67 percent of overall weekly exports. This placed South Africa’s 2018/19 maize exports at 1.4 million tonnes, which equates to 61 percent of the seasonal export forecast of 2.3 million tonnes. About 88 percent of the exports is yellow maize, with white maize accounting for 12 percent.

Click HERE for the full report.

Sourced: Agbiz, Agribusiness Research

The post Today we will get a sense of SA 2018/19 summer crop planting intentions appeared first on Agri Limpopo.

South African farmers intend to increase summer crop hectares in 2018/19

Arithmus — Fri, 26 Oct 2018 06:28:42 +0000

The ‘intentions to plant’ data provided tentative evidence that South Africa could have another good production season, which might keep the country’s grain supplies in good shape at least until 2020. This is under the assumption that the expected El Niño, which we cautioned about in our previous notes, could be fairly weak and potentially occur later in the summer season as some forecasters already suggest. Figures released this afternoon by the national Crop Estimate Committee shows that South African farmers intend to increase the area planting for summer grain and oilseed by 5 percent from 2017/18 season to 4.03 million hectares. Most summer crops showed an uptick, with the exception of sunflower seed and groundnuts. This is partly driven by the favourable agricultural commodity prices.

To dive into the details of the aforementioned summary, South African farmers intend to plant 2.4 million hectares of maize, up by 6% from the 2017/18 production estimate. This was in line with our and Bloomberg’s consensus forecast of 6% y/y uptick in area plantings. About 1.3 million hectares is white maize with 1.1 million hectares being yellow maize, both up from levels planted in the 2017/18 production season.
Soybeans continue to surprise us, pleasantly, as farmers intend to lift the area planting to a new record of 851 800 hectares, up by 8% y/y. This is supported by growing demand in the domestic animal feed market. On the downward side, the area intended for sunflower seed plantings could fall by 4% y/y to 575 000 hectares.
The planting activity has begun in the eastern and central parts of South Africa following recent rainfall which somewhat improved soil moisture. The South African Weather Service forecasts higher rainfall over summer crop growing areas between November 2018 and January 2019, which bodes well with the new season crop. However, the period thereafter could experience dryness associated with expected El Niño, albeit some weather forecasters arguing that it could be fairly weaker.
We worry about the potential impact of this on crops as it could coincides with pollination stages of development of some crops. We will keep a close eye on this in the coming months.

Click HERE for the full report.

Sourced: Agbiz, Agribusiness Research

The post South African farmers intend to increase summer crop hectares in 2018/19 appeared first on Agri Limpopo.

SA could receive above normal rainfall within the next three months

Arithmus — Mon, 05 Nov 2018 08:16:30 +0000

Last week, the South African Weather Service noted that ‘the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is still in a neutral phase and although most models indicate a strong strengthening towards an El Niño phase in the early summer season, it is not expected to have an influence on South Africa during the first half of summer.’
The weather agency further indicated that above-normal rainfall conditions are expected over most parts of parts of the country during early summer, which is November 2018 and January 2019. This is evident on the near term weather forecasts which currently show prospects of higher rainfall over the summer crop growing areas of South Africa within the next two weeks. This could help improve soil moisture, which will subsequently benefit the germination process in areas that have planted and boost planting activity in areas that have not yet planted.
With that said, the period between late January and March 2019 could experience dryness associated with expected El Niño, albeit some weather forecasters arguing that it could be fairly weaker. We worry about the potential impact this may have on summer crops as it could coincide with pollination of major grains and oilseeds. We will keep a close eye on this in the coming months.
Aside from the aforementioned weather developments, the dam levels have improved significantly in the Western Cape province, thanks to the recent rainfall (see Figure 1 below).

Click HERE for the full report.

Sourced: Agbiz, Agribusiness Research

The post SA could receive above normal rainfall within the next three months appeared first on Agri Limpopo.