Chances of an El Niño weather event developing this year at 70%

Arithmus — Wed, 10 Oct 2018 12:27:31 +0000

On Monday, we painted a somewhat optimistic picture regarding the weather outlook this year, basing our opinion on the South African Weather Service’s report which indicated a possibility of above-normal rainfall over most parts of the summer crop growing areas between November 2018 and January 2019, with a chance of dryness later in the summer season due to an expected El Niño.
At the time, this view was in line with the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. However, yesterday the Australians placed the chances of an El Niño weather event developing this year at 70 percent, up from the previous estimate of 55 percent. This suggests that there is a higher chance of that the 2018/19 maize production season, which opened at the beginning of this month, could experience dryness.
It is still unclear whether South African farmers will reduce the intentions to plant because of this forecast. However, we will have a better indication when the Crop Estimate Committee releases the ‘farmers’ intentions to plant’ data for the 2018/19 production season on 25 October 2018.

Click HERE to view the full report.

Sourced: Agbiz Morning Market Viewpoint on Agri-Commodities

SA could receive above normal rainfall within the next three months

Arithmus — Mon, 05 Nov 2018 08:16:30 +0000

Last week, the South African Weather Service noted that ‘the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is still in a neutral phase and although most models indicate a strong strengthening towards an El Niño phase in the early summer season, it is not expected to have an influence on South Africa during the first half of summer.’
The weather agency further indicated that above-normal rainfall conditions are expected over most parts of parts of the country during early summer, which is November 2018 and January 2019. This is evident on the near term weather forecasts which currently show prospects of higher rainfall over the summer crop growing areas of South Africa within the next two weeks. This could help improve soil moisture, which will subsequently benefit the germination process in areas that have planted and boost planting activity in areas that have not yet planted.
With that said, the period between late January and March 2019 could experience dryness associated with expected El Niño, albeit some weather forecasters arguing that it could be fairly weaker. We worry about the potential impact this may have on summer crops as it could coincide with pollination of major grains and oilseeds. We will keep a close eye on this in the coming months.
Aside from the aforementioned weather developments, the dam levels have improved significantly in the Western Cape province, thanks to the recent rainfall (see Figure 1 below).

Click HERE for the full report.

Sourced: Agbiz, Agribusiness Research