Slow progress in SA sunflower seed planting

Arithmus — Mon, 12 Nov 2018 06:52:10 +0000

We do not expect the sunflower seed planting process to show good progress this week as soil moisture will not have improved from last week’s levels. Also, the weather outlook for the next eight days shows drier weather conditions over most sunflower seed producing provinces, specifically North West and the western Free State. These two provinces account for 85 percent of the 575 000 hectares earmarked for sunflower seed planting in 2018/19 production season.
However, conditions could change in the week of 27 November 2018, which promises widespread rainfall of between 20 and 60 millimetres over most parts of the country. But the slow progress in sunflower seed planting thus far is not a major concern as the optimal planting window typically runs between November and early January each year. So, there is still time.
Having said that, it would be ideal if farmers in areas with better soil moisture could begin the planting as soon as possible so that the pollination period could occur early next year when there is still a good chance for higher rainfall. The South African Weather Service forecasts drier weather conditions between the end of January and March 2019, and this could coincide with pollination and negatively affect the crop.
With South Africa being a net importer of sunflower seed by products, it is important to keep a close eye on the global sunflower seed developments. To that end, the USDA forecasts 2018/19 global sunflower seed production at 50 million tonnes, up by 6 percent from the previous season. The key contributing countries to the expected large harvest are Ukraine, Russia, Argentina, China and Hungary. In the same season, the 2018/19 global sunflower seed ending stock could be up by 15 percent from the previous season to 4 million tonnes, partly boosted by the expected large harvest.
Aside from the aforementioned weather developments, the dam levels have improved significantly in the Western Cape province, thanks to the recent rainfall (see Figure 1 below).

Agbiz Morning Market Viewpoint on Agri-Commodities 12 November 2018

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Sourced: Agbiz, Agribusiness Research

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The next two weeks could bring positive change in sunflower seed growing areas

Arithmus — Wed, 21 Nov 2018 08:22:34 +0000

There is still limited activity in the sunflower fields due to lower soil moisture on the back of drier weather conditions in the past couple of weeks. But the next two weeks could bring positive change as weather charts currently show prospects of roughly 20 to 90 millimetres of rainfall over the sunflower seed growing areas within the next two weeks. Some areas have already started receiving showers, and this could intensify in the next couple of days.
While the forecast rainfall is a positive development for the 2018/19 production season, it also means that sunflower seed planting could experience a further two weeks’ delay due to wet conditions, but planting should begin as soon as the weather clears.
This is not a main concern in the market as there is still sufficient time for sunflower seed planting. South Africa’s sunflowers seed optimal planting window will only close at the beginning of January 2019 in the main sunflower seed producing provinces such as the Free State and North West. To reiterate a point made yesterday, our recommendations for early plantings in areas that had good soil moisture was due to expectations of drier weather conditions between the ends of January to March 2019. This period could coincide with pollination, which requires moisture. Therefore, in an event of drier weather conditions, yields could be negatively affected.
Also worth noting is that during the drier production seasons of 2014/15 and 2015/16, South Africa’s sunflower seed yields averaged 1.10 tonnes per hectare. If we assume a yield of this size on intended area plantings of 575 000 hectares, South Africa’s 2018/19 sunflower seed production could amount to 632 500 tonnes.
But, this is possibly a worst case scenario, as we don’t believe that the weather conditions could be as dry as 2015-16 period. There are expectations of a weak El Niño. Therefore, if we assume that the 2018/19 sunflower seed yields could amount to 1.28 tonnes per hectare, a five-year average yield, on an area plantings of 575 000 hectares, then production could amount to 736 000 tonnes, down by 14 percent from the previous season.

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Sourced: Agbiz, Agribusiness Research

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sunflower seed planting – Agri Limpopo

Slow progress in SA sunflower seed planting

The next two weeks could bring positive change in sunflower seed growing areas