trade – Agri Limpopo

SA agricultural trade balance remains positive.

Arithmus — Wed, 30 Aug 2017 09:00:13 +0000

Africa remained South Africa’s largest market, accounting for 44% of agricultural exports – which is 9% below the 5-year average share. The EU accounted for 26% of South Africa’s agricultural exports in 2016, with Asia taking up 22%. Americas and the rest of the world (ROW) accounted for 5% and 3%, respectively.

Despite the worst drought in more than a decade, the South Africa’s agricultural sector recorded a positive trade balance of US$2.3 billion in 2016. This was boosted by growth in exports of edible fruits, beverages, spirits and vegetables, with the total agricultural export value amounting to US$8.6 billion, up 6% from 2015. These products are mainly grown in the Western Cape province, which was not as severely affected by the 2016 drought as the rest of the country. Meanwhile, imports also increased by 26% y/y reaching US$6.3 billion – driven by a notable uptick in grain imports on the back of the drought.

Looking ahead – Given the recovery in agricultural production, we expect the South African agricultural trade balance to remain positive in 2017. This will essentially support the country’s current account.

Click here to read more.

The post SA agricultural trade balance remains positive. appeared first on Agri Limpopo.

Spain again a leading buyer of SA maize

Arithmus — Wed, 09 May 2018 06:35:11 +0000

The weather forecasts have changed overnight and currently shows a possibility of dry and cool weather conditions over the South African maize-belt within the next two weeks. This bodes well for the crop ahead of the harvest process in dryland areas. There could, however, be light showers in parts of Mpumalanga and Free State provinces within the next eight days, but that might have minimal impact on the crop as the week thereafter promises cool conditions.
Furthermore, the maize harvest process, currently underway in the irrigation areas of the country, could gain momentum within the next two weeks. Overall, South Africa is in for a relatively good maize harvest in the 2017/18 production season, estimated at 12.8 million tonnes. While lower than the previous season’s harvest, this is well above the long-term average production of 12.0 million tonnes.
In terms of trade, South Africa started the 2018/19 marketing year on good footing with exports amounting to 65 753 tonnes, which equates to 3 percent of seasonal forecast. About 96 percent was white maize, with the rest being yellow.The leading buyer was Spain, accounting for an 81 percent share of weekly maize exports.
This is the second consignment of maize leaving for Spain this year. It is unclear whether this will be utilised in animal feed or human consumption. The typical supplies of maize to Spain are Brazil, US, Ukraine, France, Romania, Canada and Bulgaria, amongst others. Almost all these countries largely produce yellow maize. Therefore, it is possible that Spain will utilise the imported volume in animal feed market.
Also worth noting is that over the past 5-years, Spain imported on overage, about 6.4 million tonnes of maize a year. Hence, this could be a good long-term market for local farmers as South Africa is typically a net exporter of maize.

Read full report by Wandile Sihlobo below:

Agbiz Morning Market Viewpoint on Agri-Commodities 09 May 2018

The post Spain again a leading buyer of SA maize appeared first on Agri Limpopo.

The weather and trade policy remains topical issues in the SA wheat market

Arithmus — Tue, 28 Aug 2018 07:41:15 +0000

This past weekend the Western Cape province received widespread showers which should slightly improve soil moisture and benefit the crop as it starts to pollinate in some areas.
Although this is a welcome development, it might not lead to widespread improvement in crop conditions across the province. The Swartland and Overberg regions will benefit as the crop was already in good condition. Meanwhile, the southern Cape region might see minimal improvement as part of the crop had already been damaged by drier weather conditions experienced over the past couple of weeks.

In terms of trade policy, the wheat import tariff rate of R640.54 per tonne that triggered on 10 July 2018 was finally published in a government gazette on 24 August 2018, making it an official rate. Nonetheless, this could be short-lived, the wheat import tariff triggered again on 16 August 2018 to R298.45 per tonne due to an uptick in international wheat prices (No2 HRW) on the back of an expected decline in production. This newly calculated rate will also be effective only after publication in a government gazette, of which the timeframe is unclear.

These developments are of importance, not only because South Africa is a net importer, but imports are set to reach 1.9 million tonnes, the second highest level on record, in the 2017/18 marketing year, which ends in September 2018. There could be a decline to levels around 1.6 million tonnes in the 2018/19 marketing year due to expectations of an uptick in local production. With that said, this will remain an important subject as imports will roughly constitute half of local wheat consumption.

Today the Crop Estimate Committee will release its first production estimate for 2018/19 winter wheat. The International Grains Council is quite optimistic, placed its estimate for South Africa’s 2018/19 wheat production at 1.8 million tonnes, up by 20 percent higher than the previous season due to improved weather conditions.

Sourced: Agribusiness Research

Click HERE for the full report.

The post The weather and trade policy remains topical issues in the SA wheat market appeared first on Agri Limpopo.