western cape – Agri Limpopo

Winter rainfall could be slightly delayed

Arithmus — Wed, 18 Apr 2018 07:50:46 +0000

It seems that the winter rainfall, which typically starts at the end April in the Western Cape province, could be slightly delayed. The weather charts have cleared across most parts of the province, with light showers expected within the next eight days to be mainly concentrated towards the coastal areas.
With that said, the weather forecasts for the week ending 03 May 2018 show a bit of improvement, with chances of between 16 and 20 millimetres of rainfall across the province. While a welcome development, this might not make a meaningful improvement in soil moisture. The province needs intense and continuous rainfall following the months of dryness.
Moreover, this means the provincial dam levels could remain at fairly lower levels for some time. In the week of 16 April 2018, the dams averaged 17 percent, fairly unchanged from the previous week, but 6 percentage points lower than the corresponding period last year (see Map below for dam levels).
Above all, the 2018 winter wheat production season could be better than last year. While rainfall could be delayed, there is a bit of optimism following the South African Weather Service view that parts of the south-western cape regions of the country could receive above-normal rainfall between the end of April and June 2018.
As set out last week, this rainfall will be critical for improving soil moisture content ahead of planting, which starts next month. Already, the USDA forecast South Africa’s 2018/19 wheat production at 1.65 million tonnes, up by 8 percent from the previous season.

Chart: South Africa’s average dam levels: week ended 16 April 2018, with the same week last year in brackets

Source: Department of Water and Sanitation and Agbiz Research

Full report by Wandile Sihlobo in attachment below:

Agbiz Morning Market Viewpoint on Agri-Commodities 18 April 2018

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The weather continues to dominate the domestic wheat market

Deidre Carter — Thu, 21 Jun 2018 08:13:30 +0000

The weather will remain central in the discussion of the domestic wheat market for some time as the crop is still at its early stages of development that requires moistures, with some wheat-growing regions such as Free State province still at planting stages.

This morning the weather charts show a possibility of light showers of between 10 and 20 millimetres within the next eight days in the areas around Swartland, Helderberg, Winelands and Overberg regions of the Western Cape province. This will help sustain crops in fair condition in the Swartland and Overberg regions, while Swartland could be strained due to lower soil moisture (topsoil and subsoil).

Be that as it may, the Western Cape province still needs intense and persistent rainfall in order to sufficiently improve subsoil moisture. The recent showers in some regions have been helpful in terms of sustaining the crop and improving topsoil moisture. Also worth noting is that the Western Cape provincial dam levels averaged 32 percent in the week of 18 June 2018, up by 6 percentage points from the previous week and 11 percentage points from the corresponding period last year.

In our previous notes, we talked a bit about expectations of higher rainfall over the Western Cape province within the next three months, leaning on the South African Weather Service and International Research Institute for Climate and Society’s forecast. These views have not changed. There is still some level of optimism regarding the weather in the medium term.

Click HERE to read the full report by Wandile Sihlobo

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The winter wheat harvest process is slowly gaining momentum in the Western Cape

Arithmus — Thu, 01 Nov 2018 06:48:30 +0000

The winter wheat harvest process is slowly gaining momentum in the Western Cape. The most recent data from SAGIS shows that 78 731 tonnes of wheat were delivered to commercial silos in the week of 26 October 2018, well above the initial deliveries of 7 716 tonnes.
While some areas of the province received light showers at the start of the week, which somewhat slowed the harvest process, there has now been an improvement. The weather conditions were generally favourable yesterday and some farmers have resumed the harvest process. Looking ahead, the weather forecast for the next two weeks shows clear skies with scattered clouds over most parts of the Western Cape, which means the harvest process could continue with interruptions in some areas.
We place more emphasis on this particular province, not only because the crop matured earlier than other provinces due to differences in planting dates, but because of its share contribution to South African wheat production. The province accounts for 49 percent of the estimated 1.86 million tonnes in the 2018/19 production season. Most importantly, the province’s wheat production is up by 54 percent from the 2017/18 season. This is due to favourable weather conditions which have led to fairly higher yields in most areas, not the expansion in the area. In fact, the area planted this season down marginally from the 2017/18.
This optimism does not only end within the Western Cape, but the crop growing conditions are also favourable in provinces such as the Northern Cape, Free State, Eastern Cape and Limpopo, amongst others – all thanks to recent showers and improved water levels in the dams for irrigation following good summer and winter rainfall. Above all, if the aforementioned harvest projection of 1.86 million tonnes materialises, South Africa’s wheat imports could fall by a third from last year’s volume to 1.4 million tonnes in the 2018/19 marketing year.

Click HERE to view the full report.

Sourced: Agbiz, Agribusiness Research

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Winter wheat harvest process is in full swing in the Western Cape

Arithmus — Thu, 15 Nov 2018 06:33:47 +0000

Winter wheat harvest process is in full swing in the Western Cape, with the progress made thus far reflected on the producer deliveries data which amounted to 250 376 tonnes in the week of 02 November 2018. This equates to 28 percent of the Western Cape’s expected wheat harvest.
The weather conditions were favourable in most parts of the Western Cape last week, and that enabled farmers to increase the winter wheat harvest pace. The progress made will be reflected in the producer deliveries data for the week of 09 November 2018 which are due for release tomorrow.
While the crop in other provinces is still far from harvesting due to differences in planting period , there are expectations of higher yields due to favourable weather conditions. This is specifically the Northern Cape, Free State, Eastern Cape and Limpopo, amongst others.
While production could improve in the 2018/19 season to 1.86 million tonnes on the back of the aforementioned favourable production conditions, South Africa will remain a net importer of wheat (1.4 million tonnes), therefore, developments in the global market could influence the local activities.
The USDA forecasts 2018/19 global wheat production at 734 million tonnes, which is 4 percent lower than the previous season’s harvest. The decline is mainly due to an expected lower harvest in Australia, Russia, Canada and the EU region amongst others. Meanwhile, consumption is expected to remain fairly stable despite the uptick in prices. As a result, the global wheat ending stocks could fall by 7 percent from the 2017/18 season to 260 million tonnes, which should support global wheat prices in the near-to-medium term.

Click HERE for the full report.

Sourced: Agbiz, Agribusiness Research

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Factors currently underpinning SA grain and oilseed market

Arithmus — Thu, 15 Nov 2018 07:26:00 +0000

After experiencing a good run at the beginning of the week, yesterday almost all SAFEX grain and oilseed contract month prices pulled back and settled in negative territory. This was underpinned by a broad range of factors, but the most notable ones were the recovery in the domestic currency, as well as prospects of higher rainfall within the next two weeks. This morning the near term weather forecasts suggest that most parts of the country (with the exception of the Northern Cape and northern parts of Limpopo) could receive as much as 20 to 80 millimetres of rainfall. This is good for both areas that are yet to plant as it will improve soil moisture ahead of the process, and also bode well for recently planted areas as it will support the germination process of the crop.
The weather and ZAR/USD exchange are fundamental factors that will continue to underpin the domestic grain and oilseed market for months to come. In the case of the weather, however, the critical months are October to February, which is typically planting to pollination.
As set out in our previous notes, there is general optimism in the farming community regarding the 2018/19 summer grain and oilseed production. This is evident from the recent tractor sales data, and also farmers’ intentions to plant data. The data showed that summer grain and oilseed area plantings could increase by 5 percent year-on-year to 4.03 million tonnes in the 2018/19 production season. Most summer crops are expected to increase, with the exception of sunflower seed and groundnuts. While these farmer’s intentions are promising they are just that: farmers’ intentions. The actual summer crop planting estimates will be released on 29 January 2019.
The key risk on the path ahead, which we have emphasised in our previous notes, is the possibility of a weak El Niño. The South African Weather Service has indicated that this weather phenomenon could lead to drier weather condition in a period between the end of January and March 2019. This is a crucial period for most grain and oilseed because it coincides with pollination, which requires moisture. The global agricultural agencies such as the International Grains Council and the United States Department of Agriculture, amongst others, painted a somewhat positive picture of South Africa’s 2018/19 summer grain and oilseed production outlook, albeit the estimates lower than the previous production year. For example, maize production estimates currently range between 12.3 and 13.0 million tonnes, which is well above the long-term average of 12.0 million tonnes. Going forward, however, the weather will be a key determinant of whether any of the aforementioned data points materialise and this will be a central theme in the market for the next three months.

Winter Crops

Winter wheat harvest process is in full swing in the Western Cape. In the first six weeks of the 2018/19 marketing year, the producer deliveries amounted to 449 888 tonnes, which equates to 50 percent of the Western Cape’s expected harvest for the current season. While the upcoming deliveries figure for 16 November 2018 could show a further uptick form volumes delivered the previous weeks, the weeks of November 23 and 30 shows prospects of rainfall over the Western Cape, which could slow the process and might also negatively affect the quality of the crop in areas that have not yet harvested. Above all, South Africa’s wheat production is estimated at 1.86 million tonnes, up by 21 percent year-on-year. The improvement is on the back of higher yields and an expansion in overall area planted.
We are on the road again today, we will be back with the usual Agbiz Morning Market Viewpoint tomorrow, 16 November 2018.

Click HERE for the full report.

Sourced: Agbiz, Agribusiness Research

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