The 2018/19 winter wheat is likely to be one of South Africa’s large harvests

Arithmus — Tue, 25 Sep 2018 10:17:11 +0000

The 2018/19 winter wheat is likely to be one of South Africa’s large harvests, thanks to favourable weather conditions and an expansion in area planted. The rainfall and cold temperatures experienced in the past two weeks in the Western Cape province could boost the yields in most regions. The feedback from farmers in most parts of the province has been quite positive in terms of yield expectations.
While the crop in the Western Cape is at an advanced stage of development, other provinces are still at early stages due to differences in planting periods. But, the growing conditions are favourable in provinces such as the Northern Cape, Free State, Eastern Cape and Limpopo, amongst others — all thanks to recent rainfall and improved water levels in the dams following good summer rainfall (see Figure 1). Looking ahead, the weather forecast over the Free State, Limpopo, Mpumalanga and North West provinces shows prospects of rainfall within the next two weeks, which bodes well with the crop.
It is also worth noting that the recent rainfall in the Western Cape did not only improve crop conditions, but it also boosted dam levels as well. The most recent data from the Department of Water and Sanitation shows that the Western Cape provincial dam levels averaged 62 percent in the week of 17 September 2018, up by 26 percentage points from the same period last year.
Tomorrow the Crop Estimate Committee will release its second production estimate for South Africa’s 2018/19 winter wheat. The current estimate is at 1.8 million tonnes, up by 18 percent from the previous season. We do not foresee any major changes as weather conditions have generally been favourable since the last assessment.
Under the aforementioned production scenario, South Africa’s wheat imports for the 2018/19 marketing year which starts in October 2018 could decline by 33 percent from the previous season to 1.4 million tonnes. This is good for the country’s agricultural trade balance.

Read Wandile Sihlobo’s full article HERE

The post The 2018/19 winter wheat is likely to be one of South Africa’s large harvests appeared first on Agri Limpopo.

SA winter wheat harvest process likely to continue with minimal interruptions in the next few weeks

Arithmus — Tue, 06 Nov 2018 07:13:19 +0000

While light showers in some parts of the Western Cape might have somewhat slowed the harvest process over the weekend, the pace could pick up within the next two weeks due to expected cool and drier weather conditions in the province.
The harvest progress made last week will be reflected on the producer deliveries data which are due for release at midday tomorrow. In the week of 26 October 2018, the producer deliveries amounted to 78 731 tonnes, well above the initial deliveries of 7 716 tonnes.
The feedback from farmers in areas that have already harvested has been fairly positive, suggesting that yields are mostly average-to-above average. This supports the Crop Estimate Committee’s view of higher yields this season and an overall harvest of 1.86 million tonnes, up by 21 percent from the 2017/18 production season.
The Western Cape is central to this optimism. After all, the decline in 2017/18 season’s wheat production was largely due to the poor harvest in the Western Cape, hence its recovery will have a notable impact on the national harvest. To reiterate a point made yesterday, the Western Cape accounts for 49 percent of the estimated 1.86 million tonnes of winter wheat in the 2018/19 production season.
The aforementioned production improvement bodes well for South Africa’s agricultural trade balance as it will lead to a decline in wheat imports. Assuming that the aforementioned harvest projection materialises, South Africa’s wheat imports could fall by a third from last year’s volume to 1.4 million tonnes.
On the global front, the USDA indicated that farmers could lift wheat plantings in 2019/20 season by 9 percent year on year to 17.4 million hectares due to attractive prices on the back of tight global supplies. To recap, the 2018/19 global wheat production estimated at 729 million tonnes, down by 5 percent from the previous season, according to data from the International Grains Council. The losses are mainly in the EU, the Black Sea and Australia, amongst other countries – all underpinned by unfavourable weather conditions earlier in the season.

Click HERE for the full report.

Sourced: Agbiz, Agribusiness Research

The post SA winter wheat harvest process likely to continue with minimal interruptions in the next few weeks appeared first on Agri Limpopo.

wheat harvest – Agri Limpopo

The 2018/19 winter wheat is likely to be one of South Africa’s large harvests

SA winter wheat harvest process likely to continue with minimal interruptions in the next few weeks