The fundamentals in the domestic maize market remain unchanged
Spotlight on soybean meal
June 19, 2018
The weather continues to dominate the domestic wheat market
June 21, 2018
The fundamentals in the domestic maize market remain unchanged, which means the supplies are in good shape. The 2018/19 domestic maize supply is estimated at 16.3 million tonnes, which is well above the annual domestic needs of 10.8 million tonnes. For clarity, the supply figure includes the expected production, as well as opening stock.
In the fields, the harvest activity started a bit late this year compared to previous years due to delays in the planting at the start of the season (on the back of unfavourable weather conditions). However, the activity could gain momentum in the next couple of weeks due to expected favourable weather conditions over the maize belt. Furthermore, today’s producer deliveries data will give an indication of the progress made in the week of 15 June 2018. In the first six weeks of this marketing year, farmers have already delivered about 1.4 million tonnes of maize to commercial silos, which equates to 11 percent of the expected production.
Against this backdrop, South Africa’s 2018/19 marketing year maize exports could, at least, amount to 2.4 million tonnes, down by 4 percent from the volume exported in 2017/18. To reiterate a point made in our previous notes, the expected large supply suggests that the SAFEX maize prices could remain at relatively lower levels for some time, all else being equal.
Last week, South Africa’s maize export activity recovered from the disappointing levels observed in the week of 08 June 2018. The weekly exports amounted to 84 642 tonnes, with 95 percent being yellow maize and the rest being white maize. The leading buyers were Vietnam and South Korea, which collectively accounted for 91 percent of last week’s exports. Overall, this placed South Africa’s 2018/19 maize exports at 397 925 tonnes.
