Spotlight on global maize market

• The global maize market will be well supplied in the 2018/19 season. The International Grains Council forecasts production at 1.05 billion tonnes, up by a percentage point from the 2017/18 production season. This is in line with the United States Department of Agriculture’s estimate for the corresponding period. The uptick is driven by prospects of a good harvest in parts of South America, Asia and the Black Sea regions.
• Brazil, Argentina, Ukraine and China’s 2018/19 maize production estimated at 94 million tonnes (+13% y/y), 48 million tonnes (+14% y/y), 29 million tonnes (+15% y/y) and 220 million tonnes (+2%), respectively. This could overshadow the potential decline in output in other large maize producing countries such as the US, India and the EU region, amongst others.
• The crop in a number of countries is still in its early stages of development and some regions in the Southern Hemisphere have not yet started planting. Therefore, the weather will be an important factor to monitor over the coming months in order to assess whether these forecasts will materialise or there will be some revisions.
• The global maize demand is also expected to remain solid, with 2018/19 global imports estimated at 151 million tonnes, up by 3 percent from the previous season. The leading importers include Japan, Egypt, South Korea and the EU region, amongst others.
• The aforementioned developments will have minimal impact on the South African maize market in the near term, as the expected large supplies of 16.7 million tonnes (compared to an annual consumption of 10.8 million tonnes) will keep SAFEX maize prices at fairly lower levels for some time.

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