Spotlight on the domestic maize market

• Yesterday the National Crop Estimates Committee lifted its estimate for South Africa’s 2017/18 commercial maize production by a percentage point from the previous month to 12.9 million tonnes, in line with Bloomberg consensus estimate. The upward revision was mainly on white maize, which lifted to 6.7 million tonnes from 6.6 million tonnes. Meanwhile, yellow maize production estimate was revised up marginally and currently at 6.2 million tonnes. This was underpinned by expectations of higher yields.
• Moreover, the non-commercial or smallholder maize production estimate was left unchanged from last month, at 593 975 tonnes (down by 18 percent from last season).
• Overall, South Africa’s 2017/18 total maize production is estimated at 13.5 million tonnes (commercial and non-commercial). While this is well above market expectations, it is well below last season’s record harvest of 17.6 million tonnes.
• This data reinforced the view that South Africa’s maize market will be well supplied in the 2018/19 marketing year. In other words, the expected harvest, combined with a large opening stock at the beginning of this marketing year could amount 16.4 million tonnes, well above the local maize demand of 10.7 million tonnes.
• Against this backdrop, South Africa’s 2018/19 marketing year maize exports could, at least, amount to 2.3 million tonnes, down by 4 percent from the volume exported in 2017/18.
• Last week, the country exported 75 392 tonnes of maize. This placed South Africa’s 2018/19 maize exports at 127 774 tonnes, which equates to 6 percent of the seasonal export forecast of 2.3 million tonnes.

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