Spotlight on SA maize market

• This is a data-packed week, but the most anticipated release is the national Crop Estimate Committee’s seventh production forecast for 2017/18 summer crops which is due on Tuesday afternoon. Reuters analysts’ survey shows that the Committee could revise its forecast for commercial maize production down by a percentage point from the current estimate to 13.1 million tonnes.
• This is somewhat in line with our view following reports of below average yields in some areas in the western parts of the North West province. Worth noting is that such downward revision would not negatively affect South Africa’s maize supplies in a significant way. The local maize supplies are in good shape.
• Moreover, the cool and drier weather conditions over most parts of South Africa have provided support to the harvest process in the past couple of weeks. Given the progress made thus far, which is reflected in producer deliveries data, we believe that the harvest process could be completed soon. In the week of 17 August 2018, South Africa’s 2018/19 marketing year maize producer deliveries amounted to 9.9 million tonnes, which equates to 75 percent of the estimated harvest of 13.2 million tonnes.
• In terms of trade, South Africa exported 57 141 tonnes of maize in the week of 17 August 2018, up by 61 percent from levels seen in the previous week. This placed the country’s 2018/19 maize exports at 1.1 million tonnes, which is about 44 percent of the seasonal export forecast.
• Aside from the maize market, the dam levels have improved significantly in the Western Cape province, thanks to the recent rainfall (see Figure 1 below).

Sourced: Agbiz Morning Market Viewpoint on Agri-Commodities

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