National Crop Estimate Committee’s production forecast due this week

• This is a data-packed week, but the most anticipated release is the National Crop Estimate Committee’s sixth production estimate for 2017/18 summer crops which is due on Thursday afternoon. Reuters analysts’ survey shows that the Committee could lift its estimate for commercial maize production by a percentage point from the current estimate of 13.2 million tonnes to 13.3 million tonnes.
• This is generally in line with our view. Reports from farmers show that the yields in regions that have already harvested varied between average and above average. Furthermore, there is a generally positive sentiment that other areas could also receive higher yields due to good weather conditions over the past couple of months
• The harvest process is heading towards completion in the eastern parts of the maize-belt, while the central and the western regions are somewhat delayed due to the late start of the season on the back of unfavourable weather conditions earlier in the year.
• This is reflected in the producer deliveries data, which shows that in the first 11-weeks of the 2018/19 marketing year, about 5.9 million tonnes of maize had already been delivered to commercial silos. This equates to 45 percent of the estimated harvest of 13.2 million tonnes.
• Looking ahead, the weather forecast for the next two weeks shows clear skies over the maize-belt, which should support the harvest process in the coming weeks.

Click HERE to read the full report by Wandile Sihlobo