South African Agricultural Commodities Weekly Wrap

• After writing about favourable weather conditions for the current season in the past couple of weeks, the focus is slightly shifting towards the outlook for the 2018/19 production season which commences in October.
• The International Research Institute for Climate and Society recently indicated that its estimate of the probability of an El Niño occurrence in the 2018/19 production season is over 60%, signalling a possibility of drier weather conditions next year.
• However, it is important to stress that these are still preliminary estimates, we will get clear guidance about this development in August- or September updates.
• All things considered, we believe that local grain and oilseed commodity prices will remain at fairly lower levels throughout the year due to large supplies.
• Next week, the Crop Estimate Committee will release an update of the 2017/18 grain and oilseed production forecasts.
• Apart from grain and oilseed markets, the SAFEX beef carcass market experienced a quiet week due to thinly traded volumes. The prices remained unchanged from levels seen last week.

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