“Die nuus dat ’n spesiale eenheid deur die staatspresident, meneer Jacob Zuma, ingestel is om die sake van die Departement van Landelike ontwikkeling en Grondsake te ondersoek, is verrassend maar ook lank verwag.” 

So sê Dr Theo de Jager, voorsitter van Agri Limpopo se Landbou-ontwikkelingskomitee in reaksie op die bekendmaking dat die sake van hierdie departement vanaf 2008 tot op hede ondersoek gaan word. “Die manier hoe ondersoeke na grondeisers se bewerings gedoen is, met waardasies omgegaan is en aanbiedinge en uitbetalings aan grondeienaars hanteer is, regverdig so ’n ondersoek. Die werkswyses van hierdie departement maak dit kwesbaar vir bedrog en korrupsie”.

Klik hier vir die volledige mediaverklaring.

Agri Limpopo sien met afwagting uit na die bevindinge van hierdie spesiale ondersoek eenheid. “Ons gaan egter nie dat hierdie gebeure ons ontspoor in ons soeke na ekonomies haalbare oplossings vir die grondhervormiongsvraagstukke van SA nie” sê Theo de Jager. “Dit is die afgelope maande reeds duidelik dat hierdie departement alles moontlik doen om nie die prosesse wat oplossings soek, te vinnig te laat ontwikkel nie. Verskeie partye rondom die onderhandelingstafel het reeds hul kommer hieroor uitgespreek.

The post Spesiale ondersoek na Departement Grondsake ingestel. appeared first on Agri Limpopo.

“The time has come for radicalism in all its forms to be eradicated, with South African citizens being allowed to experience freedom within a de-radicalised society as offered by the Constitution.”

“Recently the media have reported on various racist incidents that are not conducive to nation building, but instead divide communities,” said Agri SA President Johannes Möller.

“Our country and its people need a society where their right to life is respected and where all people are deemed equally important. I call today on all South Africans to condemn violent crime and racism in all its forms and, in community context, to reach out to make the country a better place where everyone can live together in peace and harmony, said Möller”.

Click here to read more.

The post No place for radicalism in South Africa. appeared first on Agri Limpopo.

The planting activity for the 2017/18 production season is underway in the summer rainfall areas of the country. South African farmers intend to increase the total area plantings by 1% from the 2016/17 production season to 4.03 million hectares. The optimal planting window for maize in the eastern parts of the country closes in mid-November. The western areas only begin planting maize in mid-November, with the optimal planting window closing at the end of December. For oilseeds, the optimal planting window closes in early January.

As we set out in our previous reports, there is optimism regarding the 2017/18 production season. The South African Weather Service suggests that the summer crop growing areas of the country could receive above normal rainfall between November 2017 and February 2018, which will benefit the crops.

The combine harvester sales were up five folds from the previous month and 11% y/y, with 20 units sold in October 2017 (Chart 1). This is in line with an increase in activity in winter crop growing areas as harvest process commences, particularly wheat growing areas of the Western Cape province.

Looking ahead – We expect the tractor sales to soften in the near term as summer grain and oilseed planting process approaches the completion stages. The combine harvesters’ sales could remain solid over the near term as winter crop harvest process continues. An important factor to monitor in the long term is the cost of servicing the farm debt as that would have direct implications on the agricultural machinery sales.

Note: In 2016, South Africa’s total farm debt was at R144.9 billion, which is a record level in a database starting from 1980.

Click below to read more recent reports by Wandile Sihlobo.

UPDATE SA tractor sales at a highest level in 20 months

The post UPDATE: SA tractor sales at the highest level in 20 months appeared first on Agri Limpopo.

4 December 2017

 All stakeholders in the agricultural sector must work together to combat the unacceptable level of crime farm communities are facing, especially during the festive season. On November 2, a group of concerned stakeholders came together in Pretoria to share ideas on how to tackle rural safety. During this meeting, the Agri Sector Unity Forum (Asuf) was tasked with forming an inclusive subcommittee to facilitate coordinated efforts between farming communities, service providers and other stakeholders to combat crime. Asuf is an inclusive, representative body comprising of Agri SA, the African Farmers’ Union (Afasa), the National African Farmers’ Union (Nafu) and the TAU SA.

 Accordingly, Asuf recently held a meeting in Centurion to discuss the safety of all farmers, farm workers and rural communities.  Japie Grobler, chairperson of Asuf, called on all farmers and farm workers to work closely with the police and their neighbours to bring an end to crime and to ensure a safe environment for everyone. Grobler also called on the public to financially support the Agri Securitas Trust Fund in their efforts to secure farming communities.

 Farmer unions need cameras, drones, two-way radios and other technologies to help them to advance the safety of farming communities. Over the years, Agri Securitas has played a huge role in delivering a range of practical interventions to advance the safety of farmers and farm workers.

 “Criminals pose a huge threat to food security and ultimately socio-economic stability,” says Grobler. “Extra precaution, high levels of vigilance and the establishment of collaborative networks at grass roots level between farmers and the police and amongst farmers are therefore of critical importance – especially during the festive period.”

 Grobler commends the establishment of rural safety partnerships between various organised agricultural organisations in certain provinces and their efforts to stop crime and apprehend criminals. He welcomes the efforts by a wide array of stakeholders to bring about a safe rural environment within the ambit of the law.

 Regardless of their farm output, ethnicity or gender, farmers and farm workers are continuously targeted by unscrupulous criminals. Criminals have no regard for the human and constitutional rights of farmers and their workers, their contribution to food security, job creation and the economic advancement of local communities.

 The levels of crime on farms in South Africa are above international averages. The direct and indirect costs of crime to individuals, families, neighbourhoods, business, government and the economy pose a serious threat to food security and socio-economic stability. It causes a great financial loss, breakdown of trust relationships between local communities and instigates fear. Victims of crime also live with untold trauma and lasting physical and psychological scars.

 The situation has become untenable. Criminals become more brazen by the day. Not only do they target and raid livestock, farm produce and infrastructure of commercial, emerging and subsistence farmers, but they are also brutalising and killing farmers, their family members and farm workers. In some instances, livestock is brutalised and maimed while still alive.

Asuf plans on arranging meetings with the Minister of Police and Cabinet in due course and will keep the public informed about the outcomes of these meetings and the actions that will follow.

Issued by Agri SA, Directorate:  Corporate Liaison on behalf of Asuf

Enquiries

Mr Japie Grobler, Chairperson, Asuf, 0828258018

Christo van der Rheede, Secretariat Asuf, 012-643 3400 of 083 380 3492

The post Asuf Media Release: Rural safety this festive season appeared first on Agri Limpopo.

To everyone who takes a bit of time to read what we write, thank you. Best wishes for 2018.

Highlights in today’s morning note

South Africa’s average dam levels: week ended 01 January 2018 (last year’s figures in brackets – 01 January 2017)

Source: Department of Water and Sanitation and Agbiz Research

Weather:

 While temperatures could rise to levels above 26 degrees Celsius at the start of this week, there is a possibility of light rainfall in most parts of the country within the next eight days (see figure 1 – attached report). However, this will not be sufficient to significantly improve soil moisture in summer crop producing areas. Meanwhile, the Northern Cape and Western Cape provinces might remain dry and warm over the observed period.

Maize:

 The expectations of rainfall in the latter part of 2017 did not materialise in most areas, particularly the western regions. As result, the maize planting process has not yet been completed in some areas. Moreover, the areas that managed to plant on time are currently experiencing heat stress, but no major damage reported thus far.

Farmers planned to plant 2.47 million hectares of maize this season, which is 6% lower than the 2016/17 production season. About 56% of the area is set to be for white maize, with 44% for yellow maize. However, this might change due to the aforementioned delays in planting in the western regions of the country. Overall, there will be more clarity when the National Crop Estimate Committee releases its estimates on 30 January 2018.

South Africa’s maize supplies are still solid. SAGIS recently reported that the country’s maize stocks were at 8.2 million tonnes in November 2017, which is twice the volume seen in the same period in 2016. This notable uptick is mainly due to a record commercial maize production of 16.74 million tonnes in the 2016/17 season.

From a trade perspective, South Africa exported 64 206 tonnes of maize in the weeks of 09 to 29 December 2017. The leading buyer was Japan with a share of 56%, all yellow maize. This placed South Africa’s 2017/18 total maize export volume at 1.7 million tonnes, which equates to 77% of the season’s export forecast of 2.2 million tonnes.

Wheat:

In December 2017, the National Crop Estimate Committee revised its 2017 wheat production estimates down by 7% from the previous month to 1.48 million tonnes. This is 23% lower than the previous season’s crop. The downward revision was mainly due to disappointing yields in the Western Cape and Free State provinces, on the back of unfavourable weather conditions. The sixth production estimates for 2017 wheat will be released on 30 January 2018.

Overall, this implies that South Africa will have to import at least 1.80 million tonnes of wheat in the 2017/18 marketing year in order to fulfil the domestic needs. This is almost double the previous marketing year’s imports of 934 765 tonnes.

South Africa imported 48 432 tonnes of wheat in the weeks of 09 to 29 December 2017. About 66% came from Russia and 34% from Argentina. This placed 2017/18 marketing year’s wheat imports at 625 073 tonnes, which equates to 35% of the seasonal import forecast of 1.80 million tonnes (This is under the assumption that domestic production will reach 1.48 million tonnes).  

Sunflower seed:

The expectations of heavy rainfall in the summer crop growing areas of South Africa did not materialise in most areas during the festive season, particularly the western parts of the country. As a result, the sunflower seed planting process has somewhat been delayed, and the areas that have planted continue to experienced heat stress which could possibly damage the crops.

The South African farmers intended to plant 665 500 hectares of sunflower seed in the 2017/18 production season, up by 5% from the previous season. Given the aforementioned realities, this target is unlikely to be achieved. The National Crop Estimate Committee will release the preliminary area planted estimates on the 30th of January 2018.

Aside from this, the country still has large supplies from the 2016/17 production season. South Africa’s sunflower seed ending stocks were recorded at 374 117 tonnes in November 2017, down by 20% from the previous month, but up by 32% from the corresponding period last year.

In terms of trade, South Africa exported 42 tonnes of sunflower seed to Namibia in November 2017, which is well above the previous month’s exports of a mere one tonne. This brought the country’s 2017/18 sunflower seed exports to 168 tonnes – all went to regional markets, namely; Botswana, Namibia and Swaziland.

Also worth noting is that sunflower seed consumption (crushed oil and cake) declined by 3% month-on-month to 92 650 tonnes in November 2017. However, this is 59% higher than the volume utilised in November 2016.

Soybeans:

Unlike other crops, such as maize and sunflower seed, most soybean growing areas of the country managed to plant on time, with the exception of few areas in the western parts of the country which experienced delays due to dryness. The expected rainfall at the end of 2017 did not materialise in some regions, particularly the western areas, where soil moisture is still low.

The South African farmers planned to plant an area of 720 000 hectares in the 2017/18 production season. However, the current warm weather conditions could hamper this target. That said, there will be more clarity when the National Crop Estimate Committee releases its preliminary area planted data at the end of this month.

Apart from that, South Africa’s soybean consumption (crushed oil and cake) was reported at 95 433 tonnes in November 2017, up by 51% from the previous month, and 57% from November 2016.  Also worth noting is that the soybean ending stocks were at 589 106 tonnes in November 2017, down by 15% from the previous month, but double the volume seen in November 2016 due to a large harvest in 2016/17 production season.

From a trade perspective, the large soybean harvest of 1.32 million tonnes received in 2016/17 production season implies that South Africa could receive minimal imports in the 2017/18 marketing year. This is a remarkable improvement following imports of 271 098 tonnes in the previous marketing year.

The country imported 1 324 tonnes of soybean in November 2017. About 78% of this came from Zambia and the balance from Malawi. This placed South Africa’s 2017/18 soybean imports to 26 392 tonnes, which equals to 94% of the seasonal import forecast of 28 000 tonnes.

RSA Potatoes:

After a positive start this year, the South African potatoes price came under pressure in Friday’s trade session, down by 2% from the previous day, closing at R42.65 per pocket (10kg). These losses were mainly underpinned by large stocks of 776 791 pockets (10kg bag) at the beginning of the trading session.

In addition, during the session, the market saw an uptick in deliveries as harvest activity picks up after a quiet period during the Christmas holidays. This led to a 6% increase in daily stocks to 824 387 pockets (10kg bag).

RSA Fruit:

After a wobbly performance in the latter part of 2017, the fruit market started the year again on a mixed footing driven by relatively lower stocks. The prices of bananas and oranges were up by 9% and 13% from the previous day, closing at R6.78 per kilogram and R7.04 per kilogram, respectively. This was partially due to lower stocks of 289 320 tonnes of bananas and 21 088 tonnes of oranges.

Meanwhile, the price of apples was down by 2% from the previous day, closing at R8.68 per kilogram. This followed an uptick in daily stocks to 135 710 tonnes.

SAFEX beef carcass:

The SAFEX beef carcass market started the year on a quiet footing with the price flat at R44.00 per kilogram.  However, this could differ from the physical market which continues to show solid activity and volumes.

In October 2017, South African farmers slaughtered 219 393 head of cattle, up by 3% from the previous month, but 7% lower compared to October 2016. The Red Meat Levy Admin will release an update of the cattle slaughtering data later this month, and that will probably show an uptick due to strong festive season demand.

Click below to read more reports by Wandile Sihlobo

Agbiz Morning Market Viewpoint on Agri-Commodities 08 January 2018

The post Agbiz Morning Market Viewpoint on Agri-Commodities: 08 January 2018 appeared first on Agri Limpopo.

 According to a recent media release, experts expect the fall armyworm (FAW) to spread across South Africa, with the possible exception of the Western Cape province. The report indicates that FAW infestations have been detected throughout Limpopo Province’s five districts, parts of Mpumalanga as well as the Eastern Cape.

The Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (DAFF) has requested that farmers and agricultural organisations sharpen their monitoring and reporting efforts on the occurrence of this pest throughout the country.

Daily and weekly reports have to be submitted to DAFF for all new areas where FAW is found.

Agri SA welcomes the timeous actions being taken by DAFF, including its making pesticides available to combat the spread of this pest. Agri SA wishes to alert farmers that the application of chemicals must be carried out in consultation with chemical representatives.

Although this fall armyworm attacks mostly maize plants, it may occasionally attack cotton, wheat, sorghum, soybeans, potatoes and groundnuts.  It is therefore also important to scout these crops for damage and the presence of the invasive species.

Dan Kriek, President of Agri SA, thanked Grain SA and other role-players who monitor the situation on behalf of the grain industry. 

Issued by Agri SA, Directorate:  Corporate Liaison

Enquiries

Mr Dan Kriek, President Agri SA, 082 944 0566

Mr Janse Rabie, Head of Natural Resources, Agri SA, 076 451 9601

The post Mediaverklaring / Media Release appeared first on Agri Limpopo.

“Agri SA therefore wholeheartedly supports the economic solutions outlined in the State of the Nation Address to turn the country around and to create a future of hope, social cohesion and prosperity for all” Dan Kriek, President of Agri SA stated.

Significant emphasis was placed on the need to create jobs, advancing transformation and establishing an ethical, caring and service orientated state fraternity at municipal level, provincial and national level. Agri SA also welcomes the announcement to clamp down on corruption in state departments as well as the private sector.

We enthusiastically applaud the practical steps outlined to ensure policy certainty, reduce government departments, grow the local economy, attract investments, boost the manufacturing sector and grow the small business environment, Kriek added.

The establishment of local economic zones, the review of SARS and state-owned enterprises, appointment of the right people as well as implementing a wide range of social and economic interventions in the small business sector, agriculture, mining, tourism and other sectors are also welcomed. Agri SA pledges its co-operation to ensure the achievement of all the outcomes related to these plans.

Prioritising the economy and the role of entrepreneurs was also a key feature of the address. Agri SA, therefore, calls on the President to seize the opportunity and exploit the goodwill on offer from local and international investors. The emphasis on promoting partnerships between business, labour, government and the public is to be welcomed as well as the plans outlined to develop our young people.

However, such a bold vision cannot be tarnished by excluding anyone or a particular community. The plans announced by the President should be inclusive of all the people of South Africa regardless of race, colour, religious creed, national origin, ancestry, sex, sexual orientation, age or physical constraints.

The National Constitution demands of all of us to build a united and non-racial society and to nurture the talent and honour the contribution of all our people. South Africa remains a highly divided nation and it is through honouring the dignity of every South African, inclusivity and mutual respect that this divide can be bridged.

However, Agri SA is highly concerned with the contradictory statements related to acknowledging agriculture as the biggest contributor the past quarters in terms of economic growth and job creation, whilst in the same breath calling for the expropriation of land without compensation. Not only does it subvert the letter and spirit of Section 25 of our National Constitution, but it also entrenches the perception that the governing party has no regard for the founding principles of our newly founded democracy.

The question also remains: From whom will land be expropriated and to whom will it be given? Such populist statements will do more harm than good and contradicts the underlying theme of the State of the Nation Address to grow the sector through investment to unleash its fullest potential.

Agri SA, therefore, appeals to the President to rather desist from such populist rhetoric and to engage with the commercial agricultural industry to find amicable solutions to the land question.

Agri SA is developing its own land transformation plan that will be commercially driven and will aim to increase national production significantly without having to change the constitution – Omri van Zyl (Executive Director) added.

“Undermining the notion of private ownership and still expecting the private sector to enthusiastically embrace partnerships between themselves and the state will not happen” van Zyl added.

It is through win-win partnerships and policy certainty that the vision of a safe, productive and content South African society can be realised.   

 Issued by Agri SA, Directorate:  Corporate Liaison

Enquiries

Mr Dan Kriek, President Agri SA, 082 944 0566

Mr Omri van Zyl, Executive Director, Agri SA, 082 417 5724

The post Agri SA Media Release: State of Nation Address appeared first on Agri Limpopo.

Dr Marinda Visser, manager of Grain SA’s Research and Policy Centre, said reports had been received of the pest on sunflower but these had not yet been confirmed in a laboratory.

She said that Grain SA had appointed the company Crop Watch to conduct detection and surveillance of FAW.

“It’s better to receive the information earlier rather than later,” she said, adding that the pest was under control in South Africa and the country was “not in crisis mode”.

Manager of early warning systems at the Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, Jan-Hendrik Venter, confirmed that the department had received information from a reputable organisation of a possible detection of FAW on sunflower.

“But we haven’t received an official report yet,” he said.

He said the FAW steering committee met monthly and had not felt the need to meet more frequently.

“There are really very few cases this year. We know that it’s all over in Limpopo but this was something we predicted because it doesn’t get cold enough to kill it off.”

He said that the committee expected that from now on, FAW would always be present in areas such as Limpopo, KwaZulu-Natal and Mpumalanga.

“So we mustn’t get a fright every time we hear that FAW has been found in Limpopo,” he said.

Venter said there had been very few sightings in the Free State and North West to date, but the pest had been seen in Gauteng and the Eastern Cape.

He said there could be a number of reasons for the lower number of cases in these two provinces. These could include the longer-lasting drought, a smaller maize crop, the fact that chemicals had been registered, and proactive management by farmers.

“They know about the worm. They scout and spray earlier,” he said.

Venter said that permits were now available for the use of pheromone traps for early detection at farm level.

He added that in South Africa, the pest seemed to prefer to lay its eggs on maize or sorghum and not sunflower.

He urged farmers continue scouting, and report any suspected sightings to him on 012 319 6384 or by e-mail at JanHendrikV@daff.gov.za.

Source: Farmer’s Weekly

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Maize:

A large part of the South African maize belt started this week with dry and cool weather conditions, with light and scattered showers only in a couple of regions within Mpumalanga province. The areas that are somewhat moisture-stressed following dryness in the past few days could soon see some relief, as the weather forecasts for the next two weeks show a possibility of rainfall of over 30 millimetres.

Last week’s maize exports were again disappointing. South Africa exported 14 010 tonnes, down by 5 percent from the volume exported in the week of 02 March 2018. About 68 percent of these exports were white maize, with 32 percent being yellow maize. This placed South Africa’s 2017/18 maize marketing year exports at 2.0 million tonnes, which equates to 83 percent of the season’s export forecast of 2.4 million tonnes.

Within the region, the 2017/18 maize production season started on a bad footing in Zimbabwe with limited soil moisture in the latter part of December 2017 into the start of 2018. But, at the beginning of last month, the maize producing regions received good showers which improved soil moisture and benefited the crop.

The reports we are getting from analysts on the ground in the country point to a possibility of average yields in most areas, which is well below the 2016/17 production season’s bumper harvest of 2.2 million tonnes. We will closely monitor the developments in the coming weeks as this could have implications on regional maize demand. In the case of South Africa, these developments will have implication on export activity for the 2018/19 marketing year which starts in May 2018.

Wheat:

As highlighted in yesterday’s note, South Africa’s wheat market is currently off-season, and therefore, most activity is in import trading. However, the recent developments in the major wheat production province, Western Cape, are worth mentioning. The weather charts for the next two weeks show a possibility of light showers of between 16 and 20 millimetres across the coastal areas of the province.

While a welcome development, this will nonetheless not make a meaningful improvement on dam levels which are critically low, estimated at 20 percent in the week of 05 March 2018, down by 10 percentage points from the corresponding period last year.

There are no new developments on the wheat import tariff. The newly calculated trigger rate is R394.84 per tonne, down by 45 percent from the current active level. This new rate will only be applicable after its publication on the government gazette. The timeframe for this process is unclear, but previous adjustments took more than three weeks.

With that said, the import activity has slowed. South Africa imported 55 958 tonnes in the week ending 09 March 2018, down by 46 percent from the previous week. About 51 percent came from Romania, 31 percent from Latvia and 18 percent from Argentina. This placed 2017/18 marketing year’s wheat imports at 1.14 tonnes, which equates to 62 percent of the seasonal import forecast of 1.85 million tonnes.

Soybeans:

The soybean crop is generally in good condition with expectations of above-average yields in some areas. This supports the National Crop Estimates Committee’s view of a new record level of 1.4 million tonnes this season, up by 5 percent from the 2016/17 production season.

Although soil moisture is in good condition, the crop could still benefit from additional rainfall, especially the late planted areas. The expected showers have not yet materialised in most areas. It is only areas around Graskop, Middelburg, Morgenzon, Witbank and Wonderfontein that received light showers on Monday night.

The next two weeks, however, promise the possibility of rainfall of over 50 millimetres in soybean growing regions of the country . This should further improve soil moisture and benefit the crop.

From a demand front, the 2017/18 soybean imports are estimated at 151 million tonnes, up by 5 percent from the previous season. China, the EU, Japan and Mexico are set to be the key buys. China alone accounts for two-thirds of global soybean imports. This is driven by growing demand from the animal feed industry.

Sunflower seed:

The weather remains a primary focus in the sunflower seed market as the crop is still at its early stages of development. The expected rainfall has not yet materialised in most areas of the country. However, the crop that is slightly moisture-stressed following dryness in the past few days should soon recover as weather conditions promise rainfall within the next two weeks.

As highlighted in our previous notes, the medium-term weather forecast promises a possibility of above normal rainfall in summer crop growing areas of South Africa between this month and May 2018. This should provide sufficient moisture for crop development throughout the season.

In the global market – The 2017/18 sunflower seed harvest process is not yet complete in Russia. According to SUNSEEDMAN, about 7 percent of the area planting is yet to be harvested. The USDA placed Russia’s 2017/18 sunflower seed production at 10.4 million tonnes, down by 5 percent from the previous day.

In Argentina, the sunflower seed harvest process is underway but could slow within the next few days due to expected rainfall. On 13 March 2018, about 45% of this season’s crop had already been harvested. The USDA forecasts the country’s 2017/18 sunflower seed crop at 3.6 million tonnes, up by 6 percent year-on-year.

RSA Potatoes:

The potatoes market had a good run in yesterday’s trade session underpinned by lower stocks of 644 269 pockets (10kg bag) at the start of the session. The price was up by 7 percent from the previous day, closing at R35.51 per pocket (10kg).

However, in yesterday’s trading session, the market saw an uptick in deliveries as harvest activity picked up after a quiet period in the weekend. This led to a 21 percent increase in daily stocks to 780 197 pockets (10kg bag).

RSA fruit:

The fruit market ended yesterday’s session on a mixed footing. The apples and bananas market managed to claw back the recent losses with the prices up by 11 percent and 12 percent from the previous day, closing at R8.12 and R8.06 per kilogram, respectively. These gains followed a respective decline in daily stocks of apples and bananas to 183 000 tonnes and 237 000 tonnes.

Meanwhile, the price of oranges experienced extended losses of 29 percent from the previous day and settled at R5.47 per kilogram. We maintain that this will be short-lived because of fairly lower stock of 55 000 tonnes, compared to levels of over 70 000 tonnes in the past few days.

Click below for the full report by Wandile Sihlobo:

Agbiz Morning Market Viewpoint on Agri-Commodities 14 March 2018

The post Soybean crop expectations of above-average yields in some areas appeared first on Agri Limpopo.

The weather remains a key focus in the domestic maize market as the crop is still at its growing stages. The soil moisture has generally improved across the maize belt following rainfall in the past few weeks. But, follow up rainfall is needed given that the crop has been moisture-stressed in the western parts of the country following dryness in the past few days.

Fortunately, the near term weather forecasts show signs of good rainfall across the maize belt within the next two weeks. If this materialises, the maize crop will remain in good shape, which increases a chance of good yields this season .

While the focus is on the new production season, some farmers continue to deliver old season maize to commercial silos. The total maize deliveries were reported at 13 287 tonnes in the week ending 09 March 2018, well above the previous week’s deliveries of 13 287 tonnes. About 60 percent of this was yellow maize, with 40 percent being white maize. Overall, South Africa’s 2017/18 marketing year’s total maize deliveries for “week 1 to 45” currently stand at 15.39 million tonnes. Of this total, 59 percent is white maize with 41 percent being yellow maize.

Wheat:

Although the winter wheat growing season will only start in the next two months or so, the recent developments on the Western Cape weather front are worth highlighting. The weather charts currently show a possibility of light rainfall within the next two weeks across the coastal areas of the province.

This is a welcome development following weeks of dryness, but will not make a meaningful improvement on dam levels which are critically low, estimated at 20 percent in the week of 12 March 2018, unchanged from the previous week, but down by 9 percentage points from the corresponding period last year.

The volumes of wheat recently delivered to commercial silos declined significantly from levels seen the previous weeks. This mirrors the reduction in activity in the farms after the completion of the harvest process .

About 3 519 tonnes of wheat were delivered to commercial silos in the week ending 09 March 2018. This is up by 24 percent from the volume delivered the previous week, but well below the volumes delivered in the previous months when the harvest process was at its peak. Overall, this placed South Africa’s winter wheat producer deliveries for “week 1 to 23” of the 2017/18 marketing year at 1.46 million tonnes.

Soybeans:

This week the soybean growing areas were dry and cool so far, with light showers on Tuesday night only which were concentrated in areas around Lydenburg, Middelburg, Morgenzon, Witbank and Wonderfontein. With that said, this is not a greater concern as there is still a fair amount of soil moisture.

Moreover, the next two weeks promise the possibility of good rainfall which should further improve soil moisture. As noted in yesterday’s note, these weather developments support the Crop Estimates Committee’s view of a new record level of 1.4 million tonnes this season, up by 5 percent from the 2016/17 production season.

In global markets – There is speculation in the market that China’s soybean demand could partially shift from the US to South America owing to the recent political developments regarding US trade policy. China is the world’s leading importer of soybeans with a share of 64% in 2017/18 global soybean imports of 151 million tonnes.

In the past five years, the US has been one of the key suppliers of soybeans to China accounting for nearly 40% share of that market, according to data from Trade Map. Brazil and Argentina were amongst the key suppliers, hence the talks in the market point to a possible increase in South America’s share at the expense of the US in the Chinese soybean market over the coming years.

Sunflower seed:

The expected rainfall has not yet materialised in most areas of the country. Although not an immediate concern, it is worth noting that some crops in the western parts of the North West and Free State provinces are slightly moisture-stressed and urgently need rainfall.

There is hope however that the expected rainfall within the next eight days could offer a bit of relief. Fortunately, the medium-term forecasts promise a possibility of above normal rainfall in summer crop growing areas of South Africa between this month and May 2018 which should provide sufficient moisture for crop development throughout the season .

In the global market – The warm weather conditions in Argentina which have been disrupting the soybean crops have had a slightly positive impact on sunflowers, not by increasing yields but boosting the harvest process. Data from SUNSEEDMAN shows that on 14 March 2018, about 50% of this season’s Argentinian sunflower seed crop had already been harvested. The USDA forecasts the country’s 2017/18 sunflower seed crop at 3.6 million tonnes, up by 6 percent year-on-year.

RSA Potatoes:

After experiencing a good run at the start of the week, the potatoes market pulled back in yesterday’s trade session and settled in negative territory due to a large stock of 780 197 pockets (10kg bag) at the start of the session. The price was up by 9 percent from the previous day, closing at R32.40 per pocket (10kg).

In yesterday’s trading session, the market saw an uptick in deliveries on the back of ongoing harvest activity. This led to a 24 percent increase in daily stocks to 970 516 pockets (10kg bag).

RSA fruit:

The fruit market has been quite wobbly this week. The gains that were seen at the start of the week were again shaved off in yesterday’s session due to an uptick in daily stock levels. The prices of apples and bananas were down by down by 15 percent and 6 percent from the previous day, closing at R6.91 and R7.58 per kilogram, respectively.

Surprisingly, the price of oranges experienced extended losses of 17 percent from the previous day and settled at R4.54 per kilogram. We maintain that this will be short-lived because of fairly lower stock of 64 000 tonnes, compared to levels of over 70 000 tonnes in the past few days.

Full report by Wandile Sihlobo available below.

Agbiz Morning Market Viewpoint on Agri-Commodities 15 March 2018

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