Agri Limpopo is opgewonde oor die nuwe aanslag wat President Cyril Ramaphosa op die strukturele ekonomiese probleme soos armoede, werkloosheid en ‘n lae investeringsaptyt in Suid Afrika het, en is daartoe verbind om met sy strewe tot ekonomiese groei saam te werk.

Dit lyk en klink allerweë of hy bereid is om die sweep te klap teen korrupsie, nepotisme en wanadministrasie, wat Limpopo oor die afgelope dekade gekniehalter het.

Vanwee die praktyk van kaderoptplooiïng lê die wortels van hierdie probleme diep in die samestelling van bykans elke departement, en dit sal meer as net die regte uitsprake kos om daarvan ontslae te raak.

Dit is steeds ‘n raaisel hoe die ANC hoop om investering, werkskepping, ekonomiese groei en verhoogde produksie in die landbousektor te stimuleer met ‘n beleid van onteiening sonder vergoeding! Kapitaal is so skugter soos ‘n koedoe, en as dit skrik, hardloop dit weg. Hierdie beleid van die ANC skep juis die onsekerheid wat investering en groei inhibeer.

Hoewel dit deur ‘n resolusie en meerderheidstem die amptelike beleid van die ANC geword het, is die Nasionale Ontwikkelingsplan op dieselfde wyse in 2012 in Mangaung eenparig as ANC beleid aanvaar. Hierdie plan is nie met onteiening sonder vergoeding versoenbaar nie, en die grondhervormingsplan in Hoofstuk 6 daarvan is sedert 2012 nooit met implementeringsprogramme of ‘n begroting ondersteun nie.

President Ramaphosa was destyds die voorsitter van die Nasionale Beplanningskommissie wat die plan geformuleer het, en is bewus van talle pogings wat deur privaatsektorbelanghebbendes soos Agri Limpopo, landboubesighede, Landbank, ander banke en buitelandse investeerders geloods is om die Hoofstuk 6-plan te laat werk.

Die vennootskapgebasseerde grondhervormingsmodel van die NOP is steeds die enigste plan wat wye steun onder politieke partye en die privaatsektor geniet, en tot dusver met ‘n 100% suksessyfer geïmplementeer is. Dit maak onteiening sonder vergoeding oorbodig en sinneloos.

Agri Limpopo doen weereens ‘n beroep op President Ramaphosa om landbouleiers oor ‘n wye spektrum te betrek by gesprekke oor die beste manier om die landbousektor te ontwikkel in SA.

Navrae:
Dr Theo de Jager – Agri Limpopo Landbou-ontwikkelingskomitee 082 332 2110
Willem van Jaarsveld HUB agri Limpopo 082 451 7913

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• The reduction in employment covered a number of provinces, but the case of the Western Cape province came as no surprise as the provincial government and the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy study already signalled a possibility of 30 230 agricultural job losses in the province this year due to drought. In the first quarter of 2018, the Western Cape’s agricultural employment declined by 3% y/y. With that said, the province remains a leading agricultural employer, accounting for a 25% share in the national agricultural labour market.
• Agricultural employment in KwaZulu Natal, Gauteng, Limpopo, North West and Mpumalanga provinces declined 19% y/y, 19% y/y, 7% y/y, 6% y/y and 3% y/y, respectively. Meanwhile, the Free State, Eastern and Northern Cape provinces saw job gains of 31% y/y, 4% y/y and 3% y/y, respectively (see Chart 2).
• In terms of sub-sector performance, the reduction in annual employment was recorded in almost all sub-sectors with the exception of forestry, logging and related services (see Chart 3).
• Looking ahead – The effects of the Western Cape province’s drought combined with the reduced area plantings in the summer crop growing regions of the country could potentially weaken the performance of the agricultural labour market in the coming quarters.
• In terms of policy development, the business sector has generally accepted the impending introduction of the National Minimum Wage, but it will affect some sub-sectors within the agricultural sector more than others depending on the labour intensity and average labour skill required. For example, the horticultural sector is one of the likely sub-sectors to be impacted by the introduction of the National Minimum Wage as it is labour intensive relative to other sub-sectors.

Read the full report by Wandile Sihlobo below:

SA agricultural employment down by 3% year on year in Q1, 2018

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The South African tractor sales reached 501 units last month, well above our expectations of 444 units. This represents a 2% y/y uptick, which is relatively softer than April 2018 growth rate of 15% y/y, due to base effects. On average, 24 tractors were sold a day last month, compared to 23 tractors a day in May 2017. This was largely driven by increased activity in winter crop planting provinces of the country. The planting activity is now over in most provinces, which means tractor sales could soften in the near term.

The uptick in tractor sales was again unsurprising as May 2018 was a busy month with winter crop planting activity underway. Moreover, the fact that farmers intended to increase the winter wheat plantings by a percentage point from last year to 674 700 hectares, might have also contributed to the increase in a number of tractors sold last month. However, we believe that the sales could soften in June 2018 due to reduced activity in the fields and probably reach levels of 471 units.

The combine harvester sales were down by 33% y/y, with only 16 units sold in May 2018, which is the lowest sales figure for the corresponding month since 2015. The decline could be a temporally blip due to delayed harvest activity on the back of a late start of the season in most summer crop growing areas.

Looking ahead, we believe that tractor sale could soften during the winter season, but gain traction again around spring season ahead of 2018/19 summer crop planting period. Meanwhile, the combine harvester sales could increase in the next couple of months as summer crop harvest process commences in most parts of the country and yields expected to be relatively higher for most crops such as maize, soybeans and sunflower seed.

Click HERE to read the full report by Wandile Sihlobo

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The Western Cape and Free State are key wheat producing provinces in South Africa, accounting for 83 percent of the estimated area of 500 500 hectares for the 2018/19 production season.

The planting activity is still at its initial stages in the Free State province but should gain momentum within the next couple of weeks. The winter wheat crop in the Free State province is produced in both dryland and irrigation areas. Fortunately, the summer rainfall has improved soil moisture levels across the province which bodes well for the new season. Moreover, the irrigation areas could also have a good season as dams are almost at full capacity across the province (see Map below for details on dam levels).

As indicated in yesterday’s note, the planting activity is complete in Western Cape province. The newly emerged crop in areas that planted early in the season, Swartland and Overberg regions, is in good condition, following good showers in the past couple of days. This week could also bring rainfall in the province, but will most likely be concentrated in areas around Helderberg, Swartland, Winelands and western parts of Overberg. This means that there could also be minimal improvements in provincial dam levels, which averaged 24 percent on 04 June 2016, up by 6 percentage points from the corresponding period last year.

While the forecast rainfall is a welcome development which will slightly improve topsoil moisture, the Western Cape province still needs intense and persistent rainfall in order to sufficiently improve subsoil moisture and support the wheat crop in the coming months. Fortunately, there is a possibility of such rainfall within between this month and August 2018 .

Aside from the domestic production developments, the focus today will be on the USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. Last month, the agency placed 2018/19 global wheat production estimate at 748 million tonnes, down by a percentage point from the previous season. The reduction in production was linked to expectations of a relatively lower harvest in the EU, Ukraine, India and Russia.

Click HERE to read the full report by Wandile Sihlobo

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Click HERE to read the full report by Wandile Sihlobo

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About 67 percent of this was yellow maize, with 33 percent being white maize. We made this point last week, but it is worth restating as the data hasn’t changed much. The fact that a large share of maize delivered to commercial silos is yellow shows that the harvest activity is gaining ground mainly in the early planted areas in the eastern parts of the country (areas that predominantly produce yellow maize).

The total maize deliveries for the first six weeks of the 2018/19 marketing year are estimated at 1.4 million tonnes.

More maize will be delivered in the coming weeks as the expected cool and drier weather conditions within the next two weeks could provide conducive conditions for the harvest activity, particularly in the early planted areas in the eastern and central parts of the South Africa maize-belt.

Click HERE to read the full report by Wandile Sihlobo

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The winter wheat crop is in good condition in the Swartland region, thanks to recent rainfall. In fact, towards the end of last week, the Swartland region received between 20 and 30 millimetres of rainfall, which bodes well with the new season crop. The crop in Overberg region is also in fair condition following good showers in the past couple of weeks. Towards the end of last week, the region received light showers of about 10 millimetres. However, the Southern Cape region has not received notable rainfall since the start of the season and the recently emerged winter wheat crop is not in good shape.

The weather forecast this week promises a possibility of light showers of between 16 and 40 millimetres across most parts of the Western Cape province, which should support crops in the near term. With that said, the subsoil moisture levels are still low across the province due to the recent drought. The province needs intense and persistent rainfall in order to show notable improvements.

Elsewhere, the winter wheat planting activity is still at initial stages in other provinces. The Free State province, which is the second largest wheat producer after the Western Cape, has recently started its planting activity and should gain momentum within the next couple of weeks. The winter wheat crop in the province is produced in both dryland and irrigation areas. The summer rainfall has improved soil moisture levels across the province which bodes well for the new season crop. Furthermore, the irrigation areas could have a good season as dams are almost at full capacity across the province (see Map below).

Click HERE to read the full report by Wandile Sihlobo

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At this time of the year, the tractor sales are typically supported by large purchases by grain farmers, but this time around there were also buyers from the horticulture industry, as well as a couple of government tenders. Moreover, the current competitive pricing in the market, as new players continue to enter the South African agricultural machinery industry, also boosted the tractor sales. Drawing from the historical data, August 2018 tractor sales could potentially increase to roughly 560 units as the new summer crop season approaches.

The combine harvester sales slowed, as the majority of grains such as soybeans and sunflower seed have already been harvested, with only maize crop still being harvested in a number of provinces. Furthermore, this season’s commercial maize crop of 13.2 million tonnes is well below the 2016/17 season harvest of 16.8 million tonnes, which partially explains the annual decline in harvester sales in July 2018.

Looking ahead, we are fairly optimistic about tractor sales in the near term, but the exchange rate and agricultural commodity prices are important factors to monitor which could potentially influence farmers’ purchasing decisions. The harvester sales will most likely remain at lower levels in the near term but potentially recover towards the end of the year when the winter crop harvest process begins.

Click HERE to read the full report by Wandile Sihlobo

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Sourced: Agbiz Morning Market Viewpoint on Agri-Commodities

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Sourced: Weekly wrap, Agribusiness Research

Click HERE for full report. 

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