RSA Potatoes:

The South African potatoes market saw additional gains in yesterday’s trade session with the price up by 5% from the previous day, closing at R29.82 per 10kg bag. These gains were on the back of lower stocks of 826 523 bags (10kg bags) at the start of the session.

Maize:

South African maize exports fell by 43% in the week ending 28 July 2017 from the previous one and eased at 87 577 tonnes. This was mainly due to a decline in activity in the Kenyan market. About 60% of these exports were yellow maize, with 40% being white maize.

Wheat:

The southern parts of the Western Cape province could receive light showers this week, whereas other parts of the province could remain dry and cool. However, the week ending 17 August 2017 could bring rainfall of between 16 and 30 millimetres across the province which will possibly improve crop conditions and soil moisture.

Click here to read more.

Soybeans:

The harvest process is complete with exceptional yields which support the National Crop Estimate Committee’s view of a record crop of 1.34 million tonnes – an 81% annual increase.

RSA fruit:

The prices of apples and bananas retracted from the previous day’s highs due to large stocks, closing at R6.92 per kilogramme and R5.79 per kilogramme, respectively. The apples stocks were up by 27% from the previous day easing at 274 368 tonnes. At the same time, the bananas daily stocks increased by 79% to 280 678 tonnes.

The post Potato market sees additional gains. appeared first on Agri Limpopo.

Soybeans:

The domestic soybean usage declined in June 2017, despite the increase in supplies. SAGIS data shows that in June 2017, South Africa’s soybean consumption (crushed oil and cake) fell by 22% from the previous month and 30% from the same period last year and eased at 72 095 tonnes.

Maize:

The total maize deliveries were reported at 806 246 tonnes in the week ending 28 July 2017, down 17% from the previous week. About 64% of this was white maize with 36% being yellow maize. This brought South Africa’s 2017/18 total maize deliveries for “week 1 to 13” to 12.39 million tonnes. Of this total, 58% is white maize and 42% is yellow maize.

Wheat:

The weather remains a key focus as the crop is still at early growing stages which require moisture. Unfortunately, the next eight days is likely to be no different from the previous few weeks of dryness. The forecasts only present a possibility of light showers in the coastal areas.

Click here to read more.

Sunflower seed:

The relatively lower sunflower seed prices have led to an increase in consumption or usage. As shown in SAGIS data for June 2017 that South Africa’s sunflower seed consumption (crushed oil and cake) increased by 48% month-on-month and 14% year-on-year in June 2017 to 68 482 tonnes.

RSA Potatoes:

In yesterday’s trade session the South African potato market pulled back from the previous day’s level and closed in negative territory. These losses followed a slight uptick in daily stocks to 932 055 bags (10kg bags) at the beginning of the session.

RSA fruit:

The fruit market ended the day mixed in yesterday’s trade session. The bananas and oranges prices were up by 7% and 11% from the previous day, closing at R6.19 per kilogramme and R3.33 per kilogramme, respectively. The price of apples lost 4% from the previous day, closing at R6.64 per kilogramme due to large stocks of 256 739 tonnes.

The post Domestic soybean usage declined. appeared first on Agri Limpopo.

Soybeans:

The relatively stronger Rand against the US Dollar, lower Chicago soybean prices, and expected large supplies kept the domestic soybean prices under pressure in yesterday’s trade session.

Maize:

Farmers continue to deliver maize to commercial silos. The total maize deliveries were reported at 393 366 tonnes in the week ending 11 August 2017, down 13% from the previous week. About 71% of this was white maize with 29% being yellow maize.

Click here to read more.

Wheat:

The weather remains a key factor in the domestic market due as the crop is still at early growing stages. This season is about a month and a half behind schedule. The latest weather forecasts show a possibility of light showers of roughly 16 millimetres within the next eight days across the southern parts of the Western Cape province. Although this is a welcome relief, it is not sufficient to improve soil moisture and crop conditions.

RSA Potatoes:

The South African potatoes market pulled back from the previous day’s level owing to relatively large stocks of  863 240 pockets (10kg bag) at the start of the trading session. The price was down by 4% from the previous day, closing at R28.77 per 10kg pocket.

RSA fruit:

The fruit market ended the day on a mixed footing in yesterday’s trade session. The prices of apples and oranges were up by 5% and 1% from the previous day, closing at R7.91 per kilogramme and R3.25 per kilogramme, respectively. These gains were mainly on the back of lower stocks and strong buying interest.

The post Domestic soybean prices still under pressure. appeared first on Agri Limpopo.

To everyone who takes a bit of time to read what we write, thank you. Best wishes for 2018.

Highlights in today’s morning note

South Africa’s average dam levels: week ended 01 January 2018 (last year’s figures in brackets – 01 January 2017)

Source: Department of Water and Sanitation and Agbiz Research

Weather:

 While temperatures could rise to levels above 26 degrees Celsius at the start of this week, there is a possibility of light rainfall in most parts of the country within the next eight days (see figure 1 – attached report). However, this will not be sufficient to significantly improve soil moisture in summer crop producing areas. Meanwhile, the Northern Cape and Western Cape provinces might remain dry and warm over the observed period.

Maize:

 The expectations of rainfall in the latter part of 2017 did not materialise in most areas, particularly the western regions. As result, the maize planting process has not yet been completed in some areas. Moreover, the areas that managed to plant on time are currently experiencing heat stress, but no major damage reported thus far.

Farmers planned to plant 2.47 million hectares of maize this season, which is 6% lower than the 2016/17 production season. About 56% of the area is set to be for white maize, with 44% for yellow maize. However, this might change due to the aforementioned delays in planting in the western regions of the country. Overall, there will be more clarity when the National Crop Estimate Committee releases its estimates on 30 January 2018.

South Africa’s maize supplies are still solid. SAGIS recently reported that the country’s maize stocks were at 8.2 million tonnes in November 2017, which is twice the volume seen in the same period in 2016. This notable uptick is mainly due to a record commercial maize production of 16.74 million tonnes in the 2016/17 season.

From a trade perspective, South Africa exported 64 206 tonnes of maize in the weeks of 09 to 29 December 2017. The leading buyer was Japan with a share of 56%, all yellow maize. This placed South Africa’s 2017/18 total maize export volume at 1.7 million tonnes, which equates to 77% of the season’s export forecast of 2.2 million tonnes.

Wheat:

In December 2017, the National Crop Estimate Committee revised its 2017 wheat production estimates down by 7% from the previous month to 1.48 million tonnes. This is 23% lower than the previous season’s crop. The downward revision was mainly due to disappointing yields in the Western Cape and Free State provinces, on the back of unfavourable weather conditions. The sixth production estimates for 2017 wheat will be released on 30 January 2018.

Overall, this implies that South Africa will have to import at least 1.80 million tonnes of wheat in the 2017/18 marketing year in order to fulfil the domestic needs. This is almost double the previous marketing year’s imports of 934 765 tonnes.

South Africa imported 48 432 tonnes of wheat in the weeks of 09 to 29 December 2017. About 66% came from Russia and 34% from Argentina. This placed 2017/18 marketing year’s wheat imports at 625 073 tonnes, which equates to 35% of the seasonal import forecast of 1.80 million tonnes (This is under the assumption that domestic production will reach 1.48 million tonnes).  

Sunflower seed:

The expectations of heavy rainfall in the summer crop growing areas of South Africa did not materialise in most areas during the festive season, particularly the western parts of the country. As a result, the sunflower seed planting process has somewhat been delayed, and the areas that have planted continue to experienced heat stress which could possibly damage the crops.

The South African farmers intended to plant 665 500 hectares of sunflower seed in the 2017/18 production season, up by 5% from the previous season. Given the aforementioned realities, this target is unlikely to be achieved. The National Crop Estimate Committee will release the preliminary area planted estimates on the 30th of January 2018.

Aside from this, the country still has large supplies from the 2016/17 production season. South Africa’s sunflower seed ending stocks were recorded at 374 117 tonnes in November 2017, down by 20% from the previous month, but up by 32% from the corresponding period last year.

In terms of trade, South Africa exported 42 tonnes of sunflower seed to Namibia in November 2017, which is well above the previous month’s exports of a mere one tonne. This brought the country’s 2017/18 sunflower seed exports to 168 tonnes – all went to regional markets, namely; Botswana, Namibia and Swaziland.

Also worth noting is that sunflower seed consumption (crushed oil and cake) declined by 3% month-on-month to 92 650 tonnes in November 2017. However, this is 59% higher than the volume utilised in November 2016.

Soybeans:

Unlike other crops, such as maize and sunflower seed, most soybean growing areas of the country managed to plant on time, with the exception of few areas in the western parts of the country which experienced delays due to dryness. The expected rainfall at the end of 2017 did not materialise in some regions, particularly the western areas, where soil moisture is still low.

The South African farmers planned to plant an area of 720 000 hectares in the 2017/18 production season. However, the current warm weather conditions could hamper this target. That said, there will be more clarity when the National Crop Estimate Committee releases its preliminary area planted data at the end of this month.

Apart from that, South Africa’s soybean consumption (crushed oil and cake) was reported at 95 433 tonnes in November 2017, up by 51% from the previous month, and 57% from November 2016.  Also worth noting is that the soybean ending stocks were at 589 106 tonnes in November 2017, down by 15% from the previous month, but double the volume seen in November 2016 due to a large harvest in 2016/17 production season.

From a trade perspective, the large soybean harvest of 1.32 million tonnes received in 2016/17 production season implies that South Africa could receive minimal imports in the 2017/18 marketing year. This is a remarkable improvement following imports of 271 098 tonnes in the previous marketing year.

The country imported 1 324 tonnes of soybean in November 2017. About 78% of this came from Zambia and the balance from Malawi. This placed South Africa’s 2017/18 soybean imports to 26 392 tonnes, which equals to 94% of the seasonal import forecast of 28 000 tonnes.

RSA Potatoes:

After a positive start this year, the South African potatoes price came under pressure in Friday’s trade session, down by 2% from the previous day, closing at R42.65 per pocket (10kg). These losses were mainly underpinned by large stocks of 776 791 pockets (10kg bag) at the beginning of the trading session.

In addition, during the session, the market saw an uptick in deliveries as harvest activity picks up after a quiet period during the Christmas holidays. This led to a 6% increase in daily stocks to 824 387 pockets (10kg bag).

RSA Fruit:

After a wobbly performance in the latter part of 2017, the fruit market started the year again on a mixed footing driven by relatively lower stocks. The prices of bananas and oranges were up by 9% and 13% from the previous day, closing at R6.78 per kilogram and R7.04 per kilogram, respectively. This was partially due to lower stocks of 289 320 tonnes of bananas and 21 088 tonnes of oranges.

Meanwhile, the price of apples was down by 2% from the previous day, closing at R8.68 per kilogram. This followed an uptick in daily stocks to 135 710 tonnes.

SAFEX beef carcass:

The SAFEX beef carcass market started the year on a quiet footing with the price flat at R44.00 per kilogram.  However, this could differ from the physical market which continues to show solid activity and volumes.

In October 2017, South African farmers slaughtered 219 393 head of cattle, up by 3% from the previous month, but 7% lower compared to October 2016. The Red Meat Levy Admin will release an update of the cattle slaughtering data later this month, and that will probably show an uptick due to strong festive season demand.

Click below to read more reports by Wandile Sihlobo

Agbiz Morning Market Viewpoint on Agri-Commodities 08 January 2018

The post Agbiz Morning Market Viewpoint on Agri-Commodities: 08 January 2018 appeared first on Agri Limpopo.

Although the estimate for total maize production is set to decline significantly from the 2016/17 production season, the expected 12.2 million tonnes means that South Africa is in for a good crop. If weather conditions remain favourable, as forecasters suggest, then the country will be well supplied in the 2018/19 marketing year which starts in May 2018 and ends in September 2019. In detail, white maize crop is estimated at 6.1 million tonnes, down by 38% y/y. Yellow maize crop is also estimated at 6.1 million tonnes, down by 11% y/y.

Moreover, the 2017/18 soybean production is estimated at 1.4 million tonnes, up by 5% from the previous season owing to an increase in area planted, as well as expectations of higher yields. This is somewhat unsurprising given that the eastern sections of South Africa received fairly good rainfall throughout the season.

With the exception of dry beans, all other crops registered a decline from levels seen in 2016/17 production season (Chart 1, other small grain not included in the chart). It is worth noting however that these are first production estimates, which means there could still be changes in the coming months, but will most likely be on the upside given the expectations of favourable weather conditions from this month until April 2018.

Click below to read the full report by Wandile Sihlobo

South Africa is in for a good grain harvest, despite the decline in area planted

The post South Africa in for a good grain harvest, despite decline in area planted appeared first on Agri Limpopo.

South Africa’s sub-soil moisture – 02 March 2018

Source: World Weather Inc.

Maize:

Last week’s showers were mainly concentrated in areas around the eastern sections of Limpopo and Mpumalanga provinces, whereas other regions remained cool and dry. With that said, the most recent report from World Weather Inc. shows that soil moisture has improved significantly across the maize belt from dryness experienced at the beginning of the year, particularly the western sections.

As a result, the maize crop is generally in good condition in most sections of the maize belt. Moreover, The expected rainfall within the next two weeks should further improve soil moisture and crop conditions.

It is worth highlighting again that the South African Weather Service forecasts a weak La Niña phase through to early autumn. This means that the maize growing regions of the country could receive good rainfall within the next two month. Overall, this reinforces the National Crop Estimates Committee’s view of a fairly good crop of 12.2 million tonnes in the 2017/18 production season.

In the region, the most recent data from Botswana’s Ministry of Agriculture shows that 2017/18 grain area plantings were at 42 800 hectares by end of February 2018, well below the area 167 562 hectares planted at the corresponding period last year.

Wheat:

Yesterday there was no new news in the domestic wheat market. The main focus today will be SAGIS weekly trade data which should give an indication of the wheat import activity.

To reiterate a point made in yesterday’s note, the upward revision of domestic wheat production to 1.5 million tonnes led a 3% downward revision of 2017/18 wheat import estimate from last month to 1.85 million tonnes. This is however still the second largest import volume on record in a dataset starting from 1936.

On the global front – The International Grains Council forecasts 2017/18 global wheat imports at 180 million tonnes, up by 1% from the previous season. The key importing regions are North Africa and Southeast Asia, with imports estimated at 29 million and 27 million tonnes, respectively. In North Africa region, the key buyers are Egypt, Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia.

Sub-Saharan Africa is also amongst the key wheat importing regions with 2017/18 wheat imports estimated at 23 million tonnes, up by 7% from the previous season. The leading buyers within this region are Nigeria, Sudan, South Africa and Kenya.

Soybeans:

South Africa’s 2017/18 soybean production season started in a better position than other crops due to rainfall in the eastern sections of the country. The crop is currently in good conditions, despite the dry and cool conditions experienced in the past few days.

Looking ahead, the weather forecasts promise higher rainfall within the next two weeks, which should further improve soil moisture and benefit the crop. This actually reinforces the National Crop Estimates Committee’s view of a possible record harvest of 1.4 million tonnes in 2017/18 production, up by 5% y/y.

While this is a welcome development, hail is always a key concern for the eastern sections of South Africa, especially when there are expectations of heavy rainfall. In the past few weeks, hail affected some areas in KwaZulu Natal and Mpumalanga provinces, but the impact on crops was minimal.

From a global demand perspective, China recently bought 198 000 tonnes of soybeans from the US. In fact, the Chinese soybean demand will remain solid throughout the season. The USDA forecasts China’s 2017/18 soybean imports at 97 million tonnes, up by 4% from the previous season. Moreover, this constitutes 65% of 2017/18 global soybean imports.

From a supply point of view, Informa Economics revised its estimate for Brazil’s 2017/18 soybean production up by 2 million tonnes from the previous month to 114 million tonnes. This is almost in line with the previous season’s harvest. Meanwhile, Argentina’s 2017/18 soybean production estimate was revision down by 7 million tonnes from last month to 44 million tonnes, owing to persistent dryness. This is roughly 20% lower than the previous season.

RSA Potatoes:

After recording losses on Friday’s trade session, the South African potatoes market was fairly quiet in yesterday’s trade session despite the large stock of 1.1 million pockets (10kg bag) at the start of the session.

However, towards the end of the session the market experienced commercial buying interest, coupled with relatively lower deliveries on the back of slow harvest activity during the weekend. This subsequently led to a 38% decline in daily stocks to 666 195 pockets (10kg bag).

RSA Fruit:

The fruit market started the week on a negative footing owing to large stocks. The prices of apples and bananas were down by 2% and 8% from the previous day, closing at R7.23 and R6.47 per kilogram, respectively. This was on the back of large stock of 216 00 tonnes of apples and 346 000 tonnes of bananas.

Moreover, the price of oranges declined by 30% from the previous day, closing at R8.31 per kilogram due to commercial selling. Looking ahead, the oranges market should soon gain ground as stocks are at lower levels of 4 000 tonnes, compared to levels of over 50 000 tonnes in December 2017.

Full report available below.

Agbiz Morning Market Viewpoint on Agri-Commodities 06 March 2018

The post Soil moisture has improved significantly across the maize belt appeared first on Agri Limpopo.

Maize:

A large part of the South African maize belt started this week with dry and cool weather conditions, with light and scattered showers only in a couple of regions within Mpumalanga province. The areas that are somewhat moisture-stressed following dryness in the past few days could soon see some relief, as the weather forecasts for the next two weeks show a possibility of rainfall of over 30 millimetres.

Last week’s maize exports were again disappointing. South Africa exported 14 010 tonnes, down by 5 percent from the volume exported in the week of 02 March 2018. About 68 percent of these exports were white maize, with 32 percent being yellow maize. This placed South Africa’s 2017/18 maize marketing year exports at 2.0 million tonnes, which equates to 83 percent of the season’s export forecast of 2.4 million tonnes.

Within the region, the 2017/18 maize production season started on a bad footing in Zimbabwe with limited soil moisture in the latter part of December 2017 into the start of 2018. But, at the beginning of last month, the maize producing regions received good showers which improved soil moisture and benefited the crop.

The reports we are getting from analysts on the ground in the country point to a possibility of average yields in most areas, which is well below the 2016/17 production season’s bumper harvest of 2.2 million tonnes. We will closely monitor the developments in the coming weeks as this could have implications on regional maize demand. In the case of South Africa, these developments will have implication on export activity for the 2018/19 marketing year which starts in May 2018.

Wheat:

As highlighted in yesterday’s note, South Africa’s wheat market is currently off-season, and therefore, most activity is in import trading. However, the recent developments in the major wheat production province, Western Cape, are worth mentioning. The weather charts for the next two weeks show a possibility of light showers of between 16 and 20 millimetres across the coastal areas of the province.

While a welcome development, this will nonetheless not make a meaningful improvement on dam levels which are critically low, estimated at 20 percent in the week of 05 March 2018, down by 10 percentage points from the corresponding period last year.

There are no new developments on the wheat import tariff. The newly calculated trigger rate is R394.84 per tonne, down by 45 percent from the current active level. This new rate will only be applicable after its publication on the government gazette. The timeframe for this process is unclear, but previous adjustments took more than three weeks.

With that said, the import activity has slowed. South Africa imported 55 958 tonnes in the week ending 09 March 2018, down by 46 percent from the previous week. About 51 percent came from Romania, 31 percent from Latvia and 18 percent from Argentina. This placed 2017/18 marketing year’s wheat imports at 1.14 tonnes, which equates to 62 percent of the seasonal import forecast of 1.85 million tonnes.

Soybeans:

The soybean crop is generally in good condition with expectations of above-average yields in some areas. This supports the National Crop Estimates Committee’s view of a new record level of 1.4 million tonnes this season, up by 5 percent from the 2016/17 production season.

Although soil moisture is in good condition, the crop could still benefit from additional rainfall, especially the late planted areas. The expected showers have not yet materialised in most areas. It is only areas around Graskop, Middelburg, Morgenzon, Witbank and Wonderfontein that received light showers on Monday night.

The next two weeks, however, promise the possibility of rainfall of over 50 millimetres in soybean growing regions of the country . This should further improve soil moisture and benefit the crop.

From a demand front, the 2017/18 soybean imports are estimated at 151 million tonnes, up by 5 percent from the previous season. China, the EU, Japan and Mexico are set to be the key buys. China alone accounts for two-thirds of global soybean imports. This is driven by growing demand from the animal feed industry.

Sunflower seed:

The weather remains a primary focus in the sunflower seed market as the crop is still at its early stages of development. The expected rainfall has not yet materialised in most areas of the country. However, the crop that is slightly moisture-stressed following dryness in the past few days should soon recover as weather conditions promise rainfall within the next two weeks.

As highlighted in our previous notes, the medium-term weather forecast promises a possibility of above normal rainfall in summer crop growing areas of South Africa between this month and May 2018. This should provide sufficient moisture for crop development throughout the season.

In the global market – The 2017/18 sunflower seed harvest process is not yet complete in Russia. According to SUNSEEDMAN, about 7 percent of the area planting is yet to be harvested. The USDA placed Russia’s 2017/18 sunflower seed production at 10.4 million tonnes, down by 5 percent from the previous day.

In Argentina, the sunflower seed harvest process is underway but could slow within the next few days due to expected rainfall. On 13 March 2018, about 45% of this season’s crop had already been harvested. The USDA forecasts the country’s 2017/18 sunflower seed crop at 3.6 million tonnes, up by 6 percent year-on-year.

RSA Potatoes:

The potatoes market had a good run in yesterday’s trade session underpinned by lower stocks of 644 269 pockets (10kg bag) at the start of the session. The price was up by 7 percent from the previous day, closing at R35.51 per pocket (10kg).

However, in yesterday’s trading session, the market saw an uptick in deliveries as harvest activity picked up after a quiet period in the weekend. This led to a 21 percent increase in daily stocks to 780 197 pockets (10kg bag).

RSA fruit:

The fruit market ended yesterday’s session on a mixed footing. The apples and bananas market managed to claw back the recent losses with the prices up by 11 percent and 12 percent from the previous day, closing at R8.12 and R8.06 per kilogram, respectively. These gains followed a respective decline in daily stocks of apples and bananas to 183 000 tonnes and 237 000 tonnes.

Meanwhile, the price of oranges experienced extended losses of 29 percent from the previous day and settled at R5.47 per kilogram. We maintain that this will be short-lived because of fairly lower stock of 55 000 tonnes, compared to levels of over 70 000 tonnes in the past few days.

Click below for the full report by Wandile Sihlobo:

Agbiz Morning Market Viewpoint on Agri-Commodities 14 March 2018

The post Soybean crop expectations of above-average yields in some areas appeared first on Agri Limpopo.

The weather remains a key focus in the domestic maize market as the crop is still at its growing stages. The soil moisture has generally improved across the maize belt following rainfall in the past few weeks. But, follow up rainfall is needed given that the crop has been moisture-stressed in the western parts of the country following dryness in the past few days.

Fortunately, the near term weather forecasts show signs of good rainfall across the maize belt within the next two weeks. If this materialises, the maize crop will remain in good shape, which increases a chance of good yields this season .

While the focus is on the new production season, some farmers continue to deliver old season maize to commercial silos. The total maize deliveries were reported at 13 287 tonnes in the week ending 09 March 2018, well above the previous week’s deliveries of 13 287 tonnes. About 60 percent of this was yellow maize, with 40 percent being white maize. Overall, South Africa’s 2017/18 marketing year’s total maize deliveries for “week 1 to 45” currently stand at 15.39 million tonnes. Of this total, 59 percent is white maize with 41 percent being yellow maize.

Wheat:

Although the winter wheat growing season will only start in the next two months or so, the recent developments on the Western Cape weather front are worth highlighting. The weather charts currently show a possibility of light rainfall within the next two weeks across the coastal areas of the province.

This is a welcome development following weeks of dryness, but will not make a meaningful improvement on dam levels which are critically low, estimated at 20 percent in the week of 12 March 2018, unchanged from the previous week, but down by 9 percentage points from the corresponding period last year.

The volumes of wheat recently delivered to commercial silos declined significantly from levels seen the previous weeks. This mirrors the reduction in activity in the farms after the completion of the harvest process .

About 3 519 tonnes of wheat were delivered to commercial silos in the week ending 09 March 2018. This is up by 24 percent from the volume delivered the previous week, but well below the volumes delivered in the previous months when the harvest process was at its peak. Overall, this placed South Africa’s winter wheat producer deliveries for “week 1 to 23” of the 2017/18 marketing year at 1.46 million tonnes.

Soybeans:

This week the soybean growing areas were dry and cool so far, with light showers on Tuesday night only which were concentrated in areas around Lydenburg, Middelburg, Morgenzon, Witbank and Wonderfontein. With that said, this is not a greater concern as there is still a fair amount of soil moisture.

Moreover, the next two weeks promise the possibility of good rainfall which should further improve soil moisture. As noted in yesterday’s note, these weather developments support the Crop Estimates Committee’s view of a new record level of 1.4 million tonnes this season, up by 5 percent from the 2016/17 production season.

In global markets – There is speculation in the market that China’s soybean demand could partially shift from the US to South America owing to the recent political developments regarding US trade policy. China is the world’s leading importer of soybeans with a share of 64% in 2017/18 global soybean imports of 151 million tonnes.

In the past five years, the US has been one of the key suppliers of soybeans to China accounting for nearly 40% share of that market, according to data from Trade Map. Brazil and Argentina were amongst the key suppliers, hence the talks in the market point to a possible increase in South America’s share at the expense of the US in the Chinese soybean market over the coming years.

Sunflower seed:

The expected rainfall has not yet materialised in most areas of the country. Although not an immediate concern, it is worth noting that some crops in the western parts of the North West and Free State provinces are slightly moisture-stressed and urgently need rainfall.

There is hope however that the expected rainfall within the next eight days could offer a bit of relief. Fortunately, the medium-term forecasts promise a possibility of above normal rainfall in summer crop growing areas of South Africa between this month and May 2018 which should provide sufficient moisture for crop development throughout the season .

In the global market – The warm weather conditions in Argentina which have been disrupting the soybean crops have had a slightly positive impact on sunflowers, not by increasing yields but boosting the harvest process. Data from SUNSEEDMAN shows that on 14 March 2018, about 50% of this season’s Argentinian sunflower seed crop had already been harvested. The USDA forecasts the country’s 2017/18 sunflower seed crop at 3.6 million tonnes, up by 6 percent year-on-year.

RSA Potatoes:

After experiencing a good run at the start of the week, the potatoes market pulled back in yesterday’s trade session and settled in negative territory due to a large stock of 780 197 pockets (10kg bag) at the start of the session. The price was up by 9 percent from the previous day, closing at R32.40 per pocket (10kg).

In yesterday’s trading session, the market saw an uptick in deliveries on the back of ongoing harvest activity. This led to a 24 percent increase in daily stocks to 970 516 pockets (10kg bag).

RSA fruit:

The fruit market has been quite wobbly this week. The gains that were seen at the start of the week were again shaved off in yesterday’s session due to an uptick in daily stock levels. The prices of apples and bananas were down by down by 15 percent and 6 percent from the previous day, closing at R6.91 and R7.58 per kilogram, respectively.

Surprisingly, the price of oranges experienced extended losses of 17 percent from the previous day and settled at R4.54 per kilogram. We maintain that this will be short-lived because of fairly lower stock of 64 000 tonnes, compared to levels of over 70 000 tonnes in the past few days.

Full report by Wandile Sihlobo available below.

Agbiz Morning Market Viewpoint on Agri-Commodities 15 March 2018

The post Signs of good rainfall across maize belt within next two weeks appeared first on Agri Limpopo.

Maize:

The weekend didn’t bring much improvement in soil moisture, the rainfall was quite scattered in a few areas, but mostly in regions of Mpumalanga and eastern Free State provinces. With that said, the maize crop that is currently moisture-stressed following last week’s dryness could soon receive relief as weather forecasts show a possibility of over 60 millimetres of rainfall within the next eight days.

Worth noting, but of lesser significance to the global market, is the effect of pest and diseases which continue to affect crops in the region. The recent report from the  Mozambican government suggests that more than 3 000 hectares of maize plantings have been affected by disease and pest infestations. 

In 2016/17 production season, Mozambique produced 2.0 million tonnes of maize up by 12 percent from the previous season. However, this was slightly below the annual maize consumption of 2.2 million tonnes, and this means that the country will resort to imports to boost supplies. At this point, it is unclear what the 2017/18 maize harvest will be, but reports of crop damage increase a chance of a decline in maize harvest. This could potentially increase Mozambique’s reliance on maize supplies in countries such as South Africa and Zambia.

Wheat:

Yesterday there was no new news in the local wheat market. The weather is not a main focus at the moment as it is an off-season period, but in the next two months or so, the weather will again take the spotlight ahead of the winter wheat planting season.

In provinces such as the Western Cape, soil moisture has not improved as there hasn’t been any meaningful rainfall in months. The weather forecasts for the next two weeks show a possibility of light showers along the coastal areas of the province in the week of 04 April 2018. This will however not lead to any improvement in soil moisture. Above all, it is unclear what the weather conditions will look like in the upcoming season.

Apart from the domestic development, Russia plans to increase its presence in the global wheat market. The country’s Ministry of Agriculture forecasts 2017/18 grain exports at 52 million tonnes, which is a 44 percent uptick from the previous season. About 71 percent of the expected exports is wheat, which is unsurprising following a notable increase in production this season.

Soybeans:

Some soybean growing areas of the country experienced light and scattered showers during the weekend. However, areas around Bethlehem, Frankfort, Kroonstad, Lindley, Ventersburg, Vrede, Warden, Balfour, Davel, Greyling Stad, Irene, Leandra, Lydenburg, Standerton and Vereeniging received rainfall of over 20 millimetres over the weekend. This bodes well for soybean crop as it is still at growing stages that require moisture.

This week promises heavy rainfall across the soybean growing areas of the country. Although unusual at this time of the season, hail remains a concern for the eastern parts of the country when there are expectations of heavy rainfall. The past few weeks brought a bit of hail in some regions of Mpumalanga and KwaZulu Natal province, but the crop damage was limited.

The soybean crop is generally in good condition and if there are no crop damages in the coming weeks, the country will stand a good chance of achieving the National Crop Estimates Committee’s estimate of a new record harvest of 1.4 million tonnes this season, up by 5 percent from the 2016/17 production season.

It is also worth noting that South Africa remains a net importer of soybean oil-cake (meal), but the volumes imported have declined from levels of close to a million tonnes in 2010. Last year, South Africa imported 553 003 tonnes of soybean oilcake, down by 15 percent from volumes imported in 2016. This decline was partly linked to improvement in soybean production in the 2016/17 production season, where the soybean harvest reached a record level of 1.3 million tonnes.

Argentina was a leading supplier with a share of 88 percent of total imports. Zambia, Malawi and the Netherlands were also amongst the key suppliers of oilcake to South Africa, according to data from Trade Map. 

RSA Potatoes:

After experiencing a good run in the past few days, the potatoes market pulled back in yesterday’s trade session owing to a large stock of 1.2 million pockets (10kg bag) at the start of the session. The price was down by 7 percent from the previous day, closing at R28.16 per pocket (10kg).

However, towards the end of the session, the market experienced strong commercial buying interest, coupled with relatively lower deliveries on the back of slow harvest activity during the weekend. This subsequently led to a 33 percent decline in daily stocks to 808 418 pockets (10kg bag).

RSA fruit:

The fruit market was under pressure in yesterday’s trade session owing to commercial selling, as well as large stocks. The prices of apples and bananas were down by 11 percent and 15 percent from the previous day, closing at R7.24 and R6.09 per kilogram, respectively. This was mainly on the back of large stocks of 179 000 tonnes of apples and 326 000 tonnes of bananas.

The price of oranges declined by 28 percent from the previous day and settled at R3.97 per kilogram due to commercial selling. With that said, we believe that these losses could be short-lived because of fairly lower stock of 53 000 tonnes, compared to levels of over 70 000 tonnes in the past few days.

Find full report attached to this e-mail.

Agbiz Morning Market Viewpoint on Agri-Commodities 20 March 2018

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This season, weather conditions are once again playing a bigger role with the drought in the Western Cape and the delayed onset of rainfall in Free State and North-West provinces which affected production negatively.

Meanwhile, the weak US dollar – which translates into rand strength – offset the impacts of farm input costs (most of which are imported, such as fuel, fertilizers and chemicals) on the one hand, while making the commodity exports less competitive on the international markets, on the other.

In net terms, unfavourable weather implies a decline in yields (and in turn, production) while exchange volatility points to shifts in profitability. Considering the collective impact of these variables, we make a succinct reflection on weather, local market conditions and trade in the agricultural sector for the current planting season.

Full report by Wandile Sihlobo available in the attachment below.

SA agriculture_ immediate short to medium-term view 26 March 2018.

The post SA’s Agriculture: Immediate, short, to medium-term view – 26 March 2018 appeared first on Agri Limpopo.