Spotlight on the domestic wheat market

• The winter wheat crop is approaching the pollination stages in the Western Cape province, which means rainfall is critically needed in order to boost yields.
• Disappointingly, the weather forecast for the next two weeks shows clear skies over most parts of the province with prospects of light showers of between 10 and 16 millimetres in the coastal areas. While the Swartland and Overberg regions of the province could thrive well despite the aforementioned weather forecasts, parts of the southern Cape could be strained. This particular region has not received adequate rainfall since the start of the season.
• Furthermore, the current weather prospects also imply that the Western Cape’s dam levels could remain at current levels, or slightly decline this week. The most recent data from the Department of Water and Sanitation shows that the Western Cape provincial dam levels averaged 53 percent in the week of 13 August 2018, up marginally from the previous week and 24 percentage points higher than the corresponding period last year.
• Be that as it may, there is still hope that weather conditions could improve in the medium term, in line with the South African Weather Service’s expectations of above-normal rainfall in this province between this month and October 2018.
• In the Northern Cape province, the winter wheat planting process has been completed, whereas the Free State province is at final stages of the planting process. To recap, the planting window in the Free State and Northern Cape provinces typically runs between June and July of each year (and in certain cases like this year, it runs into early August), while the Western Cape starts planting towards the end of April.
• The aforementioned provinces collective account for 90 percent of the estimated area of 505 000 hectares of winter wheat in the 2018/19 production season. The official production estimate will be released later this month. The global observers such as the International Grains Council forecasts South Africa’s 2018/19 wheat production at 1.7 million tonnes, up by 13 percent from the previous season’s harvest due to improved weather conditions.

Click HERE to read the full report by Wandile Sihlobo