Spotlight on the wheat market
South African Agricultural Commodities Weekly Wrap-Up
June 1, 2018
Spotlight on the global maize market
June 5, 2018
Spotlight on wheat market
There are reports of deteriorating wheat crop conditions in the Black Sea region due to persistent dryness, particularly in the southern parts of Russia. In the third week of May 2018, the International Grains Council estimated Russia’s 2018/19 wheat production at 75 million tonnes, down by 12 percent from the previous season. This estimate did not factor in the recent weather dynamics. Therefore, there might be a further downward revision in the next monthly update.
The other countries within the Black Sea region that are set to register a decline in 2018/19 production season are Ukraine and Kazakhstan, where harvests are estimated at 27 million and 14 million tonnes, respectively down by a percentage point and 7 percent from the previous season.
From a global perspective, the aforementioned potential decline in production will slightly be offset by increases in other countries such as Canada, Australia and Argentina, amongst others. The USDA forecasts 2018/19 global wheat production at 742 million tonnes, down by 2 percent from the previous season.
Back on our home soil, the weather remains a primary focus as the winter wheat crop is at early stages of development in the Western Cape province. Last week, the Swartland region received good showers of between 20 and 40 millimetres, which bodes well with the crop at the current stages of its development.
In the Overberg region, the crop is also in good conditions, thanks to the recent showers. In the Southern Cape region, the planting activity is almost complete, also boosted by slight improvement in soil moisture. This is also evident in the province’s dam levels which averaged 19 percent in the week of 28 May 2018, up by 2 percentage points from the previous week and a percentage point from the corresponding period last year (see Map below).
With that said, it is not all rosy, while the recent showers have slightly improved topsoil moisture, the province needs intense and persistent rainfall in order to replenish subsoil moisture, which will then benefit the crop.
