Farmers in the eastern parts of the country have already started preparing the soil for the 2017/18 summer grain and oilseed production season. For maize, the planting window in the eastern parts of the country closes around mid-November. Meanwhile, the western areas only begin planting in mid-November, with the optimal planting window closing at the end of December. Apart from machinery sales, the South African Weather service suggests that the upcoming season could bring above normal rainfall between November 2017 and February 2018. This will benefit the crop and possibly lead to higher yields.

The combine harvester sales fell by 67% month-on-month and 71% year-on-year, with only 4 units sold in September 2017 (Chart 1). Although the decline was expected as it is a downtime with farmers preparing for the new summer crop season, the scale of it is surprising. This could be linked to the fact that the winter production areas are still far away from harvesting and the winter crop is not in good shape due to persistent dryness in the Western Cape province.

Looking ahead – We expect the tractor sales to remain soft in the near term as summer grain and oilseed production season progresses. The combine harvesters’ sales could remain weak over the near term and possibly gain slight momentum towards the end of the year when the winter crop harvest period commences.

As we set out in our note on 07 September 2017, an important factor to monitor in the long term is the cost of servicing the farm debt as that would have direct implications on the agricultural machinery sales.

Click below to read more

UPDATE: SA agricultural machinery sales soften in September – 09 October 2017

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Government’s intention to proceed with a shale gas industry through hydraulic fracturing (commonly known as fracking) was dealt a significant blow on Tuesday, 17 October 2017, when the Eastern Cape High Court retrospectively set aside the 2015 decision by the Minister of Mineral Resources to enact Regulations for Petroleum Exploration and Production (commonly known as the Fracking Regulations).  The Fracking Regulations, which have been in place since June 2015, were regarded as a vital statutory requirement for the granting of shale gas exploration and production rights in South Africa.

The application for the review and setting aside of the Fracking Regulations was brought by the President of Agri Eastern Cape, Douglas Stern, together with 15 other applicants, including the Graaff-Reinet, Cradock, Jansenville and Buffelshoek Agricultural unions.

In reaching his decision, Judge GH Bloem accepted the undisputed major possible impacts of fracking and shale gas development with respect to air, soil and groundwater contamination due to uncontrolled gas or fluid flows arising from blow-outs or spills, interception of naturally occurring fractures and fissures, well failures, corrosion of casings, cementing failure, leaking fracturing fluid and uncontrolled waste water discharge.

Advocates for the applicants argued that the Minister of Mineral Resources was not authorised to make the Fracking Regulations, that it contravened the provisions of the National Environmental Management Act and the National Water Act and that their making was procedurally unfair.  The Court agreed.  It also made an adverse costs order against the Minister of Mineral Resources.

The Court further took issue with the Minister of Mineral Resources’ enactment of the Fracking Regulations which unilaterally amended an agreement with the Minister of Environmental Affairs and Minster of Water Affairs in terms of which the regulation of the environmental impacts of mining have since September 2014 fully been regulated in terms of the National Environmental Management Act.

In commenting on the judgement, Douglas Stern commended the efforts of the Eastern Cape agricultural community in persevering with their continued opposition to fracking in that province.

Issued by Agri SA, Directorate:  Corporate Liaison

Enquiries

Mr Janse Rabie, Head: Natural Resources, Agri SA, 076 451 9601

Skaliegas regulasies deur Oos-Kaapse Hooggeregshof ter syde gestel

Die regering se planne om met ‘n skaliegas industrie by wyse van hidrouliese breking voort te gaan het Dinsdag, 17 Oktober 2017, ‘n ernstige terugslag ervaar toe die Oos-Kaapse Hooggeregshof die besluit wat in 2015 deur die Minister van Mineraalhulpbronne geneem is om die Petroleum Eksplorasie en Produksie Regulasies (algemeen bekend as die Hidrobreking Regulasies) te promulgeer retrospektief ter syde te stel.  Die Hidrobreking Regulasies, wat sedert Junie 2015 van krag is, is as ‘n kritiese voorvereiste beskou vir die toekenning van skaliegas eksplorasie en produksie regte in Suid Afrika.

Die aansoek om die tersydestelling van die Hidrobreking Regulasies is deur die President van Agri Oos-Kaap, Douglas Stern, tesame met 15 ander applikante, insluitende die Graaf-Reinet, Cradock, Jansenville en Buffelshoek Landbou Unies, aanhangig gemaak.

In sy beslissing het Regter GH Bloem die onmiskenbare ernstige moontlike omgewingsimpakte van hidrobreking en skaliegas ontwikkeling aanvaar wat betref lug, grond en waterbesoedeling as gevolg van onbeheerbare gas- of vloeistof vrystellings vanweë sogenaamde uitblasings of stortings, die inbreking op natuurlike krake en barste in die aardkors, boorgat disintegrering, die roes van boorgat omhulsels, beton disintegrering, lekkasie van hidrouliese breking vloeistowwe en onbeheerbare afvalwater vrystellings.

Advokate namens die applikante het geargumenteer dat die Minister van Mineraalhulpbornne nie by magte was om die Hidrobreking Regulasies te promulgeer nie, dat dit teenstrydig was met die bepalings van die Nasionale Wet op Omgewingsbestuur en die Nasionale Waterwet en dat die promulgering van die regulasies prosedureel onregverdig was.  Die Hof het hiermee saamgestem.  Die Hof het ook ‘n kostebevel teen die Minister toegeken.

Die Hof het daarbenewens ook uitgevaar teen die Minister se promulgering van die Hidrobreking Regulasies wat eensydiglik die ooreenkoms met die Minister van Omgewingsake en die Minister van Waterwese gewysig het in terme waarvan die regulering van die omgewingsimpakte wat met mynwese gepaard gaan sedert September 2014 deur die Nasionale Wet op Omgewingsbestuur gereguleer word.

In sy kommentaar op die hofuitspraak het Douglas Stern die volgehoue verset van die Oos-Kaapse landbougemeenskap teen hidrouliese breking in die provinsie geprys.

Uitgereik deur Agri SA, Direktoraat:  Korporatiewe Skakeling

Navrae

Mr Janse Rabie, Hoof: Natuurlike Hulpbronne, Agri SA, 076 451 9601

The post Agri SA Media Release: Fracking Regulations – 18 October 2017 appeared first on Agri Limpopo.

Diesel (0.05% Wholesale Inland) and petrol (95 ULP Inland) prices could increase by 21 cents per litre (c/l) and 1 (c/l) respectively, on 01 November 2017. This increase could lift the wholesale diesel price to R12.33 per litre from R12.12 per litre in October 2017. At the same time, the retail price of petrol could increase to R14.02 per litre from the current level of R14.01 per litre.

This expected fuel price increase is largely driven by relatively higher Brent crude oil prices, which averaged US$56.83 a barrel this month, up by 3% from September 2017. The ZAR/USD exchange also played a major role, after weakening by 3% from the previous month, averaging R13.55 at the time of writing.

Overall, the expected uptick in diesel prices will increase farmers’ and agribusinesses’ input costs, particularly in summer crop growing areas which have recently started planting the 2017/18 production season’s crops.  As we set out in our previous fuel note, the agribusinesses that operate in the transport industry will also feel the pressure on input costs due to their exposure on road transport. An example of this is maize which has more than 80% stock that is transported by road.

Read more here:

FUEL UPDATE: 2% increase in diesel price on the cards in November 2017

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As we set out in our note on 28 September 2017, the broad deceleration in food producer inflation is due to a robust summer crop harvest, as well as improving slaughtering activity, particularly cattle and sheep.  

Meat and meat products price inflation eased to 16.5% y/y in September 2017, from 16.8% y/y in the previous month. This was largely driven by the improvement in cattle and sheep slaughtering activity. About 228 632 head of cattle were slaughtered in August 2017, up by 12% from the previous month.  At the same time, 374 838 head of sheep, which is an 11% monthly uptick.

For now, it is unclear whether this will be a temporary blip or a continuous recovery. We will get more clarity tomorrow, 27 October 2017, when the Red Meat Levy Admin releases the figures for September 2017. Within the meat and meat products basket, the spread of avian influenza remains a major concern, although it has, so far, largely affected layers for egg production. 

A slight uptick in dairy products price inflation to 1.7% y/y in September 2017 came as no surprise. It is merely a reflection of seasonal trends. We expect dairy products inflation to soften in the coming months, in anticipation for improvement in grazing veld and milk production during the summer rainfall season.

Apart from avian influenza, large agricultural output and positive prospects for the new summer crop season will keep commodity prices under pressure over the short-to-medium term, which should contain food products’ inflation at relatively lower levels.   

Click below to read more recent reports by Wandile Sihlobo.

PPI UPDATE: SA food products price inflation slows to 1.3% year on year

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Mediaverklaring / Media Release  

GEWELD TEEN PLAASGEMEENSKAPPE MOET STOP

Suid-Afrika kan nie bekostig dat die geweldskultuur in die land plaasgemeenskappe verder teister nie. Plaasaanvalle en die wreedaardigheid daarvan moet deur alle Suid-Afrikaners ten sterkste veroordeel word.

“Ons dink aan duisende mede Suid-Afrikaners wat die afgelope jaar hulle lewens weens geweldsmisdade verloor het, 52 moorde per dag! Baie boere en plaaswerkers tel onder diegene wat met hulle lewens die hoogste prys betaal het”, sê Dan Kriek, president van Agri SA.

34 000 Boere hanteer tans droogtes, natuurrampe, beleidsonsekerheid en moet ook aanslae op hulle lewens afweer, terwyl hulle kos produseer vir 55 miljoen Suid-Afrikaners. Een boer voed 1600 mense elke dag. Al die faktore kan oor die langer termyn voedseltekorte tot gevolg hê en daarmee saam stabiliteit in die land benadeel.  

Die tyd het lank reeds aangebreek dat die publiek en regering moet kennis neem van die wreedheid van plaasaanvalle, asook die aanslag op lede van die boerderygemeenskap en daarom ondersteun Agri SA die bewusmakingsveldtog Maandag, 30 Oktober 2017 dat mede Suid-Afrikaners as blyk van meelewing swart klere sal dra. 

“Boere is kwesbaar en daarom is paraatheid op huishoudelike vlak en gemeenskapsbetrokkenheid van belang om die geweldsaanslag af te weer. Een van die pilare vir gemeenskapsdeelname aan landelike veiligheid, is die implementering van die Landelike Beveiligingstrategie. Om pro-aktief te wees beteken dat die individu en gemeenskap op enige voorval bedag en gereed moet wees en dit kan slegs bereik word, wanneer boere en plaaswerkers binne georganiseerde landboustrukture betrokke is”, sê Kriek.

Binne die Agri SA groep, speel die Agri Securitas Trustfonds ‘n belangrike rol om plaasgemeenskappe teen plaasaanvalle te help beveilig. In die praktyk voorsien die Trustfonds toerusting soos kommunikasienetwerke, kamera-stelsels, misdaadbekampingstoerusting en vele meer, aan die gemeenskappe. Die fonds is ook betrokke om traumaberading te verskaf, waar gemeenskappe dit benodig.

Die Trustfonds is maar een van die instrumente wat gebruik word om plaasgemeenskappe te beveilig en Agri SA sal voortgaan met sy beïnvloedingsrol om binne die regeringsopset oplossings vir plaasaanvalle te soek.  Agri SA doen ‘n beroep op die Suid-Afrikaanse sakegemeenskap om die inisiatiewe van Agri SA te ondersteun en betrokke te raak by die groep.

Ten slotte sê Kriek, “ek is deeglik bewus van die emosionele spanning waaronder plaasgemeenskappe verkeer en dat Agri SA en sy provinsiale organisasies sal aanhou soek na oplossings om die gewelddadige aanslag teen ons boeregemeenskappe te stop”.

Uitgereik deur Agri SA, Direktoraat:  Korporatiewe Skakeling

Navrae

Mnr Dan Kriek, President Agri SA, 082 944 0566

Mnr Omri van Zyl, Uitvoerende Direkteur, Agri SA, 012-643 3400 of 082 417 5724

VIOLENCE AGAINST FARM COMMUNITIES MUST STOP

South Africa cannot afford any further violence against farming communities. Farm attacks and the brutality thereof must be strongly condemned by all South Africans.

“We think of the thousands of fellow South Africans who have lost their lives during the past year as a result of violent crime, 52 murders a day! Many farmers and farm workers count among those who have paid the highest price,” said Agri SA President Dan Kriek.

34 000 Farmers are suffering the effects of drought, natural disasters and policy uncertainty, while also trying to protect their lives and produce food for 55 million South Africans. One farmer feeds 1 600 people a day. All these factors can in time give rise to food shortages, accompanied by instability in the country.

It has long been time for the public and the government to take note of the brutality of farm attacks, as well as the onslaught aimed at members of the farming community. For this reason, Agri SA supports the awareness campaign that kicks off on Monday, 30 October 2017, with South Africans expressing their support by wearing black.

“Farmers are vulnerable, and it is therefore important to be prepared at household level and, through community involvement, to curb this violent onslaught. One of the pillars for community participation in rural safety is the implementation of the Rural Safety Strategy. Becoming more proactive means that the individual and community must be ready and prepared for any event and this is only possible when farmers and farm workers are involved in the structures of organised agriculture,” said Kriek.

Within the Agri SA group, the Agri Securitas Trust Fund plays an important role in safeguarding farmers. In practice, the Trust Fund makes equipment such as communication networks, camera systems, crime-fighting equipment, etc. available to communities. This fund is also involved in providing trauma counselling where communities require it.

The Trust Fund is but one of the instruments used to protect farm communities and Agri SA will continue to play a lobbying role within government context to seek solutions in this regard. Agri SA also calls on the South African business community to support these initiatives and to become involved in the Agri SA group.

In closing, Kriek said: “I am fully aware of the emotional stress experienced within farming communities and that Agri SA and its provincial organisations will continue to seek solutions to stop the violent onslaught waged against our farming communities.”

Issued by Agri SA, Directorate:  Corporate Liaison

Enquiries

Mr Dan Kriek, President Agri SA, 082 944 0566

Mr Omri van Zyl, Executive Director, Agri SA, 012-643 3400 or 082 417 5724

The post Agri SA Media Release: Violence against farm communities must stop appeared first on Agri Limpopo.

Unlike the past three years when the third quarter figures presented an uptick in agricultural employment, the sector continued to experience job losses this year due to reduced activity in field crops and horticultural sector. This placed South Africa’s agricultural labour force at 810 000 jobs (see Chart 1). The most affected province of all is the Western Cape, although it remains the largest agricultural employer, with a share of 20%.

The Eastern Cape, Free State, Kwa Zulu Natal, North West and Limpopo provinces saw a notable reduction in employment of 5% quarter-on-quarter (q/q), 6% q/q and 2% q/q, 8% q/q and 4% q/q, respectively. Meanwhile, the Northern Cape, Gauteng and Mpumalanga provinces saw job gains of 7% q/q, 29% q/q and 5% q/q, respectively (see Chart 2).

In terms of sub-sector performance – The reduction in employment were in field crops and horticulture, livestock, mixed farming, and production of organic fertilizer. Meanwhile, the other sub-sectors, such as the game farming, forestry, as well as aquaculture showed job gains (see Chart 3). Above all, the South African agriculture’s share of total employment is 5%, down by 0.2 percentage points from the second quarter of the year.  This is still above sectors such as the mining, and slightly below the transport industry.

Looking ahead – The persistent drought in the Western Cape province remains a key risk that could potentially undermine the performance of agricultural labour market. Although the summer crop-producing provinces could experience an increase in activity in the fourth quarter of this year, there’s limited chance of notable improvement in employment. Most summer crops are not labour intensive, particularly grains and oilseeds.

Click here to read the full report 

25 000 job cuts recorded in SA agriculture in Q3, 2017

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The planting activity for the 2017/18 production season is underway in the summer rainfall areas of the country. South African farmers intend to increase the total area plantings by 1% from the 2016/17 production season to 4.03 million hectares. The optimal planting window for maize in the eastern parts of the country closes in mid-November. The western areas only begin planting maize in mid-November, with the optimal planting window closing at the end of December. For oilseeds, the optimal planting window closes in early January.

As we set out in our previous reports, there is optimism regarding the 2017/18 production season. The South African Weather Service suggests that the summer crop growing areas of the country could receive above normal rainfall between November 2017 and February 2018, which will benefit the crops.

The combine harvester sales were up five folds from the previous month and 11% y/y, with 20 units sold in October 2017 (Chart 1). This is in line with an increase in activity in winter crop growing areas as harvest process commences, particularly wheat growing areas of the Western Cape province.

Looking ahead – We expect the tractor sales to soften in the near term as summer grain and oilseed planting process approaches the completion stages. The combine harvesters’ sales could remain solid over the near term as winter crop harvest process continues. An important factor to monitor in the long term is the cost of servicing the farm debt as that would have direct implications on the agricultural machinery sales.

Note: In 2016, South Africa’s total farm debt was at R144.9 billion, which is a record level in a database starting from 1980.

Click below to read more recent reports by Wandile Sihlobo.

UPDATE SA tractor sales at a highest level in 20 months

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4 December 2017

 All stakeholders in the agricultural sector must work together to combat the unacceptable level of crime farm communities are facing, especially during the festive season. On November 2, a group of concerned stakeholders came together in Pretoria to share ideas on how to tackle rural safety. During this meeting, the Agri Sector Unity Forum (Asuf) was tasked with forming an inclusive subcommittee to facilitate coordinated efforts between farming communities, service providers and other stakeholders to combat crime. Asuf is an inclusive, representative body comprising of Agri SA, the African Farmers’ Union (Afasa), the National African Farmers’ Union (Nafu) and the TAU SA.

 Accordingly, Asuf recently held a meeting in Centurion to discuss the safety of all farmers, farm workers and rural communities.  Japie Grobler, chairperson of Asuf, called on all farmers and farm workers to work closely with the police and their neighbours to bring an end to crime and to ensure a safe environment for everyone. Grobler also called on the public to financially support the Agri Securitas Trust Fund in their efforts to secure farming communities.

 Farmer unions need cameras, drones, two-way radios and other technologies to help them to advance the safety of farming communities. Over the years, Agri Securitas has played a huge role in delivering a range of practical interventions to advance the safety of farmers and farm workers.

 “Criminals pose a huge threat to food security and ultimately socio-economic stability,” says Grobler. “Extra precaution, high levels of vigilance and the establishment of collaborative networks at grass roots level between farmers and the police and amongst farmers are therefore of critical importance – especially during the festive period.”

 Grobler commends the establishment of rural safety partnerships between various organised agricultural organisations in certain provinces and their efforts to stop crime and apprehend criminals. He welcomes the efforts by a wide array of stakeholders to bring about a safe rural environment within the ambit of the law.

 Regardless of their farm output, ethnicity or gender, farmers and farm workers are continuously targeted by unscrupulous criminals. Criminals have no regard for the human and constitutional rights of farmers and their workers, their contribution to food security, job creation and the economic advancement of local communities.

 The levels of crime on farms in South Africa are above international averages. The direct and indirect costs of crime to individuals, families, neighbourhoods, business, government and the economy pose a serious threat to food security and socio-economic stability. It causes a great financial loss, breakdown of trust relationships between local communities and instigates fear. Victims of crime also live with untold trauma and lasting physical and psychological scars.

 The situation has become untenable. Criminals become more brazen by the day. Not only do they target and raid livestock, farm produce and infrastructure of commercial, emerging and subsistence farmers, but they are also brutalising and killing farmers, their family members and farm workers. In some instances, livestock is brutalised and maimed while still alive.

Asuf plans on arranging meetings with the Minister of Police and Cabinet in due course and will keep the public informed about the outcomes of these meetings and the actions that will follow.

Issued by Agri SA, Directorate:  Corporate Liaison on behalf of Asuf

Enquiries

Mr Japie Grobler, Chairperson, Asuf, 0828258018

Christo van der Rheede, Secretariat Asuf, 012-643 3400 of 083 380 3492

The post Asuf Media Release: Rural safety this festive season appeared first on Agri Limpopo.

To everyone who takes a bit of time to read what we write, thank you. Best wishes for 2018.

Highlights in today’s morning note

South Africa’s average dam levels: week ended 01 January 2018 (last year’s figures in brackets – 01 January 2017)

Source: Department of Water and Sanitation and Agbiz Research

Weather:

 While temperatures could rise to levels above 26 degrees Celsius at the start of this week, there is a possibility of light rainfall in most parts of the country within the next eight days (see figure 1 – attached report). However, this will not be sufficient to significantly improve soil moisture in summer crop producing areas. Meanwhile, the Northern Cape and Western Cape provinces might remain dry and warm over the observed period.

Maize:

 The expectations of rainfall in the latter part of 2017 did not materialise in most areas, particularly the western regions. As result, the maize planting process has not yet been completed in some areas. Moreover, the areas that managed to plant on time are currently experiencing heat stress, but no major damage reported thus far.

Farmers planned to plant 2.47 million hectares of maize this season, which is 6% lower than the 2016/17 production season. About 56% of the area is set to be for white maize, with 44% for yellow maize. However, this might change due to the aforementioned delays in planting in the western regions of the country. Overall, there will be more clarity when the National Crop Estimate Committee releases its estimates on 30 January 2018.

South Africa’s maize supplies are still solid. SAGIS recently reported that the country’s maize stocks were at 8.2 million tonnes in November 2017, which is twice the volume seen in the same period in 2016. This notable uptick is mainly due to a record commercial maize production of 16.74 million tonnes in the 2016/17 season.

From a trade perspective, South Africa exported 64 206 tonnes of maize in the weeks of 09 to 29 December 2017. The leading buyer was Japan with a share of 56%, all yellow maize. This placed South Africa’s 2017/18 total maize export volume at 1.7 million tonnes, which equates to 77% of the season’s export forecast of 2.2 million tonnes.

Wheat:

In December 2017, the National Crop Estimate Committee revised its 2017 wheat production estimates down by 7% from the previous month to 1.48 million tonnes. This is 23% lower than the previous season’s crop. The downward revision was mainly due to disappointing yields in the Western Cape and Free State provinces, on the back of unfavourable weather conditions. The sixth production estimates for 2017 wheat will be released on 30 January 2018.

Overall, this implies that South Africa will have to import at least 1.80 million tonnes of wheat in the 2017/18 marketing year in order to fulfil the domestic needs. This is almost double the previous marketing year’s imports of 934 765 tonnes.

South Africa imported 48 432 tonnes of wheat in the weeks of 09 to 29 December 2017. About 66% came from Russia and 34% from Argentina. This placed 2017/18 marketing year’s wheat imports at 625 073 tonnes, which equates to 35% of the seasonal import forecast of 1.80 million tonnes (This is under the assumption that domestic production will reach 1.48 million tonnes).  

Sunflower seed:

The expectations of heavy rainfall in the summer crop growing areas of South Africa did not materialise in most areas during the festive season, particularly the western parts of the country. As a result, the sunflower seed planting process has somewhat been delayed, and the areas that have planted continue to experienced heat stress which could possibly damage the crops.

The South African farmers intended to plant 665 500 hectares of sunflower seed in the 2017/18 production season, up by 5% from the previous season. Given the aforementioned realities, this target is unlikely to be achieved. The National Crop Estimate Committee will release the preliminary area planted estimates on the 30th of January 2018.

Aside from this, the country still has large supplies from the 2016/17 production season. South Africa’s sunflower seed ending stocks were recorded at 374 117 tonnes in November 2017, down by 20% from the previous month, but up by 32% from the corresponding period last year.

In terms of trade, South Africa exported 42 tonnes of sunflower seed to Namibia in November 2017, which is well above the previous month’s exports of a mere one tonne. This brought the country’s 2017/18 sunflower seed exports to 168 tonnes – all went to regional markets, namely; Botswana, Namibia and Swaziland.

Also worth noting is that sunflower seed consumption (crushed oil and cake) declined by 3% month-on-month to 92 650 tonnes in November 2017. However, this is 59% higher than the volume utilised in November 2016.

Soybeans:

Unlike other crops, such as maize and sunflower seed, most soybean growing areas of the country managed to plant on time, with the exception of few areas in the western parts of the country which experienced delays due to dryness. The expected rainfall at the end of 2017 did not materialise in some regions, particularly the western areas, where soil moisture is still low.

The South African farmers planned to plant an area of 720 000 hectares in the 2017/18 production season. However, the current warm weather conditions could hamper this target. That said, there will be more clarity when the National Crop Estimate Committee releases its preliminary area planted data at the end of this month.

Apart from that, South Africa’s soybean consumption (crushed oil and cake) was reported at 95 433 tonnes in November 2017, up by 51% from the previous month, and 57% from November 2016.  Also worth noting is that the soybean ending stocks were at 589 106 tonnes in November 2017, down by 15% from the previous month, but double the volume seen in November 2016 due to a large harvest in 2016/17 production season.

From a trade perspective, the large soybean harvest of 1.32 million tonnes received in 2016/17 production season implies that South Africa could receive minimal imports in the 2017/18 marketing year. This is a remarkable improvement following imports of 271 098 tonnes in the previous marketing year.

The country imported 1 324 tonnes of soybean in November 2017. About 78% of this came from Zambia and the balance from Malawi. This placed South Africa’s 2017/18 soybean imports to 26 392 tonnes, which equals to 94% of the seasonal import forecast of 28 000 tonnes.

RSA Potatoes:

After a positive start this year, the South African potatoes price came under pressure in Friday’s trade session, down by 2% from the previous day, closing at R42.65 per pocket (10kg). These losses were mainly underpinned by large stocks of 776 791 pockets (10kg bag) at the beginning of the trading session.

In addition, during the session, the market saw an uptick in deliveries as harvest activity picks up after a quiet period during the Christmas holidays. This led to a 6% increase in daily stocks to 824 387 pockets (10kg bag).

RSA Fruit:

After a wobbly performance in the latter part of 2017, the fruit market started the year again on a mixed footing driven by relatively lower stocks. The prices of bananas and oranges were up by 9% and 13% from the previous day, closing at R6.78 per kilogram and R7.04 per kilogram, respectively. This was partially due to lower stocks of 289 320 tonnes of bananas and 21 088 tonnes of oranges.

Meanwhile, the price of apples was down by 2% from the previous day, closing at R8.68 per kilogram. This followed an uptick in daily stocks to 135 710 tonnes.

SAFEX beef carcass:

The SAFEX beef carcass market started the year on a quiet footing with the price flat at R44.00 per kilogram.  However, this could differ from the physical market which continues to show solid activity and volumes.

In October 2017, South African farmers slaughtered 219 393 head of cattle, up by 3% from the previous month, but 7% lower compared to October 2016. The Red Meat Levy Admin will release an update of the cattle slaughtering data later this month, and that will probably show an uptick due to strong festive season demand.

Click below to read more reports by Wandile Sihlobo

Agbiz Morning Market Viewpoint on Agri-Commodities 08 January 2018

The post Agbiz Morning Market Viewpoint on Agri-Commodities: 08 January 2018 appeared first on Agri Limpopo.

Maize:

The maize crop conditions across South Africa paint a mixed picture. The eastern regions which predominately produce yellow maize, are in fairly good shape, although currently experiencing heat stress due to the heatwave. This area mainly covers Mpumalanga, Kwa-Zulu Natal, northern parts of the Eastern Cape, as well as the eastern Free State province. In Limpopo province, farmers managed to plant the intended area and the crop also appears to be in good condition.

Meanwhile, the western regions which largely produce white maize, are in bad shape. In fact, farmers have not managed to plant all intended hectares in the North West, as well as the western parts of the Free State province.

The most recent survey from Grain SA suggests that farmers in the North West province have only planted 70% of the intended area. The crop that has been planted also appears to be in poor condition due to persistent dryness and heatwave. In the central and north-western parts of the Free State province, the crop conditions are the same as the North West province, but the area planted is at 75% of the intentions.

As indicated in our note yesterday, the South African farmers planned to plant 2.47 million hectares of maize this season, which is 6% lower than the 2016/17 production season. About 56% of the area is set to be for white maize, with 44% for yellow maize. However, this might change due to the aforementioned delays in planting in the western regions of the country. An update will be released on 30 January 2018.

In the near term, the weather forecasts promise improvements, with chances of showers of between 16 and 60 millimetres across the South African maize belt within the next eight days. If this materialises, crop conditions could improve, but there is a limited chance for additional plantings as the ‘optimal window’ has already passed.

Wheat:

It is an off-season period in the South African wheat growing areas, therefore the current dry weather conditions are not much of an issue. However, they have already negatively affected the 2017 harvest, which is estimated at 1.48 million tonnes, down by 23% from the previous season. An update of this estimate will also be released on 30 January 2018.

While imports are set to increase significantly this season in order to fulfil domestic needs, the market is well supplied for now. South Africa’s wheat stocks were at 1.05 million tonnes in November 2017, double the previous month’s volume due to large deliveries on the back of the harvest activity. However, this is 30% lower than the corresponding period in 2016.

Soybean:

South Africa’s soybean crop looks promising in Mpumalanga and Kwa-Zulu Natal provinces. With that said, some areas experienced hail damage in the past few weeks, but the extent of it is still yet clear. There are rising concerns that the current heatwave could negatively affect the crop. Fortunately, the weather forecasts for the next two weeks shows a possibility of rainfall which should ease concerns and improves crop conditions.

As indicated in yesterday’s note, the South African farmers intended to plant an area of 720 000 hectares in the 2017/18 production season. Most provinces managed to achieve the targeted area with the exception of provinces such as North West – a relatively small soybean producer – which planted roughly 85% of the intended area thus far, and it is negatively affected by dryness.

Sunflower seed:

The key sunflower seed growing areas of the country, particularly North West and north-western parts of the Free State province last received good rainfall in the second week of December 2017. As a result, the planting process has been delayed due to lower soil moisture.

A recent survey by Grain SA shows that farmers have planted roughly 40% of intended sunflower seed area in the North West province. In the north-western parts of the Free State province, the progress is much slower, with only 20% of the intended area planted thus far.

More concerning is that crops in areas that managed to plant have been negatively affected by the current heatwave. For areas that have not yet planted, the optimal planting window has narrowed. To be precise, the optimal planting window for sunflower seed closes next week in the north-western parts of the Free State and North West provinces.

Planting outside the ‘optimal planting window’ implies that crops could be negatively affected by frost later in the season, which will, in turn, lower the yields.

Overall, the weather forecasts currently paint a constructive picture of rainfall of between 16 and 60 millimetres across the sunflower seed growing areas within the next two weeks. While this will not be sufficient to replenish soil moisture, it is a welcome development following weeks of dryness.

As indicated in yesterday’s note, the South African farmers planned to plant 665 500 hectares of sunflower seed in the 2017/18 production season, up by 5% from the previous season. At the moment, there is still uncertainty as to whether this will be achieved or farmers will actually plant more. The weather developments this week will be a key deciding factor. In the end, the National Crop Estimate Committee will release the preliminary area planted estimates on 30 January 2018

RSA Potatoes:

The South African potatoes market started the week on a negative footing with the price down by 0.28% from the previous day, closing at R42.53 per pocket (10kg). These losses were on the back of large stocks of 824 387 pockets (10kg bag) at the beginning of the trading session.

However, during the day the market saw strong commercial buying interest, coupled with relatively lower deliveries on the back of slow harvest activity over the weekend. This subsequently led to a 30% decline in daily stocks to 577 342 pockets (10kg bag).

RSA fruit:

The market was again mixed in yesterday’s trade session. The prices of apples and bananas declined by 9% and 3% from the previous day, closing at R7.92 per kilogram and R7.42 per kilogram, respectively. This followed a 15% increase in apples daily stocks to 158 000 tonnes and a 3% uptick in bananas stocks to 208 000 tonnes.

Meanwhile, the daily price of oranges marginally increased by 1% to R4.98 per kilogram due to lower stocks of 24 000 tonnes (down by 4% from the previous day).

Click below to read more reports by Wandile Sihlobo

Agbiz Morning Market Viewpoint on Agri-Commodities 09 January 2018

The post Agbiz Morning Market Viewpoint on Agri-Commodities: 09 January 2018 appeared first on Agri Limpopo.