The recent update for the week ending 14 August 2017 shows that Western Cape province’s dams averaged 30%, which is a 2% improvement from last week, but 28% below the same period last year. Fortunately, the Northern Cape and Free State provinces, which are mostly irrigated are in good shape with dam levels over 80% full. 

Highlights in today’s morning note

Wheat:

The wheat crop in many parts of the Western Cape province is in a fair condition following last week’s rainfall. However, there is a need for follow-up rains due to lower soil moisture. The recent showers were not sufficient to replenish the soil moisture.

Maize:

Most parts of South Africa have already completed the harvest process. The ones that have not yet finished could get momentum from the expected drier and cool weather conditions within the next two weeks.

Click here to read more.

Soybeans:

The domestic soybean data calendar is fairly light this week with SAGIS monthly data due for release at midday on Friday. This will give an indication of the current stocks levels, monthly soybean consumption, as well as imports and exports data.

Sunflower seed:

Similar to soybeans, this week’s calendar in the South African sunflower seed market is light with one key data release on Fridaymidday. SAGIS will release monthly stocks, consumption, and trade data. Overall, the market will most likely be driven by the currency movements and traded volumes.

RSA Potatoes:

The South African potatoes market saw marginal gains in Friday’s trade session with the price up by 0.56% from the previous day, closing at R28.93 per pocket (10kg). These gains came on the back of relatively lower stocks in the market.

SAFEX beef:

The SAFEX beef market has not shown any notable movements this month due to thinly traded volumes. The price remains flat at R46.00 per kilogramme. This means that the SAFEX beef carcass prices could differ from the physical market prices.

RSA fruit:

The fruit market ended the past week on a mixed footing. The price of apples was down by 3% from the previous day, closing at R7.65 per kilogramme. Meanwhile, the prices of bananas and oranges were up by 2% and 21% from the previous day, closing at R5.78 per kilogramme and R3.92 per kilogramme, respectively. 

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This is a data-packed week, with the National Crop Estimate Committee’s seventh maize production estimates and SAGIS weekly data due for release. Any notable changes in these particular data points could lead to movements in the maize markets.

Highlights in today’s morning note

Maize:

Reuters analyst’s survey shows that South Africa’s maize production could be revised up by 1% from the previous estimate to 16.14 million tonnes. Meanwhile, Bloomberg’s survey indicates that the maize crop production estimate could remain unchanged at 15.97 million tonnes. 

Click here to read more.

Soybeans:

The expected uptick in production means that South Africa might see minimal imports of soybeans in the 2017/18 season, which will be a remarkable improvement following 2016/17 imports of 271 098 tonnes. The country imported 4 095 tonnes of soybean in July 2017, placing the country’s total imports to 13 028 tonnes.

Sunflower seed:

In terms of trade, South Africa exported 8 tonnes of sunflower seed to Swaziland and Namibia in July 2017. This brought the country’s 2017/18 sunflower seed exports to 117 tonnes. About 69% went to Swaziland, 19% to Botswana and 12% to Namibia.

RSA Potatoes:

The South African potatoes market saw marginal gains in Friday’s trade session with the price up by 0.81% from the previous day, closing at R32.32 per pocket (10kg). These gains came on the back of relatively lower stocks in the market.

SAFEX beef:

The SAFEX beef market has not shown any notable movements this month due to thinly traded volumes. The price remains flat at R46.00 per kilogramme. This means that the SAFEX beef carcass prices could differ from the physical market prices.

RSA fruit:

The fruit market ended the day mixed on Friday’s trade session. The prices of apples and oranges were up by 3% and 15% from the previous day, closing at R7.65 per kilogramme and R3.74 per kilogramme, respectively. Meanwhile, the price of bananas was down by 8% from the previous day, closing at R4.72 per kilogramme. 

Click below for previous reports:

Agbiz Morning Market Viewpoint on Agri-Commodities: 22 August 2017

Agbiz Morning Market Viewpoint on Agri-Commodities: 23 August 2017

Agbiz Morning Market Viewpoint on Agri-Commodities: 24 August 2017

South African Agricultural Commodities Weekly Wrap: 25 August 2017

The post Maize production estimates due for release. appeared first on Agri Limpopo.

RSA Fruit:

The fruit market saw widespread losses in yesterday’s trade session. The prices of apples and bananas were down by 2% and 15% from the previous day, closing at R7.51 per kilogramme and R4.03 per kilogramme, respectively. This was on a back of large stocks of 293 752 tonnes of apples and 369 984 tonnes of bananas. The price of oranges was down by 13% from the previous day, closing at R3.24 per kilogramme. However, this could be short lived due to relatively lower stocks of 185 370 tonnes, down 17% from the previous day.

Maize:

As indicated in our previous note, the focus today is on the National Crop Estimate Committee’s seventh maize production estimates which are due for release in the afternoon. Reuters analyst’s survey shows that South Africa’s maize production could be revised up by 1% from the previous estimate to 16.14 million tonnes.

Wheat:

Although the recent rainfall was not sufficient to replenish soil moisture across many fields in the Western Cape province, it benefited the crop as it is currently in a fair condition. With that said, there is an urgent need for follow up rains in order to maintain and possibly improve the crop condition.

Click here to read more.

Soybeans:

Today the National Crop Estimate Committee will release its seventh production estimates. The current estimate is 1.34 million tonnes, up 81% from the previous season’s production. The harvest process finished on positive footing with exceptional yields reported in many areas.

RSA Potatoes:

The South African potatoes market saw substantial gains in yesterday’s trade session with the price up by 4% from the previous day, closing at R33.62 per pocket (10kg). These gains came on the back of relatively lower stocks.

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The country will have over 4.00 million tonnes of maize in total as an exportable surplus for the 2017/18 marketing season.

Highlights in today’s morning note

Maize:

After the National Crop Estimate Committee revised its maize production forecast to 15.96 million tonnes in July, it has further lifted its forecast to 16.41 million tonnes – making this season’s crop the largest on record. White and yellow maize production estimates were revised up by 2% and 5% respectively from the previous estimate to 9.65 million and 6.76 million tonnes. In total, reaching a record level of 16.41 million tonnes.

Wheat:

The National Crop Estimate Committee’s first production estimate for wheat confirmed the market expectations of a possible lower harvest due to continuous drier weather conditions in key wheat producing provinces, as well as a decline in acreage.

Soybeans:

It almost seems as if the market has run out of the bullish news, the spot and March 18 contract month prices opened lower in yesterday’s trade session and remained under pressure throughout. The relatively stronger domestic currency, selling pressure and lower Chicago soybean prices were the key factors driving the market.

Click here to read more.

Sunflower seed:

The National Crop Estimate Committee surprised the market with an upward revision of 6% in sunflower seed production from the previous estimate to 870 095 tonnes. This is 15% higher than the previous season due to an increase in area plantings, as well as higher yields.

SAFEX Beef Carcass:

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, it was again a quiet day in the SAFEX beef carcass market. The price remained flat at R46.00 per kilogramme due to thinly traded volumes. This means that the SAFEX beef carcass prices could differ from the physical market prices.

RSA Fruit:

The fruit market closed on a mixed footing in yesterday’s trade session. The prices of bananas and oranges were up by 13% and 5% from the previous day, closing at R4.54 per kilogramme and R3.40 per kilogramme, respectively. Meanwhile, the price of apples was down by 3% from the previous day, closing at R7.28 per kilogramme. 

The post This season’s maize crop the largest on record. appeared first on Agri Limpopo.

Maize:

Although the focus in the market is slightly shifting to the new production season which is set to commence in October, some farmers continue to deliver old season maize to commercial silos. The total maize deliveries were reported at 66 853 tonnes in the week ending 01 September 2017.

Click here to read more.

Wheat:

The weather remains a primary focus in the domestic wheat market as the crop urgently needs moisture. Unfortunately, the forecasts have changed drastically overnight. It currently shows clear skies across the Western Cape province within the next two weeks.

Soybeans:

Yesterday there were no major data releases in the domestic soybean market and the data calendar for the rest of the week is fairly light. Therefore, market performance will largely be guided by the Chicago (soybean) price and domestic currency movements over the next few days.  

RSA Potatoes:

Yesterday the South African potatoes market withdrew its recent gains, with the price down by 3% from the previous day, closing at R40.69 per pocket (10kg).

RSA Fruit:

The fruit market ended the day mixed in yesterday’s trade session. The price of apples was up by 9% from the previous day, closing at R8.00 per kilogramme, owing to relatively lower stocks of 204 975 tonnes. Meanwhile, the prices of bananas and oranges were down by 1% and 19% from the previous day, closing at R5.91 per kilogramme and R2.77 per kilogramme, respectively. 

The post Focus in maize market shifting to new production season. appeared first on Agri Limpopo.

The second quarter agricultural GDP figures confirm that the sector is eventually out of the woods.

Data released showed that the sector grew by 33.6% q/q in the second quarter of 2017, which is significantly higher than the 22.2% q/q recorded in the first quarter of this year. This in line with the sentiment shared in the previous quarter that this positive growth path will continue throughout the year – sustained by robust agricultural output in the summer crops producing areas. Overall, we expect this positive growth path to be sustained throughout the year, but at a relatively lesser degree than what we observed in the first two-quarters of the year. 

These results mirror the increased activity in the overall agricultural sector, particularly summer grains, oilseeds, vegetables, as well as a slight recovery in the livestock industry. The 2017 total summer grains production are estimated at 18.91 million tonnes, which is double the previous season’s volume.

Click here to read more.

While the data paints an encouraging picture of the sector’s recovery, the persistent dryness is the Western Cape province remains a key concern.  This could affect the performance of the summer horticultural products, as well as winter grains and oilseeds which enable the province to contribute a lion share of 22% to the country’s agricultural economy.

Over and above, we expect this positive growth rate to continue in the coming quarters, but at a relatively lower pace. This sentiment is also echoed in the recently released Agbiz/IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index, which typically signals how South Africa’s agricultural GDP could perform in the succeeding quarters. The index registered 54 points in the third quarter, which is an expansionary territory – above 50-index points.

The post SA agricultural economy showing robust growth. appeared first on Agri Limpopo.

Maize:

The maize crop conditions across South Africa paint a mixed picture. The eastern regions which predominately produce yellow maize, are in fairly good shape, although currently experiencing heat stress due to the heatwave. This area mainly covers Mpumalanga, Kwa-Zulu Natal, northern parts of the Eastern Cape, as well as the eastern Free State province. In Limpopo province, farmers managed to plant the intended area and the crop also appears to be in good condition.

Meanwhile, the western regions which largely produce white maize, are in bad shape. In fact, farmers have not managed to plant all intended hectares in the North West, as well as the western parts of the Free State province.

The most recent survey from Grain SA suggests that farmers in the North West province have only planted 70% of the intended area. The crop that has been planted also appears to be in poor condition due to persistent dryness and heatwave. In the central and north-western parts of the Free State province, the crop conditions are the same as the North West province, but the area planted is at 75% of the intentions.

As indicated in our note yesterday, the South African farmers planned to plant 2.47 million hectares of maize this season, which is 6% lower than the 2016/17 production season. About 56% of the area is set to be for white maize, with 44% for yellow maize. However, this might change due to the aforementioned delays in planting in the western regions of the country. An update will be released on 30 January 2018.

In the near term, the weather forecasts promise improvements, with chances of showers of between 16 and 60 millimetres across the South African maize belt within the next eight days. If this materialises, crop conditions could improve, but there is a limited chance for additional plantings as the ‘optimal window’ has already passed.

Wheat:

It is an off-season period in the South African wheat growing areas, therefore the current dry weather conditions are not much of an issue. However, they have already negatively affected the 2017 harvest, which is estimated at 1.48 million tonnes, down by 23% from the previous season. An update of this estimate will also be released on 30 January 2018.

While imports are set to increase significantly this season in order to fulfil domestic needs, the market is well supplied for now. South Africa’s wheat stocks were at 1.05 million tonnes in November 2017, double the previous month’s volume due to large deliveries on the back of the harvest activity. However, this is 30% lower than the corresponding period in 2016.

Soybean:

South Africa’s soybean crop looks promising in Mpumalanga and Kwa-Zulu Natal provinces. With that said, some areas experienced hail damage in the past few weeks, but the extent of it is still yet clear. There are rising concerns that the current heatwave could negatively affect the crop. Fortunately, the weather forecasts for the next two weeks shows a possibility of rainfall which should ease concerns and improves crop conditions.

As indicated in yesterday’s note, the South African farmers intended to plant an area of 720 000 hectares in the 2017/18 production season. Most provinces managed to achieve the targeted area with the exception of provinces such as North West – a relatively small soybean producer – which planted roughly 85% of the intended area thus far, and it is negatively affected by dryness.

Sunflower seed:

The key sunflower seed growing areas of the country, particularly North West and north-western parts of the Free State province last received good rainfall in the second week of December 2017. As a result, the planting process has been delayed due to lower soil moisture.

A recent survey by Grain SA shows that farmers have planted roughly 40% of intended sunflower seed area in the North West province. In the north-western parts of the Free State province, the progress is much slower, with only 20% of the intended area planted thus far.

More concerning is that crops in areas that managed to plant have been negatively affected by the current heatwave. For areas that have not yet planted, the optimal planting window has narrowed. To be precise, the optimal planting window for sunflower seed closes next week in the north-western parts of the Free State and North West provinces.

Planting outside the ‘optimal planting window’ implies that crops could be negatively affected by frost later in the season, which will, in turn, lower the yields.

Overall, the weather forecasts currently paint a constructive picture of rainfall of between 16 and 60 millimetres across the sunflower seed growing areas within the next two weeks. While this will not be sufficient to replenish soil moisture, it is a welcome development following weeks of dryness.

As indicated in yesterday’s note, the South African farmers planned to plant 665 500 hectares of sunflower seed in the 2017/18 production season, up by 5% from the previous season. At the moment, there is still uncertainty as to whether this will be achieved or farmers will actually plant more. The weather developments this week will be a key deciding factor. In the end, the National Crop Estimate Committee will release the preliminary area planted estimates on 30 January 2018

RSA Potatoes:

The South African potatoes market started the week on a negative footing with the price down by 0.28% from the previous day, closing at R42.53 per pocket (10kg). These losses were on the back of large stocks of 824 387 pockets (10kg bag) at the beginning of the trading session.

However, during the day the market saw strong commercial buying interest, coupled with relatively lower deliveries on the back of slow harvest activity over the weekend. This subsequently led to a 30% decline in daily stocks to 577 342 pockets (10kg bag).

RSA fruit:

The market was again mixed in yesterday’s trade session. The prices of apples and bananas declined by 9% and 3% from the previous day, closing at R7.92 per kilogram and R7.42 per kilogram, respectively. This followed a 15% increase in apples daily stocks to 158 000 tonnes and a 3% uptick in bananas stocks to 208 000 tonnes.

Meanwhile, the daily price of oranges marginally increased by 1% to R4.98 per kilogram due to lower stocks of 24 000 tonnes (down by 4% from the previous day).

Click below to read more reports by Wandile Sihlobo

Agbiz Morning Market Viewpoint on Agri-Commodities 09 January 2018

The post Agbiz Morning Market Viewpoint on Agri-Commodities: 09 January 2018 appeared first on Agri Limpopo.

South Africa’s sub-soil moisture – 02 March 2018

Source: World Weather Inc.

Maize:

Last week’s showers were mainly concentrated in areas around the eastern sections of Limpopo and Mpumalanga provinces, whereas other regions remained cool and dry. With that said, the most recent report from World Weather Inc. shows that soil moisture has improved significantly across the maize belt from dryness experienced at the beginning of the year, particularly the western sections.

As a result, the maize crop is generally in good condition in most sections of the maize belt. Moreover, The expected rainfall within the next two weeks should further improve soil moisture and crop conditions.

It is worth highlighting again that the South African Weather Service forecasts a weak La Niña phase through to early autumn. This means that the maize growing regions of the country could receive good rainfall within the next two month. Overall, this reinforces the National Crop Estimates Committee’s view of a fairly good crop of 12.2 million tonnes in the 2017/18 production season.

In the region, the most recent data from Botswana’s Ministry of Agriculture shows that 2017/18 grain area plantings were at 42 800 hectares by end of February 2018, well below the area 167 562 hectares planted at the corresponding period last year.

Wheat:

Yesterday there was no new news in the domestic wheat market. The main focus today will be SAGIS weekly trade data which should give an indication of the wheat import activity.

To reiterate a point made in yesterday’s note, the upward revision of domestic wheat production to 1.5 million tonnes led a 3% downward revision of 2017/18 wheat import estimate from last month to 1.85 million tonnes. This is however still the second largest import volume on record in a dataset starting from 1936.

On the global front – The International Grains Council forecasts 2017/18 global wheat imports at 180 million tonnes, up by 1% from the previous season. The key importing regions are North Africa and Southeast Asia, with imports estimated at 29 million and 27 million tonnes, respectively. In North Africa region, the key buyers are Egypt, Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia.

Sub-Saharan Africa is also amongst the key wheat importing regions with 2017/18 wheat imports estimated at 23 million tonnes, up by 7% from the previous season. The leading buyers within this region are Nigeria, Sudan, South Africa and Kenya.

Soybeans:

South Africa’s 2017/18 soybean production season started in a better position than other crops due to rainfall in the eastern sections of the country. The crop is currently in good conditions, despite the dry and cool conditions experienced in the past few days.

Looking ahead, the weather forecasts promise higher rainfall within the next two weeks, which should further improve soil moisture and benefit the crop. This actually reinforces the National Crop Estimates Committee’s view of a possible record harvest of 1.4 million tonnes in 2017/18 production, up by 5% y/y.

While this is a welcome development, hail is always a key concern for the eastern sections of South Africa, especially when there are expectations of heavy rainfall. In the past few weeks, hail affected some areas in KwaZulu Natal and Mpumalanga provinces, but the impact on crops was minimal.

From a global demand perspective, China recently bought 198 000 tonnes of soybeans from the US. In fact, the Chinese soybean demand will remain solid throughout the season. The USDA forecasts China’s 2017/18 soybean imports at 97 million tonnes, up by 4% from the previous season. Moreover, this constitutes 65% of 2017/18 global soybean imports.

From a supply point of view, Informa Economics revised its estimate for Brazil’s 2017/18 soybean production up by 2 million tonnes from the previous month to 114 million tonnes. This is almost in line with the previous season’s harvest. Meanwhile, Argentina’s 2017/18 soybean production estimate was revision down by 7 million tonnes from last month to 44 million tonnes, owing to persistent dryness. This is roughly 20% lower than the previous season.

RSA Potatoes:

After recording losses on Friday’s trade session, the South African potatoes market was fairly quiet in yesterday’s trade session despite the large stock of 1.1 million pockets (10kg bag) at the start of the session.

However, towards the end of the session the market experienced commercial buying interest, coupled with relatively lower deliveries on the back of slow harvest activity during the weekend. This subsequently led to a 38% decline in daily stocks to 666 195 pockets (10kg bag).

RSA Fruit:

The fruit market started the week on a negative footing owing to large stocks. The prices of apples and bananas were down by 2% and 8% from the previous day, closing at R7.23 and R6.47 per kilogram, respectively. This was on the back of large stock of 216 00 tonnes of apples and 346 000 tonnes of bananas.

Moreover, the price of oranges declined by 30% from the previous day, closing at R8.31 per kilogram due to commercial selling. Looking ahead, the oranges market should soon gain ground as stocks are at lower levels of 4 000 tonnes, compared to levels of over 50 000 tonnes in December 2017.

Full report available below.

Agbiz Morning Market Viewpoint on Agri-Commodities 06 March 2018

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A closer look at the data shows that the agricultural GDP grew by 37.5% q/q in the fourth quarter of 2017 , following 41.1% q/q growth in the third quarter. This was against our expectations of a moderate growth pace at levels below 20% q/q, as the last quarter of the year is typically characterised by limited activity in the crop and horticultural sub-sectors (see Chart 1 on the attached file).

Following a rebound in South Africa’s agricultural production, the exports also lifted past the US$10.0 billion for the first time (up 15% y/y), boosted by growth in exports of edible fruits, beverages, spirits, vegetables, grains and other agricultural products (see Chart 2).

It is also worth noting that the in the past few years, the Agbiz/IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index proved to be a good leading indicator of agricultural GDP performance (see Chart 1). However, the recent notable deterioration in confidence might not be followed by a similar magnitude of a decline in agricultural GDP, as factors driving each variable are quite distinct at the moment. Confidence is mainly pressured by uncertainty regarding land reform, but this hasn’t had a material impact on agricultural investments yet. The agricultural sector could slow in performance in 2018 owing to a 5% y/y decline in area planted to summer crops to 3.8 million hectares, as well as an expected decline in Western Cape agricultural production (see Chart 3).

Full report available below.

SA agricultural economy grew by 17.7% in 2017

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Maize:

The weather conditions could remain favourable throughout the production season. The medium-term forecasts promise above average rainfall within the next two months across the maize belt, which should further improve soil moisture and benefit the crop.

From the data front, today the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) will release its monthly update of the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. Last month, the agency placed South Africa’s 2017/18 maize production estimate at 12.5 million tonnes (commercial and non-commercial maize production.), down from last season’s record harvest of 17.5 million tonnes.

While the focus is on the new production season, some farmers continue to deliver old season maize to commercial silos. The total maize deliveries were reported at 4 241 tonnes in the week ending 02 March 2018, well below the previous week’s deliveries of 24 593 tonnes. About 61% of this was white maize, with 39% being yellow maize. Overall, South Africa’s 2017/18 marketing year’s total maize deliveries for “week 1 to 44” currently stand at 15.3 million tonnes. Of this total, 60% is white maize with 40% being yellow maize.

Wheat:

The volumes of wheat recently delivered to commercial silos declined significantly from levels seen the previous weeks. This mirrors the reduction in activity in the farms after the completion of the harvest process .

About 2 848 tonnes of wheat were delivered to commercial silos in the week ending 02 March 2018. This is four-fold lower than the volume delivered the previous week, and well below the volumes delivered in the previous months when the harvest process was at its peak. Overall, this placed South Africa’s winter wheat producer deliveries for “week 1 to 22” of the 2017/18 marketing year at 1.44 million tonnes.

On the global front – Making headlines yesterday was the intergovernmental contract between Iran and Russia, which could potentially lead to about 1.5 million tonnes of wheat exports to Iran in the coming years. This will be an important market for Russia as the country continues to see a solid increase in domestic wheat production.

In its February report, the USDA placed Russia’s 2017/18 wheat production at 85 million tonnes, up by 17% from the previous season owing to an increase in area planted, as well as expected higher yields. This is a notable contribution to global supplies, making up a share of 11%.

Soybeans:

The expected rainfall has not yet materialised in most soybean growing areas of the country. The only areas that received light showers on Tuesday evening were Bethlehem, Fouriesburg, Heilbron, Harrismith, Lindley, Ventersburg, Senekal, Morgenzon and Vereeniging.

Nevertheless, this is not much of a concern as soybean growing areas of South Africa still have a fair amount of soil moisture from rainfall received in the past few weeks. Moreover, the forecast rainfall within the next two weeks is in line with the South African Weather Service’s expectations of above normal rainfall within the next two months across the summer crop growing areas of the country.

In global markets – The global soybean demand remains solid, underpinned by strong demand from China. The USDA recently reported a sale of 120 000 tonnes of US soybean to China. As highlighted in our previous note, China National Grain and Oils Information Centre forecasts the country 2017/18 soybean imports at 96 million tonnes, slightly below the USDA’s estimate of 97 million tonnes.

RSA Potatoes:

The potatoes market lost ground in yesterday’s trade session owing to a large stock of 739 972 tonnes at the start of the session. The price was down by 6% from the previous day, closing at R34.95 per pocket (10kg).

In the session, the market saw an uptick in deliveries owing to ongoing harvest activity in most parts of the country. This led to a 12% increase in daily stocks to 831 606 pockets (10kg bag).

RSA fruit:

The fruit market recorded widespread losses in yesterday’s trade session. The prices of apples and bananas were down by 1% and 3% from the previous day, closing at R8.21 and R7.03 per kilogram. These losses were mainly due to large stocks of 176 000 tonnes of apples and 210 000 tonnes of bananas.

The price of oranges declined by 4% from the previous day and settled at R4.63 per kilogram. This was also pressured by a recovery in stocks to 61 000 tonnes, from levels of below 30 000 tonnes in the past few days.

Full report attached below

Agbiz Morning Market Viewpoint on Agri-Commodities 08 March 2018

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